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Advisor
WCMO
Posts: 466
Registered: ‎06-30-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk March 8

[ Edited ]

I'm stupid, I know.

 

It seems to make sense that carryout would have some minimum because1) at some point prices actually increase enough to prevent running out, and 2) at some point basic needs that cannot be suspended would be met from imports and/or substitutes.

 

If the needed product is in higher demand than the supply will allow at current prices, then fundamentally cash prices will increase to further ration the supply, whether or not it is reflected in the futures market structure.  This "demand-pull" on prices is a quite powerful fundamental.  It's not always reflected in the futures market -- some "sticky" market actions -- users move from a buffer supply to more hand-to-mouth sourcing, information not readily available to all players at the same time, expectations (futures) for the next several months out might not accurately reflect the current (now) situation.

____________________________________

"My reading of history convinces me that most bad government results from too much government." - Thomas Jefferson

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Veteran Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 3,716
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk March 8

Remember my post a few days ago about the Gov. coming out with reports to manipulate markets and prices to stay where they needed them too. ANYONE?
Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,075
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk March 8

[ Edited ]

yes, i'll speak up Shaggy. i do remember you saying this....they can temporarily manipulate mkts, but in the end, ---i believe Palouser would agree----the actual economics of a market will be revealed in cash for sure and in futures to a lesser or greater degree, depending on what the spec $$ wants to do.

 

let's use example of beans. bearish #'s on the surface-----so mkt reacts by selling for 7 minutes, only to give the strong hands an opportunity to buy the reality, if you will. do you remember bean chart i posted yesterday (it did trade a little higher than i had charted--but--) w/ a buy around 1450?

 

ScreenShot001.gif

 

 

 

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,088
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk March 8

CX1,

Man do those charts look crazy.  I sometimes do not bother with them.  I buy based on gut and price. 

Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,075
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk March 8

[ Edited ]

I know you're not crazy about my charts, gio.....rather, they make you crazy.:smileywink:

 

----sometimes they make me crazy, too.........and i override them w/ good or sometimes bad decision.

 

main point today is beans are telling us they don't believe USDA---trading back to unch

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,042
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Report timing

[ Edited ]

roarintiger1,

 

Here are photos of corn harvesting in Argentina. This farmer was harvesting corn, today. The field was finished an hour ago (1:00pm CT) and the yield was 107qq/ha with a humidity of 16%. This is well above what the farmer had expected.

 

Argentina Harvest.jpg

 

 

Argentina corn harvest 2.jpg

Senior Contributor
Buckley_HF
Posts: 165
Registered: ‎12-29-2011
0

Re: Report timing

Happy to see the corn action today and even soybeans recovered.  Have a good weekend guys.  This weekend has been a heck of a ride.  Time for some stress relieving adult beverages. 

Senior Contributor
farmerguy89
Posts: 973
Registered: ‎06-30-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk March 8

yup. The low is in. Can't believe the USDA for a second. Wheat rallied off the face of record plantings/production and a negative day. USDA needs to wake the **bleep** up. 

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,088
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk March 8

[ Edited ]

Looking at the price and the gains today, looks like no one believed the REPORT or thought it was crap. Interesting trade for the next week.   I am still going long beans.

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,244
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk March 8

Mike that corn does not look very healthy.   Like it dried out late.  Stalks looking like that here would be 12-13 moisture or lower.

sw