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Veteran Contributor
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Floor Talk March 9 Report Day

[ Edited ]

At the close:

At the close, the May corn futures settled 5 1/4¢ lower at $3.67, while December futures finished 4 1/4¢ lower at $3.88. May soybean futures closed 10 3/4¢ lower at $10.11. November soybean futures ended 5 3/4¢ lower at $10.04 1/2. May wheat futures closed 3¢ lower at $4.44. May soy meal futures finished $2.60 per short ton lower at $328.50. May soy oil futures closed $0.43 lower at 33.11¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.23 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 51 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 11am:

At mid-session, the May corn futures are 2¢ lower at $3.70, while December futures are 1 3/4¢ lower at $3.91. May soybean futures are 11 1/4¢ lower at $10.10 1/2. November soybean futures are 8¢ lower at $10.02. May wheat futures are 1 1/4¢ higher at $4.48. May soy meal futures are $4.10 per short ton lower at $327.00. May soy oil futures are $0.40 lower at 33.14¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.19 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 8 points higher.

 

Mike

 

USDA SAYS:

 

U.S. soybean ending stocks raised to 435 million bushels, up from 420 million. Brazil's soybean production at 108.0 million metric tons v. 104.0 last month.

 

 

TRADE REACTION:

--Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s Senior Market Analyst, says that the big increases in Brazil production appear to be the headlines for the report. 
“The soybean estimate is higher than Brazil’s CONAB, the government agency,and that is wild,” Scoville says.
“The US data shows better than expected demand for corn but unchanged ending stocks, which I can’t figure out,” Scoville says. 
USDA cut export demand, due to the brazil numbers and soybeans are down. 
“Market noting the increases in S American production and sensing a lot of competition for sales, and these ideas are probably warranted,” Scoville says.

 

--Mike North, President Commodity Risk Management Group, says that as expected, world supplies were the thing to watch in this month's WASDE release.  Corn ending stocks grew by 3 MMT, while soybean stocks were lifted 2.5 MMT.  In combination with the decline in US soybean exports, soybeans felt pressure following the updated numbers.  The US corn balance sheet was left unchanged in terms of ending stocks with 50 million bu moving from feed to ethanol.  Wheat also saw global balance sheets rise, with Australia the major contributor.

--Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities grain analyst, says that the focus on today's USDA crop report reported that the US export pace slowing down in corn and soybeans and Brazil corn and soybean crop much larger than expected.

 

--Jason Ward, Northstar Commodity Investment grain analyst, says that the report showed the same old story for the grain markets, more production and more demand, but more production continues to offset that increasing demand.

"This leaves the grain markets stuck in the same old ranges, or maybe lower ranges. We do think producers and traders will be hard pressed to build large sales or short positions before the US growing season, but if you are keeping score, the cushion for yield adversity just got a little softer with these widespread production increases," Ward says.

 

--Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading owner, says that the story of today’s report is pretty straightforward; record global production of corn, wheat and soybeans is being absorbed by record global demand, with a slight production surplus resulting in minimal gains to inventories and minimal price declines post report. "The slight gains to global grain inventories are keeping consumer prices in check for now, but the multi-billion dollar question is “How many years in a row can the world’s farmers continue to meet continuous year-over-year record global demand increases for grains?” Brazil is having a fantastic production year, but China is using record amounts of beans, India is using record amounts of wheat, and U.S. ethanol producers are using record amounts of corn; global production levels for the coming crop year need to stay high to meet seemingly insatiable global demand."



Mike

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Corn and beans were lower again overnight ahead of today's WASDE report. Corn lost about 1.5 cents while beans were off a nickel. Wheat was down about 2 cents in overnight trading. The USDA is expected to raise its outlook for global corn and soybeans stockpiles and raise its outlook for Brazilian corn production in today's report. In weather news, the dry weather in much of the Midwest and Plains has abated but there are still several counties under a burn ban this morning. Six people were reportedly killed by wildfires yesterday -- the dry weather is no joke. In North Dakota, temperatures are expected to dip as low as minus-40 degrees Fahrenheit overnight into Friday morning, so if you're up there, bundle up. 


Here's what happened overnight:

 

Brent Crude Oil = 2.3% lower. 

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 2.1% lower.

Dollar = down 0,1%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures lower in pre-market trading.

World Markets = Global stocks lower, following oil futures. 

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Esteemed Advisor
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Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk March 9 Report Day

The USDA lowering soybean exports is a complete joke.   They were already behind by over 100 million before the report.  I think they are close to 150 million behind now.

Soybeans are still "on sale".   Demand will continue.