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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,099
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk March 9 (Report Day)

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The May corn futures settled 9 1/2 cents higher at $6.45. The May soybean contract finished 3/4 of a cent lower at $13.37 3/34. The May wheat futures ended 8 1/4 cents higher at $6.42.  The May soymeal futures closed $4.50 per short ton lower at $362.70. The May soyoil futures settled $0.88 higher at $54.27.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.73 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 34 points.

 

Mike

-------

At 11:35am:

 

Soybeans are now lower, again. Geez, this market is hard to keep up with today. Wow!

 

Mike

---------

At mid-session:

The May corn futures trade 14 cents higher at $6.49 1/2. The May soybean contract is trading 8 cents higher at $13.46 1/2 1/2. The May wheat futures are trading 14 1/4 cents higher at $6.49.  The May soymeal futures are trading $0.70 per short ton lower at $366.50. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.96 higher at $54.35.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.21 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 40 points.

 

A well respected floor trader says, "The Informa survey looks bullish at face value to Nov bean. Expect July Nov beans to peak here at 45-50 cent inverse. Old crop carryout is not tight enough to justify inverse. But, new crop balance sheet looks tight. So, expect Nov beans in a 12.70-13.70 range this Spring, higher if there is weather. But, this survey is as of January, before bean rallied relative to corn and wheat. We hear some SRW wheat acreage, in the east, will be torn out with beans and corn planted. Heard that Minnesota tearing up new acreage CRP and wheat etc…will switch. So, March planting intentions may capture a little more soybean acreage than the 75 million. We would need 77 million to be comfortable and bearish on new crop from these prices.
 
The farmer should give back wheat acreage where he can and plant beans."

 

Mike

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At 10:31am:

Informa, the private analyst firm, released updated U.S. Planting Acreage estimates Friday:

 

Corn=95.5 million acres

Soybeans=75.1 million

All Wheat= 57.745 million

Spring Wheat=13.8 million

 

What say you? Do you see 95.5 million acres of corn. And, this number seems to keep growing. How about 96-98 million acres? I'm hearing a lot of CRP acres, set to expire, are going back into production. Wow! And what about that soybean acreage number, 75.1? I thought we were talking about 74.0 for so long. What do you think?

 

Mike

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At 10:20am:

Stand-by for Informa's new U.S. Planting Acreage numbers at 10:30am. We'll have them for you right here. Stand-by.

 

Mike

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At 9:55am:

May soybeans are now 11 1/2 cents at $13.51, May corn is up 8 1/2 cents at $6.44 and May wheat is up 2 cents at $6.37. What a volatile market this morning?

 

Mike

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At 9:50am:

Corn and soybeans have fallen into negative territory, wheat a tick or two higher.

 

Mike

------

At the open:

The May corn futures trade 1/4 of a cent higher at $6.35 3/4. The May soybean contract is trading 2 cents higher at $13.40 1/2. The May wheat futures are trading 1/4 of a cent higher at $6.35 1/4.  The May soymeal futures are trading $0.74 per short ton lower at $366.50. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.70 higher at $54.10.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.75 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 48 points.

 

Mike

------------

At 8:43am:

The Over-the-Counter markets are trading corn up 1/2 of a cent, soybeans trade but nobody cares, and wheat is up 2 cents.

 

The floor talk revolves around traders wanting to run this soybean market up this morning, only to turnaround and sell it. So, buying the Nov. and selling the July bean contracts, on a higher open.

 

Mike

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At 8:30am:

Early Calls:

Corn 2-3 higher
Beans 10-12 higher
Wheat 5-7 higher.

 

Note: Having said that about the Early Calls, one analyst says selling the open and buying back on a dip next week might be away to respond to this report.

 

Mike

-------

At 7:31am:

WASDE Report:

Brazil soybeans=   68.5 mmt vs. average analyst estimate of 69.5 mmt.

Argentina soybeans=  46.5  mmt  vs. average analysts estimate of 47.0 mmt

Argentina corn=  22.0  mmt.   vs. average analysts estimate of 21.3 mmt

U.S. corn ending stocks=801 million bushels

U.S. soybean ending stocks=275 million bushels

 

Mike

----------------

Trade Reaction:

One floor trader says, "Immediately the bean stocks staying unchanged is surprising until we remember who is publishing the report. Simple truth is the SA crop is shrinking further as shrinking crops always do. We could get into the whole politics of maintaining what almost everyone believes to be uh, fertilizer, but that has been ad nauseum. I think corn is inline as China plays the game of will we buy or won't we? Common knowledge that they report they are stocked well, but just like the USDA I'll let their history of "adjustments" tell you how I really feel. They haven't curbed human reproduction, so a true slow down in grain imports is unlikely any time soon. Perhaps an effort to level off, but I don't see a decrease. Wheat was also a surprise in theory, but I think Eastern Europe is in rougher shape than acknowledged, but we won't see confirmation for a bit. Perhaps a little truth in advertising by the USDA? Stranger things have happened."

 

Yet, one analyst says, "The only change in US stocks was a 20 million bushel reduction in the wheat stocks, surprised they left beans unchanged, corn not so much as they lowered corn 50 million in each of the last 2 reports, so in a nutshell it is neutral corn/soy and a little friendly to the wheat.
 
Global numbers were also friendly to wheat as we are finally chewing through some of this record world wheat supply.
 
Brazil Soybeans down 3.5 MMT (friendly) and Argentina soy down 1.5 MMT also constructive.
 
One analyst says, "The reports contain nothing that has not been talked about here.  The South America sbs estimates are right in line with trade ideas.  Corn is too.  Maybe the biggest surprise is the increase in wheat demand and the cut in ending stocks.  Prices are higher in beans and wheat overnight, maybe we open about there.  Corn mixed might be the call too.  Interested to see if we can hold this, the reports are price positive but no shocks and so maybe we see some buy the runmor and sell the fact plus some weekend liquidation into the close.  I am not sure."

 

Yet another analyst says, "Bummer, the government says south American production way down but kept export projections for corn and beans at a stand still not wanting to create any smaller stocks here than we already have helping to keep grains from spiraling higher."

 

And another analyst describes this report like this:  "The report is quite neutral across the board, with the exception of a slight downward revision in global inventories for wheat and coarse grains. Soybean production in South America is reduced, but the markets were expecting lowing ending stock levels here in the US, which did not occur. While the balance sheet for old crop corn remains especially tight, attention will now turn to weather and spring planting issues in the Northern Hemisphere, where early planting could alleviate concerns about end of season old crop tightness. Feed grain use is up across the board, which indicates increased protein consumption patterns remain intact in the emerging market countries. Markets will continue guessing future levels of Chinese imports of soybeans and corn. Weather and imports are the focus going forward."

Mike

--------

At 6:40am:

Early calls: Subject to this morning's WASDE Reports to be released at 7:30am CST. Overnight, beans traded up 15 cents, corn up 4, and wheat up 5 cents.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.27 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading mixed ahead of the U.S. monthly Jobs Report. 

World Markets=Higher.

 

Watch for trader reaction to the WASDE Report right here at 7:30am..

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,099
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk March 9 (Report Day)

[ Edited ]

Brazil's stats agency has estimated that country's 2011-12 soybean crop at 67.52mmt, even lower than other in-country estimates this week. Will USDA print a number even lower?

 

Mike

Frequent Contributor
agmr
Posts: 58
Registered: ‎12-21-2011
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Re: Floor Talk March 9 (Report Day)

Remainder : WATCH OUT ..... Weather , Argentina

The next 20  fall begins , marking a major change in the climate scenario, which will go from warm and humid conditions that prevailed during the summer to an environment with low rainfall and frequent cold air intakes that characterizes the season .

From mch 15-21  will continue to have  blowing winds from the south, emphasizing the drop in temperatures.

The central and southern Cordoba, northeastern La Pampa, the south of Santa Fe, southern Entre Rios and Buenos Aires observed minimum temperatures below 10 ° C, with a focus on values ​​lower than 5 ° C on some parts of southeastern Buenos Aires.
The northeast of San Luis, the center of Cordoba and Buenos Aires  recorded minimum temperatures below 10 ° Celsius. Although this phenomenon does not represent an immediate risk, the low temperatures that prevail for several days delay the crops implanted late – about 20 %-, increasing their vulnerability to more intense cold weather that ussually  takes place later

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,267
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: Floor Talk March 9 (Report Day)

world stocks down............wheat???????????hmmm..............

Advisor
vrbuck
Posts: 688
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk March 9 (Report Day)

[ Edited ]

one word.....boring......world corn producion up roughly one million metric tons,  world supply down one million metric tons from las month.  US numbers are the same.

 

Wheat carryouts while decreased in the world column are still the biggest ending stocks in years.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,099
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk March 9 (Report Day)

USDA left Argentina's corn crop unchanged and raised Brazil's by 1.0 million metric tons. What do you think about those numbers?

 

Mike

Frequent Contributor
agmr
Posts: 58
Registered: ‎12-21-2011
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Re: Floor Talk March 9 (Report Day)

what s your opinion on the jul/nov beans spread currently at 45 cts ?

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,099
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk March 9 (Report Day)

I can say this, the floor traders are talking about buying the Nov. and selling the July soybean futures contracts, on the higher open.

 

Are you long soybeans?  What is your position?

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

Frequent Contributor
agmr
Posts: 58
Registered: ‎12-21-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk March 9 (Report Day)

thanks

all our farmers are long here even with higher premiums every day . Short crops get shorter. From tdys numbers , cut 1 mln in PY , 1 mln ARg and 1 mln BRZ

 

Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,159
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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You missed an important fact on wheat

Production of wheat this last year was 40 MMT higher - and yet the Inventories are not increasing. There is a world of meaning in that - for wheat AND corn.