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marketeye
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Floor Talk May 10 (Report Day)

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The July corn futures closed 19 cents lower at $5.87 1/4, while the Dec. contract endes 9 1/2 cents lower at $5.07 1/4. The July soybean contract finished 25 cents higher $14.55, while the Nov. 2012 contract ended 25 1/2 cents higher at $13.59. The July wheat futures finished 1 1/2 cents higher at $6.01 1/2. The July soymeal futures closed $8.30 per short ton higher at $424.30 and July soyoil futures closed up $0.64 at $53.46. 
In the outside markets, the N
YMEX crude oil is $0.35 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 55 points.

 

Mike

------

At 12:30pm:

Farm markets remain headed in opposite directions, with soybeans trading higher by double-digits and corn lower by the same.

 

One analyst says, "There is a major disconnect between USDA wheat and corn assumptions. It sees big use of wheat instead of corn, but have cash average price for wheat so far above corn that it could not happen. Also, the USDA has a big rebound in corn use, despite assuming wheat is being fed instead.   Market action is pretty logical given the USDA numbers presented, i.e. everything bearish for corn and everything bullish for soybeans."

 

Separately, the new weather forecast for the remainder of the month calls for warm temperatures and little if any rain, for the Midwest."

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The July corn futures trade 11 34 cents lower at $5.95 1/2, while the Dec. contract falls 9 cents at $5.07 3/4. The July soybean contract is trading 19 1/2 cents higher $14.49 1/2, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 22 cents higher at $13.55 1/2. The July wheat futures are trading 1/4 of a cent higher at $6.00 1/2. The July soymeal futures are trading $5.80 per short ton higher at $421.80 and July soyoil futures trade up $0.63 at $53.45. 
In the outside markets, the N
YMEX crude oil is $0.31 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 29 points.

 

Mike

-----

At 10am:

Beans are up double-digits while Dec. corn approaches trading with a 4 in front of its price. Can you hear the tractors planting corn idling down as we speak, and two-way communication devices beeping followed by a sound of "bring me those bean bags"?

 

Mike

--------------

 

 

At the open:

The July corn futures trade 13 1/2 cents lower at $5.93, while the Dec. contract falls 8 cents at $5.07. The July soybean contract is trading 22 cents higher $14.53, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 22 cents higher at $14.53. The July wheat futures are trading 3 3/4 cents lower at $5.96. The July soymeal futures opened $8.40 per short ton higher at $424.30 and July soyoil futures trade up $0.61 at $52.93. 
In the outside markets, the N
YMEX crude oil is $0.47 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 55 points.

 

Mike

------

At 8:45am:

New Early Calls:

Old crop corn called steady, new crop corn 5-10 cents lower.

Old crop soybeans  up 10-20 cents and new crop up 20-30, according to the Dow Jones Newswire.

 

Mike

----

At 7:45am:

Early Calls: Corn limit down, soybeans 30-50 higher or 'limit up, and wheat to follow corn's direction.

 

Mike

------

At 7:30am:

USDA Says:

U.S. 2011-12 Soybean Carryout=210 million bushels, compared to the average trade estimate 221 million bushels and the USDA's April estimate of  250 million.

For 2012/2013, Soybean Carryout=145 million bushels vs. the average analyst estimate of 170 million bushels.

 

2011-12 Corn Carryout= 851 million bushels, vs. the average analysts estimate of 758 million bushels and the USDA's April estimate of 801 million.

2012-13 Corn Carryout=1.88 billion bushels vs. the average analyst estimate of 1.704 billion bushels.

 

2011-12 Wheat Carryout=768 million bushels, compared to the average analyst estimate of 781 million bushels and the USDA's April estimate of 793 million bushels.

2012-13 Wheat Carryout=    million bushels vs. the average analyst estimate of 805 million bushels.

 

WORLD PRODUCTION
Argentina Corn=21.5 million metric tons compared to the USDA's April estimate of 21.5 mmt.

Brazil Corn=67.0 mmt, compared to the previous estimate of 62.0 mmt.
Brazil Soybean=65.0 mmt vs. the average trade estimate of 45.0 mmt, vs. the USDA's April estimate of 66.0 mmt. Argentina Soybean=42.5 mmt.  vs. the April estimate of 45.0 mmt.At 7am:

 

What do you think about these numbers?  Bearish

 

Mike

-----------

Trade Reaction:

One analyst is saying, "The report reflects a staggering amount of anticipated new crop corn production which should provide a much needed increase in corn stocks. The ability of US farmers to produce this amount of corn is impressive and could hopefully help temper price increases in the soybean complex. The soybean balance sheet is extremely tight, which leaves no room for supply disruptions or yield declines for beans this year. The soybean balance sheet looks like it will remain very tight through the new crop year, which should keep the corn to soybean price ratio favorable to soybeans for next year, but that may be too little too late depending in part upon China’s continuing needs and its ability to source non-US supplies. Wheat supplies are ample but tightening in the face of steady demand. The entire report confirms healthy global demand patterns for grains."


--One analyst says, "The surprise was the bearish old crop corn inventory and with new crop carry on the high end expect a lower open. Beans over sold and with new crop carry on the low end of expectations we open higher and hold."


--One floor trader says, "I'm hearing limit up soybeans and limit down corn, on the open."

 

--One analyst says, "Corn sticks out as bearish across old and new crop. How they raised old corn carryout is beyond me.
 
851 old crop corn is up 50 million bushels despite ethanol hanging in there using more than forecast, exports beating their forecast, it doesn’t matter. Beans were neutral-to-friendly, as was wheat."

 

--One floor trader says, "Pretty simple. Bullish beans and really bearish corn."

 

Mike

--------------

 

--Japan buys 151,416 mt of U.S., Can., and Aust. milling wheat.

--China reports that its April soybean imports totaled 4.88 mmt, up 26% on year. And its Jan-April soybean imports totaled 18.15 mmt, up 22.3% on year.

 

Mike

---------

At 6:05am:

Early calls: Subject to this morning's USDA Supply/Demand and World Production Reports at 7:30am. Overnight, corn is up 4 cents,  soybeans are trading 14 cents higher and wheat up 4.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.53 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen falling ahead of Jobs Report and weaker China economic news.

World Markets=Mixed.

 

Watch for USDA data results and reaction right here at 7:30am.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,188
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 10 (Report Day)

World stocks are diving, due to China's exports and imports rising slower than expected. Actually, China's agricultural commodities fared much better than other sectors in today's report.

 

Having said that, do you see China's weaker-than-expected news trumping this morning's USDA numbers? How long do you see this Report traded today?

 

Mike

Advisor
jrsiajdranch
Posts: 2,123
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 10 (Report Day)

I am of the opinion it won't even be traded.

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,593
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk May 10 (Report Day)

Soybean numbers look bullish.......

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Advisor
jrsiajdranch
Posts: 2,123
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 10 (Report Day)

THese numbers give the traders an excuse to trade lower and the farmer a scapegoat in USDA to blame for the fact that markets are going lower. Howevr with the deflationary bent in commodities I think that is the reason we go lower.  Nuff said about this non event. I think I will cut hay and plant corn today. Listening to the farm markets should be interesting today.

Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 792
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 10 (Report Day)

Since we have positive basis ALL OVER the corn belt I don't believe that corn carry over number, I know that Brazil raised a 2nd corn crop down there but still.   Imagine that I don't believe a USDA report number.  

 

The beans I think are bullish number and wheat,  How we can go from big wheat numbers to less wheat is beyond me. 

 

I think the whole thing is they don't want $7 plus corn furtures on an election year.   To much media attention.   

 

Is there anything in the next farm bill about cutting funding for reports???   

 

 

 

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,136
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 10 (Report Day)

[ Edited ]
What is so bearish about the Soybean numbers????? There is less forecasted and less inventory......and China is buying like crazy.
Senior Contributor
Buckley_HF
Posts: 165
Registered: ‎12-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk May 10 (Report Day)

Soybeans looks bullish to me. New crop corn is assuming ALOT. Old crop corn is in my opinion why the USDA has NO credibility anymore. Cash market and futures will diverge. Futures not serving a purpose anymore
Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,593
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk May 10 (Report Day)

Would be interesting to see a summary on where the old crop corn is......Maybe from the satellites they can see thru steel and concrete grain bins....:smileywink:

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Frequent Contributor
NW IA
Posts: 25
Registered: ‎05-15-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 10 (Report Day)

Bearish for corn and bullish for soybeans.  The question is, does corn pull beans lower or do beans pull corn higher.  The growing season has just begun, and weather will rapidly become what is traded rather than USDA reports.