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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk May 15

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The July futures corn contract settled 2cents lower at $6.50. New-crop Dec. futures finished 6 cents lower at $5.31. The July soybean futures contract finished 2 cents lower at $14.12, new-crop Nov. soybeans closed 4 cents lower at $12.09. July wheat futures ended 17 cents lower at $6.93 per bushel. The July soymeal futures closed $1.30per short ton lower at $410.50. The July soyoil futures ended $0.41 lower at $49.35.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.05 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 28 points higher.

 

Mike

-------

At mid-session:

The July futures corn contract is trading 3 cents higher at $6.56. New-crop Dec. futures are 1 cent lower at $5.36. The July soybean futures contract is trading 2 cents lower at $14.13, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 1 cent higher at $12.14. July wheat futures are trading 8 cents lower at $7.02 per bushel. The July soymeal futures are trading $2.00 per short ton lower at $409.80. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.15 lower at $49.61.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.14 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 64 points higher.

 

Mike

------------

At 10:55am:

Ethanol production is back!  According to EIA data, ethanol production averaged 857,000 barrels per day (b/d) — or 35.99 million gallons daily. That is up 14,000 b/d from the week before and tied for highest of the year. The four-week average for ethanol production stood at 853,000 b/d for an annualized rate of 13.08 billion gallons, according to the Renewable Fuel Association's press release.

Stocks of ethanol stood at 16.4 million barrels. That is a 2.5% decrease from last week and the lowest since at least the week ending 11/04/2011. Stocks dropped below a 20-day supply (based on average blender/refiner input.)

 

 

Mike

-----

At the open:

The July futures corn contract opened 6 cents lower at $6.46. New-crop Dec. futures opened 5 cents lower at $5.33. The July soybean futures contract opened 4 cents lower at $14.11, new-crop Nov. soybeans opened 3 cents higher at $12.17. July wheat futures opened 5 cents lower at $7.05 per bushel. The July soymeal futures opened $2.50 per short ton lower at $409.30. The July soyoil futures opened $0.14 lower at $49.62.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.10 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 35 points higher.

 

Mike

---------

At 8:00am:

 

--USDA announces Wednesday that China bought 171,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for 2013-14 delivery.

--Deere & Co.'s quarterly net profit jumped 2.7%. Deere sees industrywide sales of U.S. and Canadian farm machinery to jump about 5% for the fiscal year, compared with its earlier estimate between flat and up 5% from 2012.

 

Mike

------------

At 7:25am:

There are some real strange export sales announcements, this morning. Get this:

--Taiwan, Japan buy 200,000 tons of South African corn. South African? What?

--A S. Korean buyer purchases 70,000 tons of Australian wheat.

 

This lack of corn demand, in the U.S., is getting awfully interesting. What say you?

 

Mike

----------

At 6:30 am:

 

Early calls:  Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 2-4 cents lower, and wheat 5-7 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.68 per barrel lower
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening flat, ahead of a number of economic reports.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher and Europe's stocks are higher.

 

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Senior Reader
wcil
Posts: 1
Registered: ‎05-15-2013
0

Re: Floor Talk May 15

Maybe there is no corn to sell.  Basis in my area is at unheard of levels.

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,136
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk May 15

I second that .  +62 on corn  AND up to +$1.05 beans I'd say that is DEMAND

 

remember you asked.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk May 15

Hobbyfarmer,

 

I guess I'm talking about on the export stage. It seems the U.S. is getting looked over by many countries. Maybe the U.S. price is too expensive, nothing different than in the past. But, the difference nowadays is that many other countries are in the corn business. And that is becoming an interesting phenomenon. Because here is one scenario that could play out. If we produce a record-large crop, we could end up with a pile that would be very hard to chew through, without the help of export business. Agree?

 

Mike

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,136
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk May 15

[ Edited ]

Not necessarily. We have "high" prices because of large regional shortages caused by crop failures and years of creating demand, ie ethanol and cato's.

 

Put us back with an adequate or excess supply and we will be at a negative basis instead of a + basis and ...Wa Laa it will get export business.

 

WE are NOT TOO high. There are willing buyers out there or the price/basis would not be where we are today.

 

Take that +62 cents off of the price and how would that compare to world markets that have excess supplies?

 

The South Africa area has been a major competitor for decades in the corn market.

 

Just a few months ago Brazil had a 2 to 3 dollar + basis on beans before harvest.

 

Hard to export what you don't have excess of.

 

Right now the domestic market is doing all it can to keep existing dwindling supplies here.

 

We have talked about "value added" for decades now we have it, courtesy  of years of expansion in livestock confinements, and industrial uses.  Then  mother nature taking a third of the crop before harvest last year.

 

We are not too high. If anything we may have been too low because of the most corrupt administration in history and all the BS reports out of the USDA. Did you know the drought isn't over yet in a big area of the USA?

 

Rant off, heading out to refill the corn planter and try real hard to finish the corn planting here in my little slice of heaven here in South Podunk Country.  (Iowa for those who didn't see the movie)

 

Remember you asked...

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,136
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk May 15

Get done here will move out to Ks and get those acres planted for the insurance...of course it "might rain".

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,605
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk May 15

Hobby,   You are right on the money with your post.    

 

We are not exporting in because we DON"T HAVE IT!   Plain and simple.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Senior Contributor
teaspoon73
Posts: 210
Registered: ‎05-17-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk May 15

  There are only a few places in the US with corn and the commercials have gotten special rail rates to get it to central Illinios. So a lot of commercial interest chasing a little bit of corn. The big 5 control the export market, they aren't going to sell their corn supply out.

Veteran Contributor
fringeacres
Posts: 127
Registered: ‎07-22-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk May 15

We are importing corn and beans.     Analyst- ( price must go lower

We can't sell corn and beans.     Analyst ( price must go lower)

 

We may have a surplus this fall.    ( price must go lower)

 

We won't have any early corn in august.  ( oh @#$%)

 

I may not always be right in marketing

But when I am, you will know it ( August)

 Stay hung y my animal friends

Veteran Contributor
fringeacres
Posts: 127
Registered: ‎07-22-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk May 15

I read my own post and figured out the solution

Take all the grain we can't export and sell it to the people in u.s. that are importing.

Now where did we leave that 2 billion in corn. 

Oh yeah us stupid farmers own it.

 

Sarcasm font