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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,179
Registered: ‎05-03-2010

Floor Talk May 16

[ Edited ]

Reminder: Tomorrow (Friday), a jolt of volatility could occur when a widely watched analyst projects acreage during market hours, one analyst says.  As the days progress, have many farmers’ plans changed?

 

What say you?

 

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At the close:

The July futures corn contract closed 9 cents lower at $6.41. New-crop Dec. futures finished 7 cents lower at $5.24. The July soybean futures contract finished 14 cents higher at $14.27, new-crop Nov. soybeans ended 7 cents higher at $12.17. July wheat futures closed 6 cents lower at $6.87 per bushel. The July soymeal futures closed $4.40 per short ton higher at $414.90. The July soyoil futures settled $0.17 higher at $49.52.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.83 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 7 points lower.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The July futures corn contract is trading 7 cents lower at $6.43. New-crop Dec. futures are trading 5 cents lower at $5.26. The July soybean futures contract is trading 14 cents higher at $14.26, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 9 cents higher at $12.18. July wheat futures are trading 9 cents lower at $6.84 per bushel. The July soymeal futures are trading $4.90 per short ton higher at $415.40. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.29 higher at $49.64.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.14 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 7 points higher.

 

One analyst lays it on the line, while describing the corn market. He says, "There seems to be a lot of farmers that are finishing planting corn and then selling cash corn. A lot of cash corn is moving. Another signal of this is that some Midwestern ethanol plants are backing off on their basis levels. Maybe, this is an indication that the plants are getting enough corn, for now.
I don't blame farmers that are wanting to sell. it's a tough job. But, who wants to be the last guy holding, in the fall, when corn could be $1.00 to $1.40 lower than it is today, he asks.
I'm looking for 64% of the U.S. corn planted, by Monday. For Dec. corn, $5.20 seems to be a good support price. But, watch out for that July corn premium. It could crash & burn, as more cash corn shows up. Maybe the USDA's late March report showing more stocks on-hand, is not that far off?"

 

Mike

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At 10:15am:

 

Soybeans are trading up 11 cents, while corn and wheat trade lower.

 

Separately, one news item Thursday that could be related to the corn market involves the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) and Growth Energy. The two groups filed a complaint with the General Court in Luxembourg challenging the European Union’s (EU) decision to impose a 9.6 percent antidumping duty on all ethanol imported from the United States, according to the RFA news release.

 

 

Mike

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At the open:

 

The July futures corn contract opened 3 cents lower at $6.47. New-crop Dec. futures opened 1 cent lower at $5.30. The July soybean futures contract opened 4 cents higher at $14.16, new-crop Nov. soybeans opened 5 cents higher at $12.15. July wheat futures opened 2 cents higher at $6.95 per bushel. The July soymeal futures opened $0.50 per short ton higher at $411.00. The July soyoil futures opened $0.21 higher at $49.56.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.48 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 12 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 6:40 am:

 

Early calls:  Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 3-5 cents higher, and wheat 3-5 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.59per barrel lower
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher, ahead of a boatload of economic reports such as housing starts, consumer prices, jobless claims and a few speeches by the Fed Reserve guys.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks were mixed and Europe's stocks are mixed.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,179
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk May 16

USDA's Weekly Export Sales Thursday:

 

Corn= 257,000 mt vs. the trade's expectations of between 200,000-550,000 mt

Soybeans= 361,000 mt vs. the trade's expectations of  200,000-600,000 mt
Wheat=540,600 mt vs. the trade's expectations of between 200,000-500,000 mt

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
luisvieira
Posts: 239
Registered: ‎04-24-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk May 16

Mike,

 

A story from Reuters says that China will import a record of 66 million tons of soybeans this year. Their source is the China National Grain and Oil Information Center. This contradicts the USDA previous number on the issue, which was 69 million tons. The amount is 230,000 tons smaller than in the last season.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,179
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk May 16

Luis,

 

I wonder if this is one of China's favorite 'headfakes'? They are masters at this approach, in an attempt to move the market in their favor.

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
luisvieira
Posts: 239
Registered: ‎04-24-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk May 16

I don't know. It can be.

Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,224
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk May 16

My understanding is that demand for soy in China is strong and the bird flu issue is pretty much a nonfactor.