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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,891
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk May 17

[ Edited ]

At the close:

 

The July futures corn contract closed 11 cents higher at $6.52. New-crop Dec. futures settled 4 cents lower at $5.19. The July soybean futures contract finished 21 cents higher at $14.48, new-crop Nov. soybeans 11 cents higher at $12.28. July wheat futures 5 cents lower at $6.83 per bushel. The July soymeal futures settled $10.20 per short ton higher at $425.20. The July soyoil futures finished unchanged at $49.52.

 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.85 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 88 points higher.

 

Mike

------------

At mid-session:

At mid-session, the July futures corn contract is trading 13 cents higher at $6.54. New-crop Dec. futures are 1 cent lower at $5.22. The July soybean futures contract is trading 16 cents higher at $14.43, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 6 cents higher at $12.24. July wheat futures are trading 5 cents lower at $6.83 per bushel. The July soymeal futures are trading $6.30 per short ton higher at $421.20. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.15 higher at $49.67.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.30 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 61 points higher.

 

One analyst says the rally is based upon a supply squeeze.  "Farmers are planting and not selling and the market got caught short.  Bears being forced out and bulls happy!  Beans the same thing.  Wheat will have a harvest and has developed a new downtrend, with its price action this week.  The July corn rally does not surprise me. I was having a tough time wondering why it went lower in the first place, after May went off the board.  Some talk that July corn and soybeans need to try to run to the May settlements. And it is possible, given the tight supplies."

 

 

Mike

-------

At 10:45am:

Old-crop corn jumps higher Friday! Is it because of Informa's updated U.S. acreage estimates? Corn acres have been lowered.

 

Informa Says:

 

Corn=  96.82 million, compared to the USDA's 97.3 million.

Soybeans=  78.286 million, up 1.2 million from the USDA's March estimate

Spring Wheat=  12.4 million

 

What do you think?

 

Mike

--------

At 8:50am:

 

--USDA announces Friday that an unknown bought 138,000 tons of U.S. soybeans.

--USDA announces Friday that China bought 120,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for 2013-14 delivery.

 

Mike

--------

At the open:

At the open, the July futures corn contract opened 3 cents lower at $6.47. New-crop Dec. futures opened 1 cent lower at $5.30. The July soybean futures contract opened 4 cents higher at $14.16, new-crop Nov. soybeans opened 5 cents higher at $12.15. July wheat futures opened 2 cents higher at $6.95 per bushel. The July soymeal futures opened $0.50 per short ton higher at $411.00. The July soyoil futures opened $0.21 higher at $49.56.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.48 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 12 points lower.
Informa will release updated acreage figures at midday, with corn likely to be lowered, while bean area is increased, one analyst says.

 

Mike

----------

At 7:15am:

Boy, the planting percentages for next Monday's Crop Progress Report get higher everytime I talk to someone. Early yesterday, I was hearing the U.S. could have 64% of the corn planted, as of this Sunday. Yet another analyst is now seeing 70%-80% of the corn planted by Sunday. Apparently, central Illinois farmers are really planting in a rapid pace this week, with a wide weather-window to do so. I'm told to keep in mind that a lot of farmers, in the past few years, have upgraded their planters from 8-row to 16-row and some in even jumped to 24-row. This can make a huge difference in planting pace.

 

What does this mean for the markets? New crop and old-crop will remain under pressure. The surprising part of this is that after farmers are finishing planting they are turning right around and selling into the strong cash basis. For soybeans, the tight supply concerns could carry this market for sometime.

 

Mike

--------

At 7:10 am:

 

Early calls:  Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 5-9 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.43per barrel higher
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher, ahead of a boatload of economic reports.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks were mostly higher and Europe's stocks are mostly higher.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,183
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 17

60% will be a stretch...............80% LMAO, ok

Senior Contributor
IllinoisSteve
Posts: 163
Registered: ‎04-13-2013
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Re: Floor Talk May 17

Mile, I think the planting progress on Monday depends a great deal in how soon the rains move in. If guys can get today and part of tomorrow I could see it coming in over 70%. Finished here Wednesday with many finishing yesterday and today.
Veteran Contributor
farsider
Posts: 144
Registered: ‎06-28-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 17

Here is a story from 2010 about expecting a record pace in good conditions vs actual planted that week. This was under good conditions vs this years well let's just say less then ideal. If the stories don't open expected pace was 50% vs actual of 31%, record pace ever was 34% in 1999.
http://www.ibj.com/corn-farmers-planting-at-record-pace/PARAMS/article/19561
vs
http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/nass/CropProg//2010s/2010/CropProg-04-26-2010.pdf
Frequent Contributor
tOTALED
Posts: 41
Registered: ‎07-11-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 17

A great deal of corn planted in less than ideal conditions, it will need timely rains this year more than ever. getting a little tired of expert analyst propaganda supporting their positions. we have a +66 basis in e. central Iowa. just sayin.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,891
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 17

[ Edited ]

tOTALED,

 

I don't know. This photo (courtesy of Gil Gullickson) of an Illinois farmer, planting yesterday, appears to show good conditions.

 

Illinois corn.jpg

Frequent Contributor
colorofmoney
Posts: 55
Registered: ‎04-30-2012
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Re: Floor Talk May 17

[ Edited ]

Mike, you have to get off the tractor and dig a little behind the planter to see what's really happening.  It has been good here this later week but any corn before that it was a little sticky underneath.  Pictures don't always tell the hole story.  3/4 of an inch last night and more to come sunday.  Planterslikely parked here over the weekend, and will be rolling past Memorial day around here.

Extreme SWMN
Senior Contributor
Longcreekfarms
Posts: 408
Registered: ‎08-07-2012
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Re: Floor Talk May 17

Bigger planters = faster replanting when the 1st round was sliced into mud. Here in the east, I finished corn on 4-25. Received a frost on 5-14 but looks like everything is taking off again. Even the few beans that were up are going to make it. Hard to tell what it did to wheat that is headed out and filling though.
Senior Contributor
Blacksandfarmer
Posts: 816
Registered: ‎08-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 17

Mike, here's a picture I just took of some corn I planted May 2nd. Fieldwork is winding down here for both corn and soybeans. We've had a nice 3 week window to plant in, and we took advantage of it. The ground still has some decent moisture in it, but we could use some rain to get foundation herbicides working better and get soybeans off to a good start.

DSC04422.JPG

Senior Contributor
IllinoisSteve
Posts: 163
Registered: ‎04-13-2013
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Re: Floor Talk May 17

You might be right but I'm thinking it will be closer to 70 than 60. You're not the only one who has been working 17 hour days.