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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,250
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk May 18

[ Edited ]

I pieced together a story on the "too dry" scenario. Read full story on "Too dry".

 

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Notice: CFTC approves CME Group's extended electronic trading hours Friday.The new hours start Sunday night.

 

What do you think about the decision? Do you think this puts you in better position or do you think this puts you at a disadvantage?

 

Here are the details, according to the CME Group press release.

 

Hours will expand from the current 17 hours per day to 21 hours per day on CME Globex from 5:00 p.m. to 2:00 p.m. CT Sunday to Friday.
Products included in the expanded hours are CBOT Corn, Mini-Sized Corn, Soybeans, Mini-Sized Soybeans, Wheat, Mini-Sized Wheat, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Rough Rice, Oats, and Ethanol futures and options plus all related calendar spread options and inter-commodity spread options.
Daily settlements will continue to be based on market activity at or around 1:15 p.m. CT each day. Additionally, open-outcry trading hours will continue to operate from 9:30 a.m. to 1:15 p.m. CT Monday to Friday.

 

Mike

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At the close:

The July corn futures settled 10 1/2 cents higher at $6.35 1/2, while the Dec. contract finished 8 3/4 cents higher at $5.37. The July soybean contract ended 33 cents lower $14.05, while the Nov. 2012 contract closed 18 cents lower at $12.88. The July wheat futures settled 37 1/2 cents higher at $6.95 1/4. July soyoil futures settled down $0.40 at $50.32. The July soymeal futures finished $10.10 lower at $417.90. 
In the outside markets, the N
YMEX crude oil is $1.07 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 59 points.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The July corn futures trade 5 3/4 cents higher at $6.30 3/4, while the Dec. contract trades 9 1/4 cents higher at $5.37 1/2. The July soybean contract is trading 16 1/2 cents lower $14.21 1/2, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 4 1/2 cents lower at $13.02. The July wheat futures are trading 25 3/4 cents higher at $6.83 1/2. July soyoil futures trade down $0.22 at $50.50. The July soymeal futures are trading $3.60 lower at $424.40. 
In the outside markets, the N
YMEX crude oil is $0.50 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 24 points.

 

One analyst says, "Near-term, look for grains to build their seasonal weather premium in the market. It usually occurs between mid-May and early July. If weather rallies occurred late July and early August, then it's a real weather problem of too hot and dry. The May-to-early July premium is a fear pricing of what weather uncertainties lie ahead, as we move through early emergence into mid-crop growth development."

 

Mike

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At the open:

The July corn futures trade 7 cents higher at $6.32, while the Dec. contract trades 6 cents higher at $5.34. The July soybean contract is trading 9 cents lower $14.28 1/2, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 5 cents lower at $13.01 1/4. The July wheat futures are trading 10 3/4 cents higher at $6.68. July soyoil futures trade down $0.22 at $50.50. 
In the outside markets, the N
YMEX crude oil is $0.51 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 15 points.

 

Mike

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At 6:50am:

Early calls: Corn 2-3 cents higher, soybeans 4-6 cents lower, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.12 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen higher ahead of Facebook's IPO.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific lower, Europe stocks are mixed.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Frequent Contributor
rusureofit
Posts: 64
Registered: ‎05-15-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk May 18

If this is right the USDA may have to retool their crop size lower sooner than expected:

 

http://twitpic.com/9mcaku

Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 792
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk May 18

If it stays dry think the double crop soybeans after wheat be there?   I've never done that but I assume you have to have some moisture there or in the forecast to try that . 

Advisor
jrsiajdranch
Posts: 2,125
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk May 18

Yea we are dry however remeber last year?  We had better soil moisture reserves going into the season but first cutting hay was easy to put up cause the humidity was low and no rain lots of wind and sun. In fact we had a hard time getting it to ferment well into the silos as it was to dry. Second cutting and third were a nightmare as we had lots of humidity and even rain in that period. By the time Sept. come around there was no rain. SO we may very well get the rain we need in the middle part of the season yet. If we do turn off real dry I garauntee it will be the end of Ethol as we know it. Gotta go chop while the wind is down.

Veteran Contributor
aaron-neill
Posts: 68
Registered: ‎05-17-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk May 18

Elwynn just tweeted:

 

The 3-month forecast is not definitive, but gives little support to the notion of a US corn yield exceeding 162BPA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/

@cfarms76
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,250
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 18

[ Edited ]

aaron-neill,

 

On top of all that is mentioned in the story that I linked to, there is a new development this morning. The European weather models are showing an early season 'heat dome' for the Midwest, in the 6-10 day outlook.

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
Blacksandfarmer
Posts: 902
Registered: ‎08-04-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk May 18

Mike it is certainly dry in my area. Soil moisture below the first inch and a half isn't to bad yet but the ground is starting to turn into concrete. Soybeans planted 10 days ago are having a hard time busting through crusted ground. I went equipment shopping in Northwest Ohio yesterday and seen a farmer rotory hoeing. A light shower would certainly be nice. As far as planting is concerned I would say we are 80-90% complete with planting in this area both corn and beans..... Much better than last years nightmare planting season.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,250
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk May 18

Blacksandfarmer,

 

How tall is your corn? Also, I've heard that farmers in the western Corn Belt have yet to market very much new-crop corn and they are sitting on more old-crop than previous thought. What about in the ECB? What do the corn piles look like there?

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
Farmerjoe79
Posts: 432
Registered: ‎04-02-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk May 18

Mike how could anyone be selling new crop corn at the prices they are now. I would say it is more of a gamble to be selling something that is not even in your bin yet. Do you here many people selling new crop at these prices?
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,213
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk May 18

Come on Joe ... drink the Kool-Aid

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."