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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk May 2

[ Edited ]

Old-Timers Wanted

I started a thread in Ag Forum, asking what the "old-timers" are thinking. Don't really want to carry out the conversation here. But, I wanted to draw your attention towards

this "old-timers" discussion.

 

-----------------

At the close:

The July corn futures settled 17 1/2 cents lower at $6.11 1/2. The July soybean contract closed 18 1/2 cents lower $14.85. The July wheat futures end 28 1/2 cents lower at $6.14 1/2. The July soymeal futures settled $4.50 per short ton lower at $429.70 and July soyoil futures close $0.20 at $54.71. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.93 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 23 points.

 

Mike

------

At 12:20pm:

As the markets drift downward, at least one analyst firm sees fit to release estimates for next week's WASDE Report.

 

PFGBEST.com estimates:

U.S. Ending stocks
                 
            2012               
Corn     =710                    
Soybeans =205                         
Wheat    =793                         


U.S. Ending stocks
                 
            2013                             
Corn    =1.380                              
Wheat  =890                                 
Beans= 175

World Reserves
            
               2012       2013      
Corn   =121.50       125.00    
Soybeans =54.50    52.00                    
Wheat   =204.00    198.00                    


             2012  Production   
Corn  =14.400 billion bushels                 
Soybeans  =3.195 billion bushels

 

Sooo, what do you think? Are these estimates pretty much what you had in mind?

 

Mike

--------

At 11:25am:

Though July soybeans have had a session high of $15.12 1/2 per bushel, the contract has moved into negative territory, again. Quite the volatile market today.

 

Mike

-------

At mid-session:

The July corn futures trade 11 cents lower at $6.18, and Dec. corn is off 3 cents. The July soybean contract is trading 2 1/2 cents higher $15.06. The July wheat futures are trading 16 cents lower at $6.27. The July soymeal futures are trading $1.20 per short ton higher at $435.40 and July soyoil futures trade up $0.39 at $55.30. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.97 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 50 points.

 

Mike

------

At 10:45am:

Soybeans have turned around. Higher bean prices, as we head towards mid-session.

 

 

Mike

--------

At 10am:

Farm markets are fully entrenched into lower trading. Perhaps the demand news will be traded later in the session?

 

Mike

-------

At the open:

The July corn futures trade 1 1/2 cents lower at $6.27 1/2. The July soybean contract is trading 5 3/4 cents lower $14.98. The July wheat futures are trading 6 3/4 cents lower at $6.36 1/4. The July soymeal futures opened $2.50 per short ton lower at $431.70 and July soyoil futures trade up $0.29 at $55.20. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.48 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 76 points.

 

Traders see a dipping market, but they don't expect it to fall out of bed, by no means.

 

Mike

--------------

At 8:30am:

I know the Early Calls were seen as lower. Well, that may be where the market starts, but these fresh exports announced this morning should help the markets move up, fast. We'll see.

 

 

Mike

----------

At 8:20am:

--China's Customs department says it will allow imports of Argentine corn.

--Oil World lowered world soybean production yesterday to 238.1 million mt, down 2.3 mmt from last month’s estimate. That is also 2.0 mmt under the latest USDA estimate, and 27.7 mmt below last year's crop. Brazil’s soybean crop was dropped to 65 mmt, a million below the USDA, with Argentine's output at 42.5 mmt, 2.5 mmt below the USDA April estimate.

 

Mike

-------

At 8am:

Not nibbling:

--USDA announces that 204,000 mt of U.S. soybeans were sold to an 'unknown' for 2012-13.

--USDA announces 130,000 mt of U.S. corn sold to 'unknown' buyer for 2012-13 delivery.

--USDA announces Wed. that 30,000 mt of soyoil was sold to China for 2011-12 delivery.

--S. Korea buyer purchases 123,000 mt of corn Wednesday.

 

Demand, Demand, Demand!!!

 

Mike

-----------

At 7am:

Nibbles:

--S. Korea buys 58,000 mt of U.S. corn Wednesday for Oct. delivery.

--Taiwan buys 56,500 mt of U.S. wheat Wednesday for June delivery.

--Leban tenders for 50,000 mt of milling wheat of Black Sea origin.

 

Mike

--------

At 6:45 am:

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 4-6 cents lower, and wheat 4-6 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.55 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading lower ahead of private sector jobs report Tuesday.

World Markets=Higher.

 

The national radar shows plenty of rain in the Upper Midwest, especially in Iowa. A lot of farmers are being delayed in planting this weeek.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
4wd
Posts: 544
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk May 2

What??!!

Taiwan wants US wheat for June delivery??? LESs than 30 days.

Is that physically possible? Running kind of hand to mouth aren't they??

Or was that June '13 delivery?

 

Thanks Marketeye

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk May 2

4wd,

 

No, not 2013. The Dow Jones Newswire story says this June. It might be sourcing the wheat from somewhere closer.

 

Mike

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,103
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk May 2

If it is the Pacific NW, it is quite do able. You are looking at almost 60 days. Could even make it from the gulf coast it does need to be at the port in an elevator though.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Senior Contributor
bkadds
Posts: 319
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk May 2

Just got a sell signal from Roach so he must think corn is headed lower.  Thoughts?

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,149
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk May 2

Bkadds,

 

Does ROach have a crystal ball?  What is their main factor to sell?   I am buying Soybeans at the dips and waiting for further developments on the South America problem and when the charts tell me that it is going down.  Corn is different I know.

 

 

Senior Contributor
Buckley_HF
Posts: 165
Registered: ‎12-29-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk May 2

I believe he's pure technical and CN dipped below 6.205 which was some sort of technical support. May be reason for signal may not. I know diddly about technicals but I believe it's back above it
Senior Contributor
Slim123
Posts: 203
Registered: ‎01-20-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk May 2

I used to subscribe to Roach's daily e-mails. Last year if you listened to what he said to do, you wouldn't had any crop left to sell when the price went  up.

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,103
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk May 2

he usually has more sell signals than farmers have crops.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Senior Contributor
Buckley_HF
Posts: 165
Registered: ‎12-29-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk May 2

Better watch out boys. July corn is getting low enough to that Chinese "sweet spot". Maybe more sales forthcoming :smileyhappy: