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05-20-2013 06:47 AM - edited 05-20-2013 04:06 PM
U.S. corn is 71% planted vs. 95% a year ago and a 79% 5-yr average.
Soybeans= 24% planted vs. 71% a year ago and a 42% 5-yr average.
Well, what do you think?
On corn, Illinois planted 67% in one week. Wow!! Iowa planted 61% in one week, but rrmain behind a 92% avg. for this date. Minnesota is 70% planted, 14% points below average. Nebraska is 8% points behind avg. North and South Dakota states are planting about average pace.
--A floor trader says:
"The market will be lower but not by much, as a result of this Crop Progress Report. Trade expected 68%, so it's not a shock. Minnesota was bigger than expected which surprised me.
Winter wheat P/VP category up 2% shows HRW is getting worse. NE 59% p/vp doesn't bode well for their winter wheat or their massive corn crop.
Just remember, just because we plant it doesn't mean it will yield well. East of the Mississippi will be fine, west remains a major question mark," he says.
--Al Kluis, Kluis Publishing, says the fact that the U.S. Farmers planted 43% of the nation’s corn crop in one week is negative to the market.
“This report is negative for prices. Look for corn to start out 1 to 2 cents lower tonight. The soybean number will not impact prices.”
--Meanwhile, Ken Smithmier, The Hightower Report agrees that this Crop Progress Report is negative for prices.
“The market reaction to this report should be negative for price direction. The progress of the last week has been historic and to see states like IL and IN now within reach of their 5 year average and other key states exceeding the 5 year average, a significant amount of risk premium will be withdrawn from the market. Would expect a test of $5 where moderate support may be found but the supportive factors in the new crop corn market are deteriorating quickly. The market will focus on June/July weather from here on out..
---And then there is this floor trader reaction:
"The corn planting progress was a new one week record..half of IL and IA were planted in one week… 40 million acres..
Planting progress concerns are over… makes USDA look silly taking new crop yield down 5.5 bushels below trend… expect corn to test last Junes lows at 511 to 499….Mike that is the coud d’ gras for the guys who paid up on corn during limit move two weeks ago… however.. a lot of summer left to go… warm temps out west … declining HRW conditions… if current forecast verifies… IND, OH, and MI will be looking for rain at the end of the two week outlook…. Recent SOI southern Oscillation Index has some weather guys looking for a return of la nina condition and hotter weather for the mid-west… so don’t get to enamered with planting progress… its over…time to look at other things…
I would say that in general I am and have been bearish… barring a weather problem… large SA crops…and large growth in 2nd crop corn in Brazil..and wheat in FSU, large carry in stocks in US wheat and India… flat Chinese demand… and most important a flat ethanol demand… market has made its adjustments to ethanol and that part of the tremendous growth story ..is over…
Last IM I have tonight…is Illinoin and Ohio farmers hold back on bean planting waiting for some rain…J..the worm can turn quickly…so not selling a $4.99 tic…first time down,” he says.
At the close:
The July futures corn contract closed 3 cents lower at $6.49. New-crop Dec. futures finished 1 cent higher at $5.20. The July soybean futures contract closed 16 cents higher at $14.64, new-crop Nov. soybeans finished 3 cents lower at $12.25. July wheat futures finished 2 cents higher at $6.85per bushel. The July soymeal futures settled $10.20 per short ton higher at $435.30. The July soyoil futures closed $0.32 lower at $49.20.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.83 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 7 points lower.
One analyst says, "Old crop/new crop spreads: This can continue into the July delivery period. Traders will watch the amount (cents per bushel) that cash is over the delivery equivalent. As long as cash trades at a higher level than delivery, traders will feel comfortable holding futures contracts. We will see waves of cash selling that should pressure the spreads occasionally, but right now that’s all I see.
Also, switching beans to corn-- truly doubt it. If you are done planting, be thankful. We know way too many farmers in our immediate area that are not done with corn. Last week, our area had only about 3 or 3.5 days of fieldwork."
The July futures corn contract is trading 7 cents lower at $6.46. New-crop Dec. futures are tradin 3 cents lower at $5.16. The July soybean futures contract is trading 3 cents higher at $14.51, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 13 cents lower at $12.15. July wheat futures are trading 6 cents lower at $6.76per bushel. The July soymeal futures are trading $3.30 per short ton higher at $428.40. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.21 lower at $49.31.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.69 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 35 points lower.
One analyst says, "Traders are determined to push the July/Nov bean spread to 2.47 July over the Nov. which is the historic high. At that point, we could see some month end profit taking by funds before they push that bull spread even higher into June. June will keep old crop July firm on tight ending stocks and little to no farmer sales while Nov weakens on planting progress and talk of less corn acres and more bean acres to be planted. Upper Plains states continue overly wet, suggesting time to plant corn will run out in 10 days. This leaves them switching to beans which can be planted on time up to June 10. Minnesota was to plant 9 million acres this year, a state record, yet they look to get another 3 to 4 inches of rain the next four days, keeping planters idle until next week. They were only 18 % planted last Monday versus the national average of 28%. This all looks to keep a floor under July bean futures today, but strength into the week."
--USDA announces Monday that an 'unknown' bought 120,000 mt of U.S. corn for 2013-14 delivery.
At the open:
The July futures corn contract opened 3 cents higher at $6.55. New-crop Dec. futures opened 2 cents lower at $5.17. The July soybean futures contract opened 1 cent lower at $14.47, new-crop Nov. soybeans opened 9 cents lower at $12.18. July wheat futures opened 2 cents lower at $6.81 per bushel. The July soymeal futures opened $0.70 per short ton higher at $425.80. The July soyoil futures opened $0.08 lower at $49.44.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.39 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 20 points lower.
At 6:45 am:
Early calls: Corn is seen 2-4 cents higher (old-crop), soybeans 2-4 cents higher (old-crop), and wheat 1-2 cents lower. Meanwhile, new-crop corn and soybeans are seen down 4-6 cents.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.48 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening flat, ahead of a Fed President's speech at 1pm today. Plus, investors are believed to be taking it easy after last week's banner week.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks were mostly higher and Europe's stocks are mostly higher.
More in a minute,
05-20-2013 09:41 AM - edited 05-20-2013 09:42 AM
A slight uptick in U.S. 2013 ethanol production, despite one less plant operating.
U.S. fuel ethanol production capacity was 13.9 billion gallons per year (903,000 barrels per day), as of January 1, 2013, according to a report released by EIA on May 20, 2013. The report shows a very slight increase in the total capacity of operating ethanol plants compared to January 1, 2012. Most of the existing fuel ethanol capacity is located in the Midwest (PAD District 2), according to the EIA press release.
05-20-2013 11:04 AM
Planting progress report is release at 3 this afternoon correct? anyway think we will see a 50% increase over last week? Thats roughly 48.5 million acres planted in 7 days?? Is that possible?
05-20-2013 11:31 AM
Actually, I don't think 70% shocks the market. I think many believe it will be at least 65-70%. I'm putting my money on closer to 80%. So many guys that I'm hearing that have finished with corn, mainly in the ECB, are already planting soybeans. From Missouri to Indiana, and many other Midwestern states, the earth got inundated with corn seeds from May 12-19. That Sunday to Sunday timeframe saw massive corn planting. Brace for a huge planting percentage, this afternoon.
05-20-2013 11:34 AM
Bracing in Kansas to get it from all angles.
05-20-2013 12:14 PM
Thanks Mike. "Shock" was the word used in the article I read, not my own belief or projection. I have no idea what it would take to shock the market. Perhaps the article I read was engaging in hyperbole.