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05-21-2012 06:23 AM - edited 05-21-2012 03:05 PM
USDA says 96% of corn is planted and 76% of the soybean crop is in the ground.
A weather bulletin caught my attention, a few minutes ago. The updated weather models show the 'heat dome' spreading to more states until May 28 or 29. The dome doesn't completely breakdown. It fires right back up, across the Midwest states between June 3-6. Oh boy!
At the close:
The July corn futures settled 2 1/2 cents lower at $6.33, while the Dec. contract finished 3 1/2 cents higher at $5.40 1/2. The July soybean contract settled 7 1/2 cents higher $14.12 1/2, while the Nov. 2012 contract ended 18 1/4 cents higher at $13.06 1/4. The July wheat futures closed 8 3/4 cents higher at $7.04, an 8-month high. July soyoil futures finished up $0.60 at $50.92. The July soymeal futures finished $1.40 per short ton lower at $416.50.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.95 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 110 points.
Tom White, a CME Group corn pit trader and FutureRoad.net analyst, says that technically corn could drop Tuesday.
The market had a minor reversal pattern Monday and traded into a gap area which was not filled. Thus, there is a minor bias to at least try to trade lower again Tuesday. But, if we hold the cut-through trend-line area or above (i.e. continue to close above it on a daily basis), we will be working on a bullish trend-line break in the coming days..
20 hours and still trading, this market is weakening. Corn and soybeans remain mostly higher. Wheat is still lower.
The July corn futures trade 1 1/4 cents lower at $6.34 1/4, while the Dec. contract trades 5 1/2 cents higher at $5.42 1/2. The July soybean contract is trading 9 1/2 cents higher $14.14 1/4, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 23 1/4 cents higher at $13.11 1/4. The July wheat futures are trading 11 1/4 cents higher at $7.06 1/2. July soyoil futures trade up $0.66 at $50.98. The July soymeal futures trade $0.90 per short ton lower at $417.00.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.57 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 83 points.
One analyst says today's higher markets are pricing in weather concerns.
"Markets priced in the lack of rain over the weekend and the coming of the big heat dome.
Today, marks the first session for the extended electronic trading hours. Grain analysts are assessing how their daily work will chug.
"Under the old schedule, everything was set up to trade a certain way which allowed us time to regroup and contact customers on what to do next. With out downtime, it becomes a professionals market, one that can sit in front of the screen. But, those who are distant will be at a huge disadvantage. We will have to adjust but it's clearly not customer-friendly," he says.
Old-crop corn has turned lower, deferred contracts remain higher. Soybean prices are rallying. But, this market has been trading for 17 1/2 hours now. Will it have the "energy" to keep the momentum until 2pm? I wonder if the flurry of pit trading that used to occur between 1:14 and 1:15pm will now happen, at 1:59-2:00pm on the electronic close? There are a lot of new market dynamics that could develop, with these new hours.
At the open:
The July corn futures trade 2 1/4 cents higher at $6.37, while the Dec. contract trades 6 3/4 cents higher at $5.43 3/4. The July soybean contract is trading 8 1/2 cents lower $14.13, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 16 cents higher at $13.04 1/4. The July wheat futures are trading 4 1/4 cents higher at $6.99 1/4. July soyoil futures trade up $0.47 at $50.80. The July soymeal futures opened $0.60 per short ton lower at $417.40.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.21 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 57 points.
Tom White, a CME Group corn pit trader and FutureRoad.net analyst says that several technical bullish targets were hit last week, leaving us with several potential patterns as we move into this week.
"On the “longer-term” continuation chart (weekly), we see where the market created a double bottom at the $5.72 1/4 area. The point in between the double bottom is $6.75 3/4. Closing above there this week would be bullish – i.e. look for the highest point in between the double bottom and determine if conditions warrant continuation, if we get above that area.
The shorter-term charts appear to still be in an impulsive third wave (Elliot Wave Theory) to the upside. This can end at any time. But after it ends, we would probably go into several days of choppy back-and-forth trade, as we create a fourth wave triangle. Also, the charts show the possibility of big positive reversals (i.e. RSI turns from lower values at higher prices). If we don’t break in the early part of the week, we will be able to project targets for that pattern to the upside...... stay tuned
Bearish possibilities for the week include a move back to fill a gap to $6.24-26 1/2; and if decent selling comes in, back to the weekly $6.16 3/4 area."
--USDA announces Monday that Iraq buys 100,000 mt of U.S. HRW wheat for 2012-13 delivery.
--China soybean imports, for April, were 4.88 mmt, up 26% on-year.
--China corn imports, for April, were 16,421 mt vs. 7,215 last PEIL.
--China Jan.-April corn imports were 1.76 mmt, up 134 times a year ago.
--China wheat imports , for April, were 293,376 mt vs. 10,254 last April.
Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 4-6 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.31 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen higher with fresh economic news, and the G-8 countries, in a weekend meeting, stressing that Greece should remain in the euro zone.
More in a minute,
05-21-2012 06:56 AM
Mike, A post below has got me wondering....Some of the early planted corn bushels were added to the stocks number for the ending carryout, since the corn was going to be harvested in August and September. Now that some of this early planted corn needed to be replanted, it seems to me that the folks that count bushels for our carryout numbers, will have to lower the 2011 ending stocks number. They can still count them in 2012's carryout out though. I have a feeling those folks were counting them in both 2011's numbers and 2012's numbers anyways.
If you wouldn't mind, could you find someone who would touch on that subject and report it here? Thank you!
05-21-2012 07:04 AM
05-21-2012 07:09 AM
Finished everything for the first time, and finished replant this weekend.....had close to 7 inches of rain 2 weeks ago that was a game changer, got most everything cleaned up good enough for fall.......
Left some marginal corn hoping it pulls out of it.......hated to tear up or drive thru the good stuff to piece in holes, and if it doesn't rain it will not matter......
Its been a year of varibility already, fanstastic corn, crap corn and rolled corn all within 300 feet.......perfect stand of beans on one side of the road and complete replant on the other side, same ground, cover, seed, planter, just 12 hours apart.....
Our perfect start got knocked down a notch or two
05-21-2012 07:44 AM
In 2004 out first planted corn was shoulder high by the 10th of June, Now our first planted this year is going to have to pick it up a lot in order to get that big and we had it planted the 11th of april 2012 vs the april 17th 2004 corn.
05-21-2012 09:16 AM
Insurance adjuster is on the way to check my hail damaged crops. One beans field planted april 27th is totally gone, another has about half a stand. My corn got dinged pretty bad but I don't think it will need replanting. Others have corn fields that you can't even see a stump of a stalk left. Will it come up from below ground? The corn was 6-8 inches high. The hail came with 70 mph winds. Hailed at about 8:00 pm and one neighbor still had one inch hail stones in the yard the next morning. I am cutting up down trees today too. What a way to start a year!
05-21-2012 10:05 AM
I'm a french grain saler, working in a cooperative.
I'd like to light some major point...
here is what you can read in France for a week or so in the newspaper: "Usa is going to have the highest corn harvest on history" "seeding is going well, 95% done in well conditions" "soybeans seeding is musch earlier than last year" "USA is getting ready for a huge soybeans and corn harvest"
And here is what you read this morning: "severe drought is coming up in the corn belt" and "dry conditions may delay soybeans seeding"
I've read your messages and i'm lost! Is it really dry, or is just an annoucement? have you enough moisture in the ground?
Are the financials vey involved in this rising prices?
PS: if you want some informations about France, i'm willing to tell you what i know.
05-21-2012 10:20 AM
its called the ebb and flow of raising a crop............its never perfect.......
so heres the catch..........IMO the USDA has built in a perfect season to achieve their numbers.........
again its never perfect and in most cases can be quite far from it in all actuality........
So to your question.........is it dry, general answer is yes.........are we in a drought, general answer is no not yet........bad thing about a drought is by the time you realize or admit to yourself you are in one.........its too late.........
2 more weeks of this pattern and its going to be rough, 8 more weeks and things will be chaotic.............we already have 1 week on deck that appears to be dry and for some seasonally hot..............many more to go............
05-21-2012 10:57 AM
Can you post a photo of that hail-damaged bean and corn crop? The pictures are worth a .......well, you know the rest of the saying. It would be great to see what happened.