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05-22-2013 07:08 AM - edited 05-22-2013 01:59 PM
At the close:
The July futures corn contract finished trading 18 cents higher at $6.58. New-crop Dec. futures closed 10 cents higher at $5.30. The July soybean futures contract closed 16 cents higher at $14.94, new-crop Nov. soybeans settled 18 cents higher at $12.38. July wheat futures finished 8 cents higher at $6.88 per bushel. The July soymeal futures closed $1.90per short ton higher at $440.60. The July soyoil futures settled $0.16 higher at $49.64.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.62 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 56 points lower.
One analyst sizes up today's market this way: "The funds and algos trade where the liquidity is, in this case July. I believe this is a combination of both the friendly ethanol report and the new crop sales announcements this morning, even if those aren't supposed to affect old crop. I wouldn't get too excited about this rally though. Ethanol production is still not reaching what it needs to average per week to reach the demand estimate the USDA has written down. These guys seem to flop on a dime. Yesterday, it was bearspreading in corn and bullspreading in soybeans, today the opposite. If a producer isn't holding onto any old crop corn or soybeans I would just disregard these moves as noise and focus on getting their new crop marketed while prices are still at profitable levels. We are still long term bearish," he says.
Big Ben says it's not time to stop printing money, keeping the quantitative easing program propping up the U.S. economy. Is this the root of today's commodities rally? What say you?
The July futures corn contract is trading 15 cents higher at $6.55. New-crop Dec. futures trade 8 cents higher at $5.28. The July soybean futures contract is 2 cents lower at $14.76, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 10 cents higher at $12.31. July wheat futures are trading 11 cents higher at $6.91per bushel. The July soymeal futures are trading $2.70per short ton lower at $436.40. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.03 lower at $49.45.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.06 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 112 points higher.
One grain analyst says, "Were seeing unwinding of the long July short Nov. bean spread, after hitting major resistance at 14.85. The spread looks to move higher in the future, possibly to 3.00 July over Nov. But, there's a three day holiday coming and traders look to pull profits out. Corn shorts are banking short profits as well. Dec, corn is seeing some buying, as traders seasonally see the bearish planting trend turn to growing season buying, after the Memorial Day holiday."
The markets are hopping. Corn is up double-digits, soybeans are trading 3-4 cents higher ande wheat is on the rise too. Margins favor more U.S. ethanol productiion. On Wednesday, the EIA announced that through last Friday, the week's ethanol production jumped 2.1% or 875,000 barrels per day. Is this causing the corn rally?
In early trading:
The July futures corn contract opened unchangedat $6.40. New-crop Dec. futures opened 4 cents higher at $5.24. The July soybean futures contract opened 6 cents lower at $14.72, new-crop Nov. soybeans opened 6 cents higher at $12.27. July wheat futures opened 6 cents higher at $6.86 per bushel. The July soymeal futures opened $4.30per short ton lower at $434.40. The July soyoil futures opened unchanged at $49.48.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.17 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 29 points higher.
At 7:05 am:
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2cents higher (old-crop), soybeans 1-2 cents lower (old-crop), and wheat 4-6 cents higher. Meanwhile, new-crop corn and soybeans are seen 3-5 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.56 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher, ahead of testimony by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and housing data.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks were mostly higher and Europe's stocks are mostly mixed.
More in a minute,
05-22-2013 07:32 AM
Al Kluis, Kluis Publishing ran a short questionaire to farmer-customers asking what percentage of normal corn yield they expect to harvest, based on when they plant.
He wrote the results in today's note to customers: "In the northern Corn Belt: These farmers said they would lose 10 to 20% of their yield planting in the third week of May, and 20 to 30% in the fourth week. Most said they wouldn't even plant corn during the first week of June. They would file prevent plant or switch to soybeans.
In the southern Corn Belt: These farmers said they would not lose any yield potential until the fourth week of May. The corn would be a lot wetter at harvest, and they would likely have large dryer gas bills. They would not switch to soybeans until the third week of June."
05-22-2013 07:48 AM
That`s the thing Mike, they tout the "71% planted" and that`s all very fine but that last 29% is the wet stuff. Here`s the 6-10 day precip http://dtn.trupointe.com/popup/weather_popup.cfm?map=us_6_10_day_precip_640&key=fFom10JB9HCRMrW0x79F... Maybe out of the 29% 2/3rds will be mudded in the "27th of May" but 10% of the corn acres 8-9 million?? might go to beans or PP. If the 6 to 10 day wasn`t above normal precip I`d think differently ...anyway just my 2¢
05-22-2013 08:12 AM - edited 05-22-2013 08:12 AM
Any word on those expanding corn acres in the dakota's, montana, and the prairie of canada. Are those millions of acres of expansion going to materialize as predicted just a few months ago? ------------------------- I think it was in phase 2 of "get the grain markets under control", anyway------- quite a while back.
05-22-2013 11:10 AM
Our friends at Gazeta do Povo newspaper, located in Curitiba, Brazil, report that South American soybean production surpasses U.S. by 58 million tons. The oilseed yields 139.7 million tonnes in the fields of the three countries (Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay. Also, export volume is 39% higher than the U.S.