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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,250
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk May 24

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The July corn futures settle 25 1/2 cents lower at $5.78, while the Dec. contract ends 9 1/2 cents lower at $5.13 1/2. The July soybean contract settled 14 cents higher $13.76 1/2, while the Nov. 2012 contract finished 19 3/4 cents higher at $12.77 1/2. The July wheat futures closed 2 cents lower at $6.63 1/2. July soyoil futures finished $0.50 higher at $49.41. The July soymeal futures settled $5.20 higher at $411.00. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.99 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 49 points.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The July corn futures trade 10 1/4 cents lower at $5.93 1/4, while the Dec. contract trades 4 1/4 cents lower at $5.18 1/2. The July soybean contract is trading 17 cents higher $13.79 1/2, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 14 cents higher at $12.76. The July wheat futures are trading 3 1/4 cents higher at $6.68 3/4. July soyoil futures trade up $0.52 at $49.43. The July soymeal futures are trading $5.30 higher at $411.10. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.28 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 36 points.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The July corn futures trade 4 cents higher at $6.07 3/4, while the Dec. contract trades 2 3/4 cents higher at $5.25 3/4. The July soybean contract is trading 16 1/2 cents higher $13.78 1/2, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 14 cents higher at $12.72 3/4. The July wheat futures are trading 8 3/4 cents higher at $6.74. August soyoil futures trade up $0.41 at $49.54. The July soymeal futures opened higher. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.88 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 9 points.

 

Mike

-------------

At 8:10am:

Market Note: Soybeans and wheat have jumped sharply higher, since 7:30am. Corn is trying to stay in positive territory.

 

Mike

---------

At 8am:

--International Grains Council Thursday raised world 2012-2013 corn output by 13.0 mmt., and lowered wheat output 5.0 mmt.

 

Mike

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At 7:45am:

So far, I'm seeing corn pull back, following the weaker-than-expected weekly export sales figure. Soybeans and wheat seem to be trading at about the same level as they were before 7:30's report.

 

Mike

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At 7:30am:

USDA releases negative corn sales and friendly wheat and soybean Weekly Export Sales:

 

Corn=482,000 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 900,000-1.1 million metric tons.

 

Soybeans=953,700 mt vs. the trade's expectation of 700,000-1.1mmt.

 

Wheat=827,000mt vs. the trade's expectations of 400,000-800,000mt.

 

Soymeal=176,600.

 

Soyoil-24,000 mt.

 

The instant trade reaction was what?  Not much, maybe a bit negative from what I can tell. How about you? What are you all seeing with this market in-play as the numbers are released?

 

Mike

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At 7am:

--Taiwan buyer seeks 120,000 mt of soybeans from either U.S. or Brazil for Aug.-Sep. delivery.

--Japan seeks 320,000 mt of feed wheat and barley. Japan usually buys from Canada, U.S., Australia or France.

 

Mike

-------

At 6:40am:

Early calls: Corn 3-6 cents higher, soybeans 13-15 cents higher, and wheat 7-9 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$1.08 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen higher as investors pay little attention to weak economic news from Asia.

World Markets=Europe stocks are higher, Asia/Pacific stocks are mixed.

 

USDA will release Weekly Export Sales Report at 7:30 this morning. It should set the tone for today's grain trade. Interestingly enough, the new electronic trading hours will allow us to see the instant trade reaction to this Report.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,341
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 24

[ Edited ]

mike, soya and wheat have hit their sales target............and both targets have been raised since last fall..........

 

wheat is winding down and ready to head into another year...........long ways to go before the marketing year is done for soya and corn......

 

corn is not that far behind either............

Advisor
vrbuck
Posts: 912
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk May 24

Inspections are behind the pace needed to reach the wasde goal.  There is no seasonal export pace and every year is different.  This year isn't last year.

 

Senior Contributor
Buckley_HF
Posts: 165
Registered: ‎12-29-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk May 24

Buck when you say there is no "seasonal" pace to exports can you explain what you mean? As I always assumed, maybe wrongly, was that as SA crop became available during late winter/early spring buyers switched to those supplies and vice versa when our NC was available fall/early winter. Am I wrong to assume this? That's what makes the past couple months in soya sales fairly impressive. Or not I guess...
Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,341
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk May 24

just ignore VR comments.........

 

his own numbers disprove his own comments........

 

according to the way he dices his numbers we would not have hit our sales/shipment targets last year........

 

i am not sure what VR does for a living, but the qualifications fall very close to a walmart greeter.........breathing.......

Senior Advisor
Jim Meade / Iowa City
Posts: 2,571
Registered: ‎04-30-2010
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Argumentum Ad Hominem

MT argues that VR has no qualifications for his assertions, therefore they are wrong.  This is an interesting example of an ad hominem attack in which the person is discredited and therefore the argument is dismissed.  Of course, a person can have no particular qualifications on any issue without necessarily being wrong.  The facts concerning the issue are what is at question, but it is easier to just denigrate the person making the argument.  That avoids having to deal with the facts or cite specific examples.

 

But, this is all in good fun.  Nothing different than the gentle badinage heard in the local coffee shop.  :smileyhappy: 

 

 

Advisor
vrbuck
Posts: 912
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk May 24

 

The year dictate the inspection pace not the so called seasonal arbetrary pace someone has given to it.  last year importers where looking at a short crop and they where short on coverage.  In that case they keep sales in an uptrending market until late in the year.  This year the earlier sales they made are underwater and it is in their benefit to cancel previous sales.  In this case the inspections are worse late in the year.  The year dictates the pace not some seasonality some has given to it.  Little tigger has been saying inspection will get better late in the year since last year they did get better.  It is wrong. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,341
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

JIM, I have disproved

his process in previous post...........its that plain and simple........

 

his process tells us that we would not have hit the numbers we did last year...........

 

its that simple..........the fact its even a debate at this point after proving the process wrong blows my mind.........

 

its like dealing with government.............

Senior Contributor
GoredHusker
Posts: 1,709
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: JIM, I have disproved

The problem with using the inspection pace in comparison to the previous year at this moment in the marketing year is the fact that USDA doesn't do a very good job of accounting for rail exports.  Last year, it looked obvious we were going to come up short following the weekly inspection pace.  When it was all said and done, we didn't come up short due to the rail exports into Mexico.  I'd venture to guess this year won't be a lot different with regards to the rail exports. 

 

Rumblings I'm hearing is ethanol usage might get a 25-50 million bushel bump as we're running ahead of schedule.  Exports might get a 25-50 million busel bump.  Feed demand might fall 25-50 million as many in that industry believe USDA has it overstated.  In the end, we probably wind up somewhere around 750-800 million for carryout. 

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,633
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: JIM, I have disproved

MT, Your last line just may be on to something.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"