05-27-2014 07:56 AM - edited 05-27-2014 03:09 PM
After the close:
USDA Crop Progress Report Tuesday Shows:
Corn=88% planted vs. 88% five-year average. Also, 60% of the U.S. corn has emerged vs. 64% 5-year avg.
Soybeans= 59% planted vs. 56% 5-year average. Also, 25% of the crop has emerged vs. 27% 5-year avg.
See full report here.
What do you think? Are you surprised at these amounts? And, how do you think tonight's markets will react?
At the close:
The July corn futures contract closed 8 cents lower at $4.69. The Dec. corn futures settled 9 cents lower at $4.65. The July soybean futures contract finished 26 3/4 cents lower at $14.88. The Nov. soybean futures closed 27 cents lower at $12.38. July wheat futures closed 11 cents lower at $6.41 per bushel. The July soymeal futures contract closed $8.40 per short ton lower at $494.20. The July soyoil futures ended $0.44 lower at $39.94. In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.42 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 61 points higher.
The July corn futures contract is trading 7 cents lower at $4.71. The Dec. corn futures are trading 8 3/4 cents lower at $4.66. The July soybean futures contract is 26 1/2 cents lower at $14.89. The Nov. soybean futures are trading 24 3/4 cents lower at $12.41. July wheat futures are 9 cents lower at $6.43 per bushel. The July soymeal futures contract is trading $8.50 per short ton lower at $494.10. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.30 lower at $40.08. In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.36 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 61 points higher.
Dustin Johnson, EHedger grain analyst, says that soybeans are sharply lower today after a lower trade on the Dalian exchange overnight.
"I personally think beans got way overcooked to the upside, considering the carryout projections for next year. Managed money is still very long beans and corn and this looks like liquidation from a favorable forecast," Johnson says
RSI is not a factor for Nov beans, at 54.32 using a 14 period on the daily chart. It really only got above 70 just a few times in 2014, so it has been a rather gradual climb. December corn's RSI is 32.11 which is low but not below 30 which is a key level. I generally don't trade strictly off of RSI, it is just one of the factors to watch. The new crop corn to soybean ratio at 2.66:1 which is very high for this time of year, especially considering all of the bean acres we are supposed to get this year, may mean November soybeans are overvalued and need to catch up to corn."
Looking ahead: This afternoon's USDA Crop Conditions Report is expected to show corn plantings at 85%, less than the 5 year average of 89%, soybean plantings are expected to be over 60% complete, and Spring Wheat plantings over 70% complete.
Also, a note from a technical trader shows July corn weekly low target at $4.58. The market is digesting the ideal growing weather for this week.
At the open:
The July corn futures contract is trading 6 cents lower at $4.72. The Dec. corn futures are trading 6 cents lower at $4.68. The July soybean futures contract is 13 cents lower at $15.01. The Nov. soybean futures are trading 19 cents lower at $12.46. July wheat futures are 9 cents lower at $6.43 per bushel. The July soymeal futures contract is trading $5.60 per short ton lower at $497.00. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.08 lower at $40.30. In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.58 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 39 points higher.
If you missed it Friday, the CFTC Report showed bigger net losses in the grain complex than trade estimates.
Managed Money net corn losses, on the week ending last Tuesday, May 20, were 48,000 contracts, while soybeans, oil, and CME wheat also posted double-digit net losses in that category.
Producers and merchants added nearly 54,000 net corn contracts on the week, with beans up over 10,000, oil up 15,000, and CME wheat up almost 14,000 net contracts on the week to May 20.
Early calls: Corn is seen 2-4 cents lower, soybeans 8-10 cents lower, and wheat 7-9 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Brent Crude Oil=$0.58 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen higher, housing data to be released Tuesday.
World Markets=Europe stocks were mostly higher, Asia/Pacific stocks mixed to higher.
More in a minute,
05-27-2014 09:21 AM
Sure is harder to see how much grain is sill in overabundance with all the new mega grain storage bin sites that have replaced the piles with tarps here in Ioway. Still saw a few piles the last few days of driving about.
05-27-2014 09:47 AM
Hobby it makes you wonder how many local coops are getting less and less inventory to work with while they drive through their county and say "had to be a big crop-- there it is."
It looks like more and more grain is pre committed to an end user at earlier and earlier dates. Another ethanol effect.
Middle men continue to get squeezed.
05-27-2014 12:50 PM
SW The local coops are getting overlooked because of large storage built on some farms. Some of the local coops are not competitive with their bids. Semi trucks haul right past the coop to the end user. Some farmers have better unloading, drying and storage then the coops.
05-27-2014 01:38 PM - edited 05-27-2014 01:39 PM
We are seeing the same, Slim. --------- (Overlooked by farmers as a marketing location.)
We have Coops in a real bind locally, especially with another bad wheat crop.
05-28-2014 07:49 AM