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05-28-2013 06:08 AM - edited 05-28-2013 03:39 PM
USDA Crop Progress Report indicates that 15% of the U.S. corn crop was planted last week.
Corn= 86% planted vs. the 5-year average of 90%.
Soybeans= 44% vs. the 5-year average of 61%.
At least one analyst thinks the USDA overstated Iowa's progress.
At the close:
The July futures corn contract settled 9 cents higher at $6.66. New-crop Dec. futures finished 14 cents higher at $5.51. The July soybean futures contract ended 33 cents higher at $15.09, new-crop Nov. soybeans settled 40 cents higher at $12.88. July wheat futures closed 4 cents lower at $6.93 per bushel. The July soymeal futures finished $14.10 per short ton higher at $442.30. The July soyoil futures settled $0.30 higher at $49.54.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.14 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 87 points higher.
The July futures corn contract is trading 3 cents higher at $6.60. New-crop Dec. futures are trading 8 cents higher at $5.44. The July soybean futures contract is trading 20 cents higher at $14.96, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 21 cents higher at $12.69. July wheat futures are trading 9 cents lower at $6.88 per bushel. The July soymeal futures are trading $9.60 per short ton higher at $437.80. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.21 higher at $49.45.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.45 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 150 points higher.
Pete Meyer, PIRA Senior Director of Agricultural Commodities, says the late plantings and flooding are the obvious major concerns at the moment for corn acreage.
"With many in Iowa and Minnesota facing their final corn planting date at the end of this week, the reality of the situation is sinking in. I believe that we’ve already lost three million acres of corn, not to mention the affect this flooding is having on the loss of nitrogen from the soil," Meyer says.
Nitrogen that runs through drainage tile helps no one, he says.
"The final issue is the size of the replant acreage. With this week’s weather looking wet once again, it’s a good bet that as many as 15 million acres of corn could be planted in June, if they’re planted at all. No one wants to see their corn pollinate in early August," Meyer says.
Mike North, First Capitol Ag, says the market is experiencing fireworks. "Obviously the 9:30 push gave us another exciting move in soybeans. With flash flood warnings in Iowa, many have taken on a defeatist attitude toward corn plantings and are already beginning to develop the same for soybeans.
However, the guess on this afternoon's USDA Crop Progress planting rate puts us near the 85% mark. "That is very close to the 5-year average," North says.
People have still not shaken off the late planting mentality. Weather will be watched closely this week as will fund activity. There is renewed optimism that the recent fireworks in grains coupled with growing nervousness in equities could bring more money into the trade. That would certainly allow the market to support a rally regardless of fundamental perception," North says.
Quite the double-digit rally underway. How long will she last?
At the open:
The July futures corn contract opened 6 cents higher at $6.63. New-crop Dec. futures opened 12 cents higher at $5.49. The July soybean futures contract opened 15 cents higher at $14.91, new-crop Nov. soybeans opened 17 cents higher at $12.65. July wheat futures opened 2 cents higher at $7.00 per bushel. The July soymeal futures opened $0.64 per short ton lower at $434.50. The July soyoil futures opened $0.41 higher at $49.58.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.02 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 72 points higher.
--USDA announces that China buys 120,000 U.S. soybeans for 2013-14 Tuesday.
--Brazils's Safras is estimating that country's 2012-13 soybean production will end up rising by 22%.
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher (old-crop), soybeans 10-12 cents higher (old-crop), and wheat 1-2 cents lower. Meanwhile, new-crop corn and soybeans are seen 7-9 cents higher and 10-12 cents higher respectively.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.66 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen higher, ahead of the following reports: Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence, and various manufacturing surveys.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher and Europe's stocks are higher.
WOW! What a rain for the Midwest, in the last three days! What a rain, what a storm! I'm not sure how widespread it was but lots of ponding occurring for that newly planted corn.
More in a minute,
05-28-2013 06:11 AM
One analyst is saying this morning: "I think that the last 15% (or about 14.5 million acres) of the nation’s corn crop will not get planted until the first or second week of June."
What do you think?
05-28-2013 06:40 AM
Morning everybody !
I think that the most important thing iswhere these acres are - that may - or may not get planted , if i thinking right here -- which do's happen once in a blue moon -- they are north of me -- WS , MN , the Dakota's and some state call Iowa -- lets face it here -- this corn in the Northern states is just about to push the limits = lower BPA and frost time . I think that alot in the dairy states will go in , no matter - they need the silage - plus they lost alot of there alfalfa .
Even if theses acres go to beans -- they won't be bin busters .
05-28-2013 06:47 AM
It`s surprising that many of us, especially in NCIA were sitting on that inside info for 2 weeks that these analysts are just now discovering But when it`s on the front page of the DM Register it`s old news. Buyers probably have enough sourced (corn) unitl Sept, so they can whistle through the graveyard `til then. Then there will be a packed theater rushing through a single door at the same time.
05-28-2013 07:14 AM
05-28-2013 07:24 AM
Allendale thinks we could be 85-90% planted in todays report! They must only be using a planted acerage number of 80-82 million acres then! Lots of ground in North Iowa still to plant. Hay cupboards are bare. First cutting is gonna be real short with this cool and wet weather. It is also gonna be real poor quality also.
All the Boo Hooing about the corn crop is justified, but the real gnashing of teeth should be over the short supply of hay. Also as the corn crop gets in later the chances of good corn stalk bales this fall really starts to fade. I also wonder what happens when we take an abnormally large amount fo this corn crop for silage.
Can you say peak milk?
05-28-2013 08:14 AM - edited 05-28-2013 08:16 AM
That would mean there is still about 10 million acres of corn to plant. 1.58 billion bushels of corn if you use USDA's 158 yield number. That's alot of corn not to have in the supply. 2 billion bushel carryout number? Baloney!
Mike, Just wondering how long they can keep the lid on this powder keg?