05-29-2012 06:26 AM - edited 05-29-2012 03:04 PM
USDA rates U.S. corn crop as 72% good/excellent, 23% fair, and 5% very poor-poor.
What is your reaction? Is that g/ex. rating too high?
After the close:
Updated weather forecasts:
Rain is expected to fall in the Midwest on May 31-June 1. Also, a new system shows rain early next week for the eastern Corn Belt and over Nebraska.
6-10 Day Outlook looks warm/hot. BUT, the heat does not reach the Eastern Corn Belt.
11-15 Day Weather remains the same: Very hot!
At the close:
The July corn futures settled 19 1/2 cents lower at $5.59, while the Dec. contract finishing 8 1/2 cents lower at $5.13. The July soybean contract finished 4 cents higher $13.86, while the Nov. 2012 contract settled 3 3/4 cents higher at $12.93. The July wheat futures ended 24 cents lower at $6.56. July soyoil futures closed up $0.06 at $50.18. The July soymeal futures settled $3.20 per short ton higher at $412.50.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.17 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 73 points.
The July corn futures trade 16 1/2 cents lower at $5.62, while the Dec. contract trades 7 1/2 cents lower at $5.14. The July soybean contract is trading 2 1/4 cents higher $13.84 1/4, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 1/4 of a cent higher at $12.89 1/2. The July wheat futures are trading 22 cents lower at $6.58. July soyoil futures trade up $0.18 at $49.94. The July soymeal futures are trading $3.00 per short ton higher at $412.30.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.05 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 85 points.
Though the markets haven't completely responded yet, new weather information is indicating rainfall for the Midwest from May 31-June 1. The U.S. model shows that Illinois will miss this rain but Indiana gets it. However, the European model shows just the opposite. Near term, the hot forecasts have backed off a bit. But, the 6-10 day looks hot/warm in the Corn Belt, but colder up north of the Corn Belt. The 11-15 day outlook, for the Midwest, is looking really really hot.
Corn turns lower, wheat gets pummeled too. Soybeans rally off of tight stocks and lower world output estimates.
At the open:
The July corn futures trade 3 cents higher at $5.82 3/4, while the Dec. contract trades 2 1/2 cents lower at $5.19. The July soybean contract is trading 15 cents higher $13.97, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 13 cents higher at $13.01 3/4. The July wheat futures are trading 11 cents lower at $6.68. July soyoil futures trade up $0.50 at $50.61. The July soymeal futures opened $4.50 per short ton higher at $413.80.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.71 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials areup 133 points.
No fresh export sales this morning. Corn and soybeans are now trading higher on the e-trading market. What is still lower. Analysts see this afternoon's corn and wheat goo/excellent ratings declining from a week ago.
Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents lower, soybeans 7-8 cents higher, and wheat 10-12 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading sharply mixed.
Crude Oil=$0.35 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen higher, following long holiday weekend.
More in a minute,
05-29-2012 06:33 AM
A lot of marketwatchers want to know what the new forecasts are saying, for the Midwest. As of this morning, the U.S. weather models have a wetter 6-10 day outlook than the European weather model. By noon today, we should have an update.
05-29-2012 07:34 AM
For us right now 5% is cooked and will make little to nothing. 3-weeks without a drop of rain. We have already taken the top off of the yield potential of this crop. Let your boys know to think a little longer term than the 6-10/8-14. We have had the warmest meteorlogical spring (mar-may) in 142 years of record keeping. We have had 8-months of above normal temps. There is no long term change that is showing up. We need more than a half inch to change things I'm afraid.
05-29-2012 07:44 AM - edited 05-29-2012 07:46 AM
You're right. A lot of this Corn Belt crop could use a solid drink. It looks like some rain is coming. Will it be enough? The market bears are latching onto a wetter forecast, while the bulls say that rain that is coming is not even close to enough, before it is suppose to turn hot/dry again next week.
Did you see the weekend reports of purple corn in Indiana? I guess it will survive, they are saying. Too many consecutive nights of cold temps turned the young plants purple.
05-29-2012 08:00 AM
We wont make it through a hot dry summer in the shape we did last year. We have little subsoil moisture. I guess they can play any way they want it just depends on what model they are looking at.
Did not see the purple corn but we have had it here mostly in Pioneer seedlings. It can be cold related phosphorus uptake.
We were looking at crops Sat. and do have some corn starting to turn that pale blue color from lack of moisture. Stinks.
05-29-2012 08:04 AM
05-29-2012 08:08 AM
Is nobody looking at the drought monitor map? It has continued to spread and join the southern two with the northern one for weeks. For sure some areas got off to a great start but there is definitely a shortage of moisture overall. I think already we can say there will not be trendline yields unless there is a widespread 1.5" rain within a week. Some people seem to have their head in the sand right now.
05-29-2012 08:12 AM
I've seen purple corn. But, this was pretty widespread in the field. And according to the agronomist being interviewed, that area had a lot of it, due to the cold temps. I'm not saying it is anything close to a market mover, just caught the story on the news. Following the story, the anchors made a typical uninterested comment, "As long as it's not purple when I eat it. It's suppose to be yellow right?"
05-29-2012 08:18 AM
Their head may pop out of the sand this afternoon. The USDA is expected to drop the crop condition ratings for corn and wheat. A reality check may be coming around 3pm today. Of course, watch for the first reality check around 11am or 12-Noon, when the updated weather outlooks are released. Plus, I'm not sure the funds have their heads in the sand, as they get long the corn market, according to Friday's CFTC report.
05-29-2012 08:45 AM
Mike we flat out missed the rain...Not a drop fell here over night. I see parts of Indiana and Ohio are getting nice rains this morning and that could pull this market down a little? My last rain was May 6th. We seem to be no strangers to drought here but I have never seen a drought starting in May. Corn and beans both seemed to have stopped growing. If we don't get rain in the next three or four weeks we could be zeroed out in corn by July.