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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,133
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk May 3

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The July futures corn contract settled 3/4 of a cent lower at $6.61. New-crop Dec. futures finished 5 cents lower at $5.53. The July soybean futures contract closed 15 cents higher at $13.87, new-crop Nov. soybeans finished 17 cents higher at $12.21. July wheat futures ended 7 cents lower at $7.21 per bushel. The July soymeal futures closed $0.30 per short ton higher at $406.50. The July soyoil futures ended $0.78 higher at $49.27.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.68 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 133 points higher.

 

One analyst sizes up today's markets like this: "I think beans are all about the tight cash markets and corn is finally remembering the tight cash as well.  Wheat on the fact that the crop tour did not find absolute disaster I guess, plus the freezes are passing now.  Talk of somewhat better weather in the Midwest next week hurting new crop corn and beans.  But overall I do not see the markets breaking much as we are in May and just a little fieldwork is getting done.  We need the better weather.  The other thing I note is that beans did not rally quite like the corn and wheat earlier in the week but are today while the other two rest."

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The July futures corn contract is trading 1/4 of a cent lower at $6.61. New-crop Dec. futures have fallen 3 cents at $5.56.The July soybean futures contract is trading 18 cents higher at $13.91, new-crop Nov. soybeans are 12 cents higher at $12.16. July wheat futures are trading 5 cents lower at $7.23 per bushel. The July soymeal futures are trading $5.40 per short ton higher at $411.60. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.55 higher at $49.04.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.01 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 158 points higher.

 

One analyst says, "We don't see anything that sticks out as to why the corn market is struggling. Our best guess is the November Soybean/December Corn spread is coming off its lows on profit taking ahead of the weekend."

 

Mike

--------

At the open:

The July futures corn contract opened 3/4 of a cent higher at $6.63. New-crop Dec. futures opened 1 cent lower at $5.58.The July soybean futures contract opened 3 cents higher at $13.76, new-crop Nov. soybeans opened 6 cents higher at $12.10. July wheat futures opened 3 cents lower at $7.25 per bushel. The July soymeal futures opened up at $406.40. The July soyoil futures opened $0.35 higher at $48.83.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.18 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 130 points higher.

 

Mike

----------

At 6:30am:

 

Early calls:  Corn is seen 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 6-8 cents higher, and wheat 5-7 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.53 per barrel higher
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening flat, ahead of the U.S. April Jobs Report Friday.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks were mixed and Europe's stocks are higher.

 

By the way, folks, it is still snowing in central Iowa. It has been snowing here, since about 7am yesterday morning. The ground is white. The dandelions in my yard were killed, it appears.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,133
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 3

We're approaching 24-hours of an Iowa radar map showing continuous snowfall. WOW!

Here's what it looks like, at this 7am hour:

 

interrad-3.gif

 

I'm dumbfounded. Talked with a couple of Iowa farmers that have planted 200 and 300 acres of corn already. Hey, it's past the insurance date.

 

 

Mike

Advisor
jrsiajdranch
Posts: 2,120
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 3

We ended up with 11 inches total.  It has stopped snowing here.29 degrees when I went out for chores.

 

photo.JPG

 

This was taken yesterday morning.  The field behind it was planted to corn on Mon.  No It's not mine.

Advisor
jrsiajdranch
Posts: 2,120
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 3

Mike I know of guys with over 1,000 acres planted already. Lots around 500 acres planted.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,133
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 3

jrsiajdranch,

 

So let's take this field in your picture. And, I can tell you this is what the trade is trying to understand. So, if this snow melts quickly, and temperatures warm, I imagine the moisture will help this corn in the ground. But, what happens if the overnight temps remain cold? What happens if the corn shoots through the snow? Don't laugh, I just talked to a farmer that just had sweetcorn emerge through this week's cold, snowy weather. He now is more concerned than when the seed was just in the ground.

 

I realize there isn't a lot of corn planted, yet, in these cold, snowy conditions. But, what are you hearing about how this corn will do? A lot of questions, not a lot of answers. It hasn't snowed in May, in Omaha, since 1967. Maybe that is why there are few, solid answers.

 

What say you or anyone?

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

Advisor
jrsiajdranch
Posts: 2,120
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 3

Fields that were planted on Mon. may be OK Any fields that had the seed do any swelling or start to germinate will have yield reduction.  we saw that last year around here.  Hard thing to quantify will be what does this do to chemicals which have been applied? 

 

I know I am much more comfortable having my seed in the bag right now. 

 

But still this pushes back hay 2 weeks here. 

 

You really want to know about a shortage talk hay!

 

In fact I talked to a hay broker in Kansas that sayd they haven't taken off thier first yet. Last year he was about to start second!

Veteran Contributor
fringeacres
Posts: 127
Registered: ‎07-22-2011
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Re: Floor Talk May 3

Pioneer did a corn physiology program last winter and this is what I got out of it. Corn germinates at 50° but it absorbs the water to enact that process within a few hours. Therefore it would make since that corn that had been planted a few days or had germinated with a below soil growing point is in better shape than corn put in as the front arrived. That being said all seeds won't die and as thick as most now plant they probably can take a 15% hit as long as it is scattered and not spotty. Now from this point forward is a guess. Melting snow makes land sloppier than any other precip because it isn't packing like a rain. Land worked up will stay messier than no till and snow cover makes for colder nights. My opinion, not a disaster yet but puts a lot of pressure on gdu accumulation from now on and missing equinox sunlight that makes the northern tier the powerhouse producing region it became through the last warming CYCLE.  Good luck and follow grandad advice nothing is new, just maybe new to us.

Senior Contributor
teaspoon73
Posts: 210
Registered: ‎05-17-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 3

Is this heaven? No this is IOWA!   Isn't that pretty! You know what happens to corn with 6inches of snow on top of it. Likes to sprout and then start growing in the warmest direction. in this case China.  Then after aweek of this it tries to turn around and leafs out or runs out of energy or if its lucky finally making it to sunshine. Take you two weeks to figure out if you need to replant. Don't worry, plenty of time and lots of seed available.  There is plenty of corn available. 

Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 790
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 3

It seems to me it depends from one year to the next what this corn will do.   The snow probably insulated the seed from the really good night air.   But This cold snow is really going to drop the soil temp, and like someone else stated it takes that water up to germinate.  My best guess is that there will be stand lose, but how much, I don't know.  I think it was Iowa State or Pioneer said that you should stop planting 5 days before a cold front approaches. This gives the seed chance to absorb the warmer temsp before the cold hits it.  But they where talking about planting in late March, early April, not the last day of April.    

When I was in college, late nintys we got a April snow around the middle of the month, there was some corn planted, it didn't hurt it. But in my opinion that seed corn back then had a better cold tolerance then what we have now. Some guys would plant that corn back 10-15 years ago and it would lay in the ground for 30-40 days some years and it didn't hurt the stand more then a 2000 plants  an acre.   We did that once, the seed was in the ground for 30 days before it didn't a thing,   it was alright.   If you do that with the seed corn we have the last 5 years or so, it doesn't work, it never comes out that early stress.   At least that is what I have seen.    

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,272
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 3

24-48 hours before it hit is fair game for issues

 

before that might be ok

 

cold rain vs snow

 

hard to tell

 

snow melt can be pretty darn cold

 

probably have some crusting issues too, seed needs to breathe and get warm very soon

 

bigger issues is, a big chunk of the cornbelt got set back another 7 days or so