05-31-2012 06:20 AM - edited 05-31-2012 01:39 PM
At the close:
The July corn futures settled 2 3/4 cents lower at $5.56, while the Dec. contract finished 1 1/2 cents lower at $5.19. The July soybean contract closed 31 1/4 cents lower $13.42, while the Nov. 2012 contract settled 22 cents lower at $12.71. The July wheat futures ended 11 1/4 cents lower at $6.42 1/2. July soyoil futures ended down $0.39 at $49.30. The July soymeal futures closed $14.90 per short ton lower at $395.00.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.25 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 4 points.
Soybeans remain down double-digits, corn up slightly and wheat stays lower. One floor trader says the market bias has not changed much but the market structure has. "Soybans were in retrospect overly subscribed with fund length and it has been a month of liquidation. Dollar strength in light of EU problems, has helped to move the majority of beans off the farm in Brazil. Chinese and EU importers moving to spot traders with high uncertainty in financial markets all helped to break price trends.
Beans are on 50% retracement and not interested in giving back upside coverage without knowing crop area or yields. Recent rains in Iowa look too light to afford comfort. Index rolls will wrap up within another 10 days of trade and would assume take some of the pressure off of futures inverses and flat price. The crescendo of this interest is most likely done after today," he says.
Yet a grain analyst sees the market this uh way: "Grains have held well, but the soy complex is seeing what I think is a lot of liquidation trading. Some of the weakness has to be based on the rain, some is based on the calendar. Cash markets are tight, but demand news is hard to find. I would not be surprised if we are near lows. Crops will be looking good after this rain, and now we traditionally start to dry out a bit so I think we should be near a low."
The July corn futures trade 2 cents higher at $5.61 1/2, while the Dec. contract trades 1 1/4 cents higher at $5.21 3/4. The July soybean contract is trading 24 1/4 cents lower $13.49, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 19 1/4 cents lower at $12.73 1/4. The July wheat futures are trading 6 1/4 cents lower at $6.47 1/2. July soyoil futures trade down $0.54 at $49.15. The July soymeal futures are trading $10.80 per short ton lower at $399.10.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.14 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 3 points.
One floor trader says the macroeconomic factors have their thumb on the farm markets. "Risk off because of europe. Investors are long beans, still, but flat wheat and corn."
With this being the last day of the month, it's worth noting that May has been tough on the farm markets. Since May 1, we have taken $1.60 off of the soybean market and 77¢ off of the corn market, basis July. Will June be friendlier? And what makes you think it will be or won't be?
At the open:
The July corn futures trade 1 1/2 cents higher at $5.61, while the Dec. contract trades 1/2 of a cent lower at $5.20. The July soybean contract is trading 8 1/2 cents lower $13.65, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 5 1/4 cents lower at $12.87 3/4. The July wheat futures are trading 3 1/2 cents lower at $6.50 1/4. July soyoil futures trade down $0.42 at $49.27. The July soymeal futures opened $4.70 per short ton lower at $405.20.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.31 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 57 points.
Boy! Unless things pick up between time, next Thursday's Export Sales Report could be really weak. In fact, tomorrow's report shouldn't be anything to write home about. Again today, nothing shows up on the daily sales board. Wow! Demand has really fallen off lately. The world economy must be slowing, as many signs indicate.
--Japan seeks 320,000 mt of feed wheat and feed barley from Canada, U.S., France and Australia.
--U.S. economy grows slower than expected in the first quarter, the Commerce Dept. reported Thursday. Plus, more people filled out jobless claims last week. Make no mistake, the corporations coffers are growing, reports show. Corporate profits, after tax and unadjusted for inventories and capital consumption, grew the most since 2009.
--USDA Weekly Export Sales will be released Friday, due to the Memorial Day holiday-shortened week.
Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 1-2 cents lower, and wheat 2-3 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.22 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen headed higher, ahead of U.S. jobs data Thursday.
More in a minute,
05-31-2012 08:56 AM
Good morning Mike: If the importers are like us farmers if we don't need it this minute and it keeps falling like it is why buy? Especially if they are like China and cancel and buy cheaper. Farmers wait till they think it's at the bottom then wait some more and then panic. Just the opposite of the sellers. But not the readers of this site of course.
05-31-2012 10:18 AM
Here's Scott Shellady's top 3 outside factors to watch, he says in today's Big Picture video:
- Bond market
- U.S. GDP
Do you agree? Here's the full video: