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05-04-2012 06:42 AM - edited 05-04-2012 08:07 AM
Exclusive Story: Agriculture.com has learned that Brazil sees importing U.S. soybeans as likely. No significant amounts of soybeans have been exported to Brazil in over a decade. What do you think?
Read full story: "Brazil Eyes U.S. Soybean Imports"
It looks like the outside markets will be pressured today, due to fewer nonfarm payroll jobs added in April. There were 115,000 jobs added when economists expected 168,000. Talk of jobs lull setting in for Spring, Dow drops.
Here they come. More large export sales!
--USDA announces Friday that 240,000 mt of U.S. corn was sold to Mexico for 2012-13 delivery.
--USDA announces Friday that 120,000 mt of U.S. soybeans were sold to 'unknown' buyer for 2012-13 delivery.
Fyi: Informa Economics, the private analyst firm, will release its May crop estimates at 10:30am this morning.
At 6:30 am:
Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 6-8 cents higher, and wheat 4-6 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$1.14 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading higher ahead of U.S. Payrolls Report.
World Markets=Mostly lower.
More in a minute,
05-04-2012 07:09 AM
Great story Mike, really puts into perspective the somewhat serious supply situation we now face globally. If China keeps buying beans from us everyday it may be hard for Brazil to come here and even find any left on our shelves. I don't want to hijack your story or anything but I found this article this am that kind of goes hand in hand with this situation. http://www.agrimoney.com/news/brazil-farmers-lobby-to-ensure-corn-bet-pays-off--4481.html
Sounds like the farmers in Brazil may have bet to big on corn production and not big enough on soya?
05-04-2012 07:12 AM
05-04-2012 07:25 AM
The sky is always falling! Starvation lurks around every corner. Gasp.
Talk about a story that is old news. Pretty sure the Big C's (Cargill and China) knew they had supply issues 2 months ago,
you know when beans were $12 not $15. Kind of explains the vertical $3 rally. The point being it explains the past, not the future, which is exactly the way news always works.
05-04-2012 07:25 AM - edited 05-04-2012 07:39 AM
On top of all this, the Buenos Aires Exchange Thursday lowered Argentina's soybean crop, again. This time, the crop has been cut by 2.0 million metric tons to 41 mmt. And plenty of private crop estimators have their number between 37-39 mmt. So, yes, there seems to be some real shortages in South America.
05-04-2012 07:30 AM
Maybe. But, if you consider that Brazil won't have another crop until February of next year, and we don't even have our crop in the ground, I'm not so sure this story is all about the past. If you are the risk manager for your marketing portfolio, you might want to consider the nature of the story.
05-04-2012 07:41 AM - edited 05-04-2012 07:48 AM
not sure at least one of the C's knew.................if they did they would have been calling looking for soya at $11 and $12 last fall instead of $15 last week..............
EDIT: now that I think about it............neither one of the C's knew or they both would have been doing that...............
05-04-2012 08:13 AM
One to three inches of rain in our area the last few days and now they are predicting 3-4 more inches in the next few days.....most of the corn is in around here but not all of it and those that are done with corn are just starting beans. Those who planted corn before the 20th of april are now deciding what to do with it as the stands are very poor and one field here has already been replanted. Things were looking great here a week ago but now things are changing fast and may not be an early finish or the best of stands if this heavy rain comes.