05-06-2013 06:41 AM - edited 05-06-2013 03:54 PM
After the close:
USDA Crop Progress Report:
The report is seen as friendly for tonight's corn market, neutral-to-friendly for soybeans.
The 12% corn planting rate compares to the five-year average of 47%, and 71% a year ago. One analyst noted that Illinois had just 7% corn planted, about half of what was expected.
At the close:
The July futures corn contract closed 24 cents lower at $6.36. New-crop Dec. futures finished 15 cents lower at $5.38. The July soybean futures contract settled 18 cents lower at $13.69, new-crop Nov. soybeans settled 14 cents lower at $12.07. July wheat futures settled 18 cents lower at $7.02 per bushel. The July soymeal futures closed $5.30 per short ton lower at $401.20. The July soyoil futures finished $0.51 lower at $48.76.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.31 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 12 points higher.
One analyst sizes up today's lower market. He says, "This is simply a function of weather premium coming out of the market. Short covering is what drove the market higher. In the absence of both rain and new buyers in the short run, the market is subject to such breaks. The charts for new crop corn continue to walk along the same channel lines that have been governing the chart since early February. With no change in forecasts we are subject to further break downs, with potential lows on December corn in the neighborhood of $5.10 and rebounds never quite reaching their previous highs…perhaps $5.50. Old crop corn never filled the gap it left on its April Fools move lower and could invite some buyers to test the $6.76 number. However, old crop values are being guided by developments in new crop fundamentals and the consequential posturing by traders. Soybeans will be hesitant followers as any change in the forecast gives rise to more probable changes in planted acres. Wheat will likely continue its following of corn as feed rations work to attract the better alternative and exports favor alternate locations at higher prices."
Everything is nosediving. Corn, soybeans and wheat are all down double-digits. The July futures corn contract is trading 23 cents lower at $6.38. New-crop Dec. futures are 17 cents lower at $5.35.The July soybean futures contract is trading 13 cents lower at $13.73, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 11cents lower at $12.10. July wheat futures are trading 19 cents lower at $7.01 per bushel. The July soymeal futures are trading $5.50 per short ton lower at $401.00. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.18 lower at $49.09.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.02 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 1 point higher.
One analyst says, "This is weather related. Soybeans not dropping as much as corn on the better planting weather, because the market thinks the acreage switches will be minimal if at all. I think that is probably about right. We look for this afternoon's Crop Progress Report to show 15% in corn and 4% in soybeans to be planted, I have no problem with those ideas. Cooler and wetter later this week, but not the big storms of last week, so there will still be some progress in some areas. Wheat down as what is done is done. The weather is getting better out in the Plains states. So, we will have whatever crop is out there. Kind of a buy the rumor and sell the fact kind of thing, today. Specs have been active sellers for sure. I'm not seeing much commercial buying interest at all, although I am sure there is some," he says.
At the open:
The July futures corn contract opened 15 cents lower at $6.45. New-crop Dec. futures opened 17cents lower at $5.36.The July soybean futures contract opened 2 cents loer at $13.84, new-crop Nov. soybeans opened 8cents lower at $12.13. July wheat futures opened 11 cents lower at $7.09 per bushel. The July soymeal futures opened $2.80 per short ton lower at $403.70. The July soyoil futures opened $0.14 higher at $49.40.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.50 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 130 points higher.
It looks like the trade sees this afternoon's Planting Progress Report showing 10% (some say 15%-20%) corn planted vs. a 48% five-year average and 71% rate from a year ago. Even 10% seems high, to me. But, what do I know. Also, watch for the mid-day weather forecasts to be updated. That forecast could be market-moving Monday.
Early calls: Corn is seen 14-16 cents lower, soybeans 5-7 cents lower, and wheat 8-10 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.54 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening flat, with no earnings and other data to trade.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher and Europe's stocks are mixed-to-lower.
More in a minute,
05-06-2013 07:19 AM - edited 05-06-2013 07:28 AM
I could see 10%, if the first 4% doesn't need to be replanted, thats the question. I hear stories around home of a few guys that have 500 acres in, but then there are guys that haven't started yet. I think the trade is going a little over board with corn futures down 20 cents. But whatever.....
I just looked at the NOAA long range weather forecast. from June till August ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. I'm sure that late corn will catch up with GDU's.
I hope those hedge funds guys leave some money in the corn market incase we get another drought. Even with all of our "wet weather" it isn't extremely wet here yet. Just enough to get everything going in my opinion. Its been cool enough that it hasn't dried out good that gives a cover up to the drought that still sits over us.
05-06-2013 07:59 AM
Quote from HIGHyields : just looked at the NOAA long range weather forecast. from June till August ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
Oh come on here high ! Chit fire --they can't predict tomorrows weather -- let alone this summers ! eveything will be just fine , then we will really see PEAK corn -- 15 Billion -- here we come --