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05-07-2012 06:37 AM - edited 05-07-2012 01:27 PM
At the close:
The July corn futures settled unchanged at $6.20. The July soybean contract ended 10 1/4 cents lower $14.67 1/2. The July wheat futures settled 3 3/4 cents higher at $6.13 1/4.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.73 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 4 points.
The markets still can't find positive traction. One analyst says, "I think the US Dollar strength, due to the French and Greek elections, is part of the selling, plus the good growing conditions here in the US is part of it. I am pretty quiet, but my spec side wants to sell and I am sure I am not alone in that. Not seeing much buying interest from anyone, so far today!"
Another Brazilian consultancy has lowered its 2011-12 soybean crop estimate for that country Monday. By lowering the crop 4.4%, Brazil's soybean output is now seen as 11% lower than the 2010-11 crop.
The July corn futures trade 4 1/4 cents lower at $6.16. The July soybean contract is trading 17 cents lower $14.61 1/4. The July wheat futures are trading 7 1/2 cents lower at $6.02. The July soymeal futures are trading $7.00 per short ton lower at $425.60 and July soyoil futures trade down $0.22 at $53.43.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.21 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 26 points.
One analyst says, "Good Midwest rains over the weekend assisted early planted grains, as well as outside markets being lower, have helped a bearish mood for the day," he says. Additionally, a drier long term forecast looks to assist planting in a wetter top soil. A of this leads to a further bearish tone. But, today's low may hold now through to what's expected to be a bullish crop report Thursday."
At the open:
The July corn futures trade 2 1/2 cents lower at $6.17 1/2. The July soybean contract is trading 8 1/2 cents lower $14.69 1/2. The July wheat futures are trading 5 cents lower at $6.04 1/2. The July soymeal futures opened $0.40 per short ton lower at $428.60 and July soyoil futures trade down $0.50 at $53.60.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.13 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 37 points.
USDA announces that 100,000 mt of U.S. soybeans were sold to an 'unknown' buyer for 2011-12 delivery. No sign of any corn sales.
A sweep through the daily analyst wires and the Dow Jones Newswire finds:
--Taiwan seeks 40,000-60,000 mt of soybeans from either U.S. or Brazil.
--This afternoon's Crop Progress Report will show U.S. farmers 70% finished with corn planting.
--Rumors spread that China booked 500,000 mt of U.S. corn Friday. We'll find out at 8am, if this is true.
Here'a a look at this week's corn market, from a technical perspective:
Tom White, FutureRoad.net and a CME Group floor trader says, "The market showed weakness for most of last week, as it traded to fill a gap to the $6.07 3/4 area, which was Thursday’s low. Traders should keep closing prices of gaps in mind as they generally provide decent support or resistance. After making a slight new low on Friday, the market rebounded back to the 34-day period moving average (high+low+close/3), where it has recently been holding. We should stay open to trade in either direction, in the coming week. Trade above $6.34 3/4, on Monday, could generally be a bullish sign on the week and would indicate a potential test of the mid-line."
At 6:30 am:
Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents lower, soybeans 8-10 cents lower, and wheat 3-5 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.68 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen falling as a result of Greece's and France's election results. A lot of uncertainty is building about the two country's ability to handle austerity measures, with the new elected government leaders.
A lot of rain is falling right now in the Midwest in the states of: Nebraska, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and others. Already soaked ground is now starting to show ponding of water. Plus, cooler weather is expected for the rest of the month. The last part of the corn may have a tough time being planted on time. As a result, maybe more soybeans than expected, will get planted?
More in a minute,
05-07-2012 07:00 AM
05-07-2012 07:27 AM
I will say that I saw very little activity in northern and western Illinois, eastcentral and central Iowa, over the weekend. May has not been kind to the corn seed in the ground, and may keep some seed in the bag for awhile. I didn't see any replant situations, in those areas mentioned above. But, if it keeps raining, I guess that could certainly change.
05-07-2012 07:53 AM
I love the fact that a couple of months ago all the "bears" could talk about was how big the SA crop would be and we were going to He!! in a hand basket...... Now it's the US crop..... I guess they old saying will come true..... Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while......Have a great day..... p-oed
05-07-2012 08:49 AM
For those that got the gully washing rains over the last couple of weeks, that is always negative yields. But, for those of us just getting normal rains that keep you out of the fields; I have to think you better take the rain. Down the road you may be glad you have it in the soil profile. With the ground temps warming up, corn planted this week will be up as fast as corn planted late April of some years. I would lean heavily that corn planted last week of April thru May 10 will out yield corn planted before that, unless you were under one of those gully washers. Time will tell.
Looks dry the next few weeks, that is good for the crop. Those high grain prices have allowed farmers to up the equipment to make the window for planting go even quicker. So, high prices are GOOD for food security. Don't know why we want to give away our grain as 'cheap' as possible. Especially when you look at the trade inbalance we run year after year.
Still acting a lot like 1987.