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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,154
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk May 8

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The July corn futures settled 3 cents higher at $6.23. The July soybean contract ended 27 1/2 cents lower $14.38 1/4. The July wheat futures closed 3 cents higher at $6.15. The July soymeal futures closed $9.20 per short ton lower at $417.30 and July soyoil futures closed $0.31 lower at $53.27. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.46 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 123 points.

 

Mike

------

At mid-session:

The July corn futures trade 9 1/2 cents higher at $6.29 1/2. The July soybean contract is trading 17 1/4 cents lower $14.48 1/2. The July wheat futures are trading 6 1/4 cents higher at $6.18 1/2. The July soymeal futures opened $5.30 per short ton lower at $421.20 and July soyoil futures trade down $0.16 at $53.42. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.08 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 137 points.

 

Alan Brugler, President of Brugler Marketing & Mgmt says, "For May corn, closes above $6.85, on the weekly chart, would open the way to $7.12. As I tell my clients "Carries are finite, but inverses are infinite". If you get full carry, selling dries up in the nearby and prices rally away from full carry. In an inverse, when there is no supply to pull forward from the back months, there is no limit to how high prices can go, convincing users to substitute wheat, DDG or something else for the corn."

 

Mike

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In early trading:

The July corn futures trade 10 cents higher at $6.30. The July soybean contract is trading 5 3/4 cents lower $14.60. The July wheat futures are trading 6 1/2 cents higher at $6.18 1/2. The July soymeal futures opened $0.50 per short ton lower at $426.00 and July soyoil futures trade down $0.27 at $53.31. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.51 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 183 points.

 

Mike

--------

At 8am:

USDA announces Tuesday that China bought 225,000 mt of U.S. soybeans, both old & new crop.

 

This leads me to this question. On Thursday, where do you see the USDA pegging carryouts? Here is roughly where the trade sees 2011-12 estimates, give or take a few million bushels. Are you in agreement here?

 

Corn=758 million bushels.

Soybeans=221 million bushels

Wheat=781 million bushels

 

 

Mike

--------

At 7:25am:

--Japan seeks 151,416 mt of milling wheat from U.S., Canada, and Aust. origins.

--S. Korea buyer purchased 112,000 mt of feed wheat Tuesday from optional origins, DJ Newswire reports.

--S. Korea has secured 23,000 mt of U.S. wheat.

--The U.S. corn planting rate of 71%, as of Sunday, is the sixth fastest pace on record. Soybeans are 24% planted, USDA said Monday.

 

Great planting and growing weather is coming. Wet fields will dry out and emerged crops will get warm temperatures to shoot higher. I suspect a lot of spraying will occur in the next two weeks. Back to market-like talk, today's markets could be subdued ahead of Thursday's USDA Report, analysts are saying.


Mike

------

At 6:30 am:

Early calls: Corn 5-7 cents higher, soybeans 2-4 cents higher, and wheat 5-7 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$1.11 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen falling as a result of Greece's inability to choose a new government.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks are higher, while Europe's are lower.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 8

sixth fastest............and this is the first year we hear talk of 1BB of 90 day corn ready in July???

 

 

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,154
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 8

This crop is screaming along. Looks like that pipeline could get filled in late August by more corn than first-thought, huh? Of course, there are plenty of growing days ahead and that picture could change a few times before August.

 

Analysts are still watching old-crop corn and new-crop soybean markets closely. Those two have the real (bullish) potential, I guess.

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 8

[ Edited ]

corn hits the pipeline in August every year...........just not 1BB from IL.........

 

EDIT: temps in the low to mid 70's and lows in the 40's is nice...........but that does not generate massive amounts of GDU's.........I wouldnt say screaming............

Senior Contributor
Buckley_HF
Posts: 165
Registered: ‎12-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk May 8

All our 90 day corn got wiped out with 4" in 12 hours Sunday night in ecil. Water is receding but replant will be necessary. From a perfect start to a mess in half a day. I'd say we have a long time to go for the entire Midwest to grow that 16 bbu crop! Anything can happen.
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,154
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 8

What about the soybeans that were already planted? What happened to those seeds, after that big rain Buckley_HF? Will there be replanting with the beans too?

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,585
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk May 8

Mike, I thought that I read that the USDA will not let the corn carryout number get below 800.......My guess is, they will increase exports, but "find" that same amount of corn in my bins to keep the carryout the same as the last report.    Of course, my bin augers are clanging, but that probably won't change their thinking.

I do see them lowering soybean stocks.....there has been so many bushels reported as sold, I don't think they can "find" extra soybeans.

Wheat, I really have no idea........

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,981
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk May 8

The USDA... anyone's guess, mine for them 210

 

in reality 150 or less by harvest. Could be under 100 easily. Might be why the beans are / have been leading the way. The eastern half of the US is already having a very hard time keeping the pipeline supplied. Just check basis levels east of the Miss river for proof).

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Senior Contributor
Buckley_HF
Posts: 165
Registered: ‎12-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk May 8

Mike, lots of ponds will be dubbed in, both corn and beans. Not a lot of beans up but will be interesting. It will be quite awhile before field work can resume. As for carryout. I do not believe the USDA will drop carryout below 801. They've made that clear. And I have a feeling this report will be "bearish" because as u stated traders think they will drop it 50mbu or so.
Senior Contributor
Canuck_2
Posts: 4,118
Registered: ‎05-10-2010
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Re: Floor Talk May 8

While I see and hear how bins are empty in the US we are on export basis for price in Ontario and the latest Statisitcs Canada numbers as of March 31st. show more corn and soys than last year.

2011 corn production was 8.8% less but we have 8.1% more stocks on hand at 6.2 million tonne.

Soys also at record level at 1.9 million tonne up 19% and that from 2.3% less than 2010 production.

Full report here http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/120507/dq120507b-eng.htm

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