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marketeye
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Floor Talk November 1

[ Edited ]

At the close;

The Dec. corn futures contract settled 1 cent lower at $4.27. The Nov. soybean futures contract closed 14 cents lower at $12.66. Dec. wheat futures ended 1/4 of a cent higher at $6.67 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures contract finished $8.70per short ton lower at $394.90. The Dec. soyoil futures settled $0.26 higher at $41.59.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.71 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 51 points higher.

 

Looking Ahead: Tim Hannagan, Walsh Trading Inc., sees pre report thinking for next Friday is that yields, production, and ending stocks will come in higher for corn and beans and that the report will be measurably bearish.  "The wildcard is if the gov’t is not caught up from being closed during much of October and ends up surprising the market by not being as bearish as anticipated.  Should the government actually be caught up and the report comes out bearish as the trade is anticipating, it should end up being the last bearish supply side report of the year.  We then become a demand driven market.  So we should expect a low next Friday that will hold going into the end of the year," he writes in his weekly report to customers.

 

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the Dec. corn futures contract is trading 3/4 of a cent higher at $4.29. The Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 5 1/4 cents lower at $12.75. Dec. wheat futures are 2 3/4 cents higher at $6.70 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $6.60per short ton lower at $397.00. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.45 higher at $41.78.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.55 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 2 points higher.

 

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vice-president, says corn and soybeans are down on clearing weather for the harvest and no big new demand news.  "The reaction to the big sales yesterday was a big disappointment for the bulls, and now we are making new lows. So, some tech selling getting in there as well.  
The Informa crop estimates are bearish especially beans, Scoville says.  "Not a super high volume affair, but we are seeing more and more that the production is out there. So, there will be less concern about demand.  The problem is the beans demand especially is front loaded and the boys are not selling too much. So, spreads will stay narrow and basis should stay strong even with big production. But futures will struggle."
Wheat is higher on short covering before the weekend, Scoville says. "It has already been beaten up pretty good this week and I think some bears are closing out and taking some cash home, nothing more.  No fundamental out there to support wheat that I can see."

Mike

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At 10:45am:

 

Trade Reaction to Informa's #'s:

"They are bearish, but the marketneeds a 42-43 bu./acre beanyield to satisfy demand. And, I think corn could be 165 not 161 bu./acre," one CME Group floor trader says.

 

Mike

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At 10:35am:

Informa estimates U.S. Crop Production Estimates:

 

Corn =14.22 billion bushels with an averge yield of 161.2 bu./acre.

 

Soybeans=  3.29 billion bushel crop with a yield of 43.3 bu./acre.

 

Well, well, wel, what do you think about these big numbers? I'm curious.

 

 

Mike

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At 8:50am:

 

I'm hearing talk that corn is down because of a lack of feed demand from cattle. But, there is no shortage of world demand.

--In the last 4 days, S. Korea buyers have purchased 773,000 tons of wheat, corn and oil  & meal.

--USDA announced Friday that China bought 115,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for 2013-14 delivery.

--USDA announced that an 'unknown' buyer picked up 33,000 tons of soybean oil for 2013-14.

 

Mike

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At the open, the Dec. corn futures contract is trading 1 cent lower at $4.27. The Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 2 3/4 cents lower at $12.77. Dec. wheat futures are 1 1/2 cents lower at $6.66 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $2.50 per short ton lower at $401.10. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.35 higher at $41.68.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.87 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 67 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 7:45 am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 5-7 cents lower, and wheat 1-2 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.57 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen lower, with stimulus doubts.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were mixed-to-lower, Europe stocks mixed to lower.

 


More in a minute,

 

Mike