Marketing

[marketeye]

At the close:

The Dec. futures corn contract closed 2 1/4 cents higher at $7.25. Jan. soybean futures contract closed 11 cents higher at $14.19. Dec. wheat futures settled 2 1/4 cents lower at $8.48 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract finished $0.65 higher at $47.67. The Dec. soymeal futures contract settled $2.90 per short ton higher at $436.00.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.94 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 158 points lower.

One analyst says, "Soybeans are higher on the Chinese and 'unknown' demand, but wheat and corn not getting the demand news today and having trouble.  
"Much of the buying in beans I think is speculative, but there is spec- selling interest left over as well.  Not seeing much commercial action today.  Basis levels are very strong and people are starting to talk this up a bit," he says.  
Also, at least for me, soybeans made some down side targets and can at least trade sideways for now, he says.  
Corn has some downside potential left, but buyers are short bought. So, you will likely start to hear of demand starting to pick up like the South Korea buy today of optional-origin corn.  Overall, the market needs bullish news to keep this going, it might just turn sideways now instead of going up or down," he says.

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 5 cents higher at $7.28. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 12 cents higher at $14.20. Dec. wheat futures are trading 1 cent higher at $8.52 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.66 higher at $47.68. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $2.20 per short ton higher at $435.30.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.74 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 83 points lower.

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading unchanged at $7.23. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 16 cents higher at $14.24. March wheat futures are trading 1/2 of a cent higher at $8.65 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.58 higher at $48.95. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $4.40 per short ton higher at $434.60.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.08 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 44 points lower.

Mike

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At 8am:

--USDA announces Wednesday that China bought 120,000 mt of U.S. soybeans for 2012-13n delivery.

--USDA announces Wednesday that 'unknown' buyer picks up 40,000 mt of U.S. soyoil.

DEMAND has arrived!!

Mike

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At 7:50am:

--NOPA soybean crush report Wednesday shows October crush at 153.53 million bushels, up 33.80 million  bushels from a month ago. This puts Sep-Oct. crush up over 5% from a year ago.

Wow! We're crushing more, at a time when supplies are tight and South America's next crop is still unknown. Will we have to curttail usage at some point?

Mike

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At 6:10am:

--As the November soybean contract goes off of the board today at 12-Noon, watch to see how much premium is transferred to deferred months, one analyst suggests this morning.

--There's a new world wheat number out Wednesday. AgResource sees world wheat production falling to 649 million tons v s. 695 million last year. What do you think? Does wheat drop that much?

Mike

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At 6:00am:

Early calls:  Corn 5-6 cents higher, soybeans 11-13 cents higher, and wheat 4-6 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.22 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher

World=Asia/Pacific stocks are lower, and Europe's stocks are lower, due to anti-austerity strikes across Europe Wednesday.

More in a minute,

Mike

[giolucas]

Mike,
Does your perception change on the grains that we should continue to trade the USDA report? Soybeans rebounded impressively and brought the grains out of the red.

[roarintiger1]

I am still thinking that wheat leads this whole thing higher......

[ECIN]

Moring all ! Well just look at the Ukraine crop , it is down , as well as the EU , what about Austraila wheat ? The drop sounds like alot , but in the big picture , is it really ? Rt - i will go with you on that , wheat will lead . Alot has been feed and country's ( exporters ) has to be running low, soon you would think , will they come to us or will wheat price itself out and they go back to corn ? giolucas , they will always use the USDA's number , right or wrong , lol

[marketeye]

giolucas,

We're starting to see trickles of demand in the corn market. Why? I think it's because of Brazil port congestion and those Asian buyers looking elsewhere to fill those emergency purchases. The market has been looking for any case of demand rejuvenation. Result equals two consecutive days of higher trading. Now the news of continued smaller world wheat crops. Corn is getting help without asking and looking for it. Up we go!!

Mike

[giolucas]

Thanks Mike, very good information.

ECIN,  I have no problem with the USDA report.  Just looking for other market factors.

[glenlivet18]

Just completed a 90-cent score yesterday from the short side in soybeans, now I've got a buy signal at 1430.  Down one day, up the next.  You have to have a short memory with these markets, and not get too attached. 

[ECIN]

giolucas , I read this morning from Ag Resource's that they expect the EU to import betweeb 10 to 12 mil. ton of corn -2012 / 2013 , that is up from the 6 mil ton last year , and they may have a hard time sourceing there corn from the Ukraine and Brazil , so that may open the doors here some . Also they said that the stks to ratio in the world are the lowest in nearly 40 years . , they predicted corn at 9 by may .

[JCCWIS]

Soooooooo....ECI are you still sitting on those bins full of......last years corn????? And I have to wait until May for $9.00 corn....don't know if I can hang on that long !!!  John

[giolucas]

ECIN, 

Thank you for the info.