11-14-2011 06:23 AM - edited 11-14-2011 05:36 PM
At the close:
The Dec. corn futures settled 5 cents lower at $6.33 1/2. The Jan. soybean contract finished 2 3/4 cents higher at $11.78 1/4. The Dec. wheat futures closed 1 cent lower at $6.15 3/4. The Dec. soymeal futures ended $0.30 per short ton lower at $299.20. The Dec. soyoil futures closed $0.24 higher at $51.22.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.10 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 74 points.
The Dec. corn futures are trading 5 cents lower at $6.33 1/2. The Jan. soybean contract is trading 7 1/2 cents higher at $11.83. The Dec. wheat futures are trading 3/4 of a cent lower at $6.16. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $1.14 per short ton higher at $309.90. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.32 higher at $51.30.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.74 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 43 points.
One analyst says, "says the market is supposedly digesting talk of China soybean buying. "It's very quiet day here, waiting for news on MF Global and Europe like everyone else," he says. "Europe's situation is maybe more of a market detriment than MF Global's bankruptcy. It is a tough time.
"Regardless, both have seemed to have knocked the markets back with no volumes to speak of and lots of unhappy people. I think the entire last two weeks have pushed people out and they will take some time to come back," he says.
At the open:
The Dec. corn futures opened 1 3/4 cents lower at $6.36 3/4. The Jan. soybean contract opened 8 1/2 cents higher at $11.81. The Dec. wheat futures opened 1 1/2 cents lower at $6.15 1/4. The Jan. soymeal futures opened $1.10 per short ton higher at $302.70. The Dec. soyoil futures opened $0.27 higher at $51.25.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.40 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 44 points.
Tom White, FutureRoad.net analyst and a technical corn pit trader on the floor of the CME Group, says classify your market perspective on a short-term vs. long-term basis. In his
The market traded back and forth last week. We saw some strengthening in the early part of the week as we broke out of a triangle on a shorter-term chart. However, we still had to confirm on the daily charts that the bias of the market had changed. As shown in the charts we were never able to do so. Friday’s market held below the “cut through” trend line on the 30-minute chart which contributed to the market staying bearish. Objectives for that trend line break were met on Friday. The charts also show that we traded to the bottom line on a triangle for the daily charts. If we open and hold below that line (basically Friday’s low and close) on Monday, it would reconfirm our basic bias that the “intermediate” term bias favors another move lower. However, as we have stated in past reviews, the “longer-term” (i.e. weekly) charts still could eventually favor the long side. Again, it depends on time frame perspective. It is short term versus long term."
Early calls: Corn up 4-6 cents, soybeans 8-10 cents higher, and wheat up 2-4 cents.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$1.19 lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading mixed-to-lower. Investors are awaiting Italy's new leader to put together a new government. Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel is calling for a "new Europe". The euro-zone story is far from over.
World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks are higher, Europe's markets are lower.
More in a minute,
11-14-2011 10:18 AM
11-14-2011 10:37 AM
Marketeye is traveling along I-80 today. I'm seeing a lot of field work. You name it and someone is doing it in these rolling hills across central and eastcentral Iowa. I'm seeing tiling, chiseling, harvesting, nitrogen application, and even coyotes chasing one another across just harvested bean fields.
Let me ask this. Have you priced anhydrous for next spring? I'm hearing the sellers are pretty proud of their supplies and the prices are really really high? All of this tiling leads me to believe that a lot more corn will be seeded in 2012. Have you decided to follow a market that says plant corn? Or, are going to stick to your farm's age-old philosophy of crop rotation, and evenly planted intentions? What do you think the market is telling you, as we sit here headed for winter?
11-14-2011 11:29 AM
Marketeye......head for SW Wisconsin and NE Iowa if wanting to see corn piles and corn still in the field......went to Dubuque last Wednesday night, then up to Tomah on Thursday.....4-8 inches of snow on the ground in SW Wisconsin......but they were back at it on Saturday morning.....we came through Prairie Du Chien and there were 50+ trucks waiting at the Bunge parking lot to be called down to the river ...this was about 10am on Saturday morning and we saw several combines running...
also saw corn piles in Manchester and Ryan, IA
northeast crop district in Iowa was projected at 182 bpa on last week's report.....the trip through that area made me a believer in that number.....
11-14-2011 11:37 AM
Very good question about acres for 2012. Locally, it will be extremely difficult to get the corn acres back. We were hit with hail, but the real damage came from the diseases. There are a lot of irrigated fields here that have been corn every year since the ground became irrigated. Some guys picked high moisture corn and then planted wheat. The though process here is they will plant the ground to cane for hay after they cut the wheat. Cane hay prices have skyrocketed this year, and those doing this are betting the drought down south continues. If hay prices stay in this area, they'll net more by double cropping the wheat and cane than they would with corn. Others are talking of going to soybeans for a year just to break up the disease cycle. The seedcorn companies really have their work cut out for them this upcoming season locally because some hybrids and some companies seed completely fell on their face this year. Irrigated yields were not great at all this year, but the dryland yields were excellent. This is why most of us have ruled out hail as being the culprit for poorer irrigated yields. Almost all of the dryland fields are rotated between wheat, corn, then fallowed a year. The dryland was great because of the disease breakup. I think irrigated corn acres will be down significantly this next year unless something major happens via corn prices.
11-14-2011 12:07 PM - edited 11-14-2011 12:09 PM
Gored, you hit it with the acres deal..........you gotta look past the obvious.........yes we know NE, IA, IL, IN, OH, etc are going to plant a lot of corn............THEY DID IT LAST YEAR TOO...........the additional acres will have to come from fringe areas.........areas that have weather risk...........if you could gaurantee me that ND, SD, MN, KS, OK, TX would have favorable spring and summer conditions...........I would concede the bull argument right now and go quietly................
IMO we could see some major corn states stay static or move lower on corn acres for next year............heres the way I see it........we need to think of corn as a production number.........not acres and yield............WHY, because there is only so many prime cornbelt acres out there..........and those acres have to go COC to get more acres.........a lot of COC have taken hits in the last 3 years, yes 3..........and to Gored's point, a lot of disease and insect issues that need a reset............
We can plant more or less soya and wheat................but at the end of the day its about total corn production...........
Ray, you are correct, the far ENCIA and ECIA and NEIA is the garden spot............and for those of you that don't believe the frost did any damage...........look at a soya yield map of the northern teir states and IA............you can draw a line, kind of bowl shape of the frost line.............