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11-15-2012 06:42 AM - edited 11-15-2012 02:37 PM
At the close:
The Dec. futures corn contract settled 4 cents lower at $7.21. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 13 cents lower at $14.06. Dec. wheat futures settled 3 cents lower at $8.45 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract ended $0.21 lower at $47.46. The Dec. soymeal futures contract finished $5.50 per short ton lower at $430.50.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.88 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 59 points lower.
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 3 cents lower at $7.22. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 13 cents lower at $14.06. Dec. wheat futures are trading 1/2 of a cent higher at $8.49 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.05 lower at $47.62. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $5.30 per short ton lower at $430.70.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.46 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 39 points lower.
Wheat is a tick higher, while corn and soybeans are trading lower.
At the open:
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 1 cent lower at $7.24. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 6 cents lower at $14.13. Dec. wheat futures are trading 5 cents higher at $8.54 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.25 higher at $47.92. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $3.40 per short ton higher at $432.60.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.11 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 12 points higher.
--USDA announces Thursday that 32,000 mt of soyoil was sold to 'unknown' for 2012-13 delivery.
--Strategie Grains estimated Thursday that EU 2012-13 corn output at 53.6 mt, higher than previous. EU wheat output is pegged at 122.7 mt.
I wrote a story with analysts saying the soybean market could establish a new range between $14.00-$15.00. Do they think the market will penetrate that high of around $18.00? You'll have to take a look.
Here's the full story: $14-$15 Soybean Range.
Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 4-6 cents lower, and wheat 4-6 cents higher. The USDA's Weekly Export Sales will be delayed until Friday, due to this week's Veteran's Day holiday.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.13 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher ahead of U.S. Jobless Clains Report. Also, Wal-Mart reported higher revenue but lower profits for its third quarter earnings Thursday.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks are lower, and Europe's stocks are lower.
More in a minute,
11-15-2012 10:31 AM
My biggest take away from the article is the following:
" If this most recent price setback creates new interest in US soybeans again, we will probably have to switch back to rationing mode," Johnson says.
Considering that November is a time when daily U.S. export sales are expected, this year's seasonals are being knocked off of their pace, due to China booking soybeans early"
Rationing MODE= Higher prices because Chinese are buying.
11-15-2012 10:53 AM - edited 11-15-2012 11:00 AM
This soybean shortage was well advertised, before the latest USDA report that said we have more supply than first-thought. But, what Ann is saying is that if the market gets lulled to sleep on this idea that South America can supply the world next year, a shanghai surprise could happen if they have harvest logistics, weather problems, etc. On top of that, she is still concerned that China will need to buy more from the U.S. before South America's crop is available. In that event, rationing would be needed.
Speaking of Brazil, I just finished a farmer in the southern part of that country told me this morning that he is done planting 76% of his soybeans and 30% of his corn. Now get this, I received a message from a U.S. weather service saying the area this Brazilian farmer is located is set to receive a wet weather pattern for the next three weeks. BUT, the Brazilian farmer says he disagrees. Why? In his own words: "Here n Paraná, rain is occurring only in some parts. There are areas that have gone 12 days without rain. The rain in Piauí, Parana is low intensity. Planting began in Piauí with lower-than-ideal moisture conditions."
It's interesting to see what U.S. wx forecasters say and what may actually be the truth on the ground. This is why I love having sources around the world that we can use to bring credible information to Marketing Talk folks.
11-15-2012 11:09 AM
Maybe I look at things bassackwards, but I see it as prices haven't rationed anything. Yesterday, it was announced that we had a three year high for soybean crush. It was also the largest deviation from expected versus actual. These were last month's figures. We know that last month soybean prices were considerably higher than they are today.
Then, we get to the January report where analysts are already expecting harvested acres to fall 800,000 to a million acres. Unless the yield improves once again, we easily could lose between 30-40 million bushels off of the carryout taking us down to 100-110. The planting pace in SA is slower than last year and without a drought the harvest will not be sped up like last year. This could mean SA beans hit the market two weeks to a month later than last year making our beans have to stretch even further.
The obvious problem here lies with our gov't and their handling of the fiscal cliff. If the gains and such see drastic increases, it could very well slow money flow considerably.
11-15-2012 11:56 AM
ditto from goilucas.
don't see that much rationing has taken place in any of the grains, and thought perhaps that it could be telling what we saw day after election....$$$$ flow into grains....when everything else was selling