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11-18-2011 06:52 AM - edited 11-18-2011 02:08 PM
At the close:
The Dec. corn futures closed 4 1/4 cents lower at $6.10 1/4. The Jan. soybean contract ended unchanged at $11.68 1/4. The Dec. wheat futures closed 5 3/4 cents higher at $5.98 1/4. The Jan. soymeal futures settled $3.70 per short ton higher at $300.30. The Dec. soyoil futures closed $0.52 lower at $50.88.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.37 per barrel lower, the dollar is unchanged and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 41 points.
The Dec. corn futures are trading 11 3/4 cents lower at $6.02 3/4. The Jan. soybean contract is trading 12 1/2 cents lower at $11.55 3/4. The Dec. wheat futures are trading 2 1/4 cents lower at $5.87. The Jan. soymeal futures are trading $2.90 per short ton lower at $293.70. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.97 lower at $50.43.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.97 per barrel lower, the dollar is unchanged and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 2 points.
Weak export sales and holiday profit-taking seem to be the culprits for this Friday's lower trade, analysts say. Today's and yesterday's bean purchases from China should show up on next week's report.
At the open:
The Dec. corn futures opened 1/4 of a cent higher at $6.13. The Jan. soybean contract opened 1 1/2 cents higher at $11.70. The Dec. wheat futures opened 1 1/2 cents higher at $5.94. The Dec. soymeal futures opened $0.70 per short ton lower at $295.90. The Jan. soyoil futures opened $0.01 lower at $51.39.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.17 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 12 points.
USDA says Friday that China bought 124,500 mt of U.S. soybeans for 2011-12 delivery.
Tom White, FutureRoad.net analyst and CME Group corn pit trader, says today's market could consolidate. Remember, Mr. White is a technically-driven trader.
"The market broke several areas yesterday which contributed to heavy selling. We broke the trend channel which FutureRoad posted last night in the overnight review for their customers. We continued down through the weekly low and a previous low from several weeks ago. This confirmed the daily trend-line break which we discussed early in the week. After a trend day, the market should see consolidation trade today. There is a tendency after trend days for the market to trade on both sides of the opening range (open outcry). If the market does not close above 631 in any half-hour period, however, we will eventually create negative reversals (i.e. higher RSI values but turning from lower prices). Thus continuing lower price objectives," he says.
--S. Korea buys 55,000 mt of feed wheat and 125,000 mt of corn Friday. So, since Tuesday, S. Korea buyers have picked up 360,000 mt of corn and 220,000 mt of wheat.
--Taiwan bought 35,100 mt of U.S. wheat Friday.
--Japsan buyer picks up 23,715 mt of wheat Friday.
Early calls: Corn up 1-2 cents, soybeans 4-6 cents higher, and wheat up 2-3 cents.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$1.18 higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading higher, after two days of selling off. The market is trying to figure out the European Central Bank's role in Europe's debt crisis. Leaders are opposed as to how the ECB should act.
World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks are all lower, while Europe's stocks are mixed.
More in a minute,
11-18-2011 07:15 AM - edited 11-18-2011 08:13 AM
Since my reporting has been spotty this week, here's a recap of things I'm hearing about. Feel free to offer up your response on any of the talking points.
--U.S. hay prices are double the price, in some areas, vs. last year. Plus, higher prices are on the way, due to acreage shifts.
--U.S. hogs are eating more and more DDGs.
--China corn imports are seen doubling this marketing year. Meanwhile, China soybean imports, 52.4 mmt this year, are seen rising to 68.0 mmt by 2015-2016.
--China's economy is slowing and headed for a 'soft landing', with growth slowing.
--Money managers are 'long' corn, but backing off soybeans.
--South America's soybean production increases, trade protectionism, and biofuel policy changes have some traders and analysts saying soybean prices could be headed for $9.00, in the next two years.
--Ethanol prices are breaking records. Brazil's ethanol needs will stay high for the next two years, due to a slow-growing sugarcane crop.
--Some feel like the trade is not grasping next year's return of CRP acres and prevent plant acres. Those two acreage categories are seen bigger than the trade's penciling in.
--A few Illinois seed dealers say that of their annual average seed sales, they have already sold half of those for next year. And more corn seed has been purchased than soybeans.
What say you?
11-18-2011 07:57 AM
I respect your request for the source. However, as I've mentioned before, I have to respect the request of my sources from the floor of the CME Group and elsewhere, if they will continue to trust me. A lot of these floor sources and off-floor contacts are doing business for large companies. They are willing to let me pick their brain on market issues, with the understanding I protect them from getting fired. Simply put, a lot of this information aggregated for you and others by Marketeye is information that you might have to pay for elsewhere. However, since we have built relationships with floor and other market industry contacts, we are able to offer this information. Granted, some of it is way off sometimes, and other times pretty close, and yet other times can actually be right on and helpful. I ask for your understanding. In the end, it will help us to be able to bring a mixture of different perspectives on the markets to you.
Having said that, the $9 soybean talk is not coming from one market participant, rather numerous folks see this as a distinct possibility.
11-18-2011 08:05 AM
Good point and well-taken. Brazil is upping their soybean production this year to record levels. And to start the year, their crop is getting in the ground on time and receiving timely rains. It's very very early, I realize. But, the market is hearing big acres, good planting season, rains to follow, and that sparks bearish sentiment for the bean market. Again, put on your psychology cap to think like the market. Whether Brazil ever produces that record crop and gets favorable weather in January, February doesn't matter for today's price. The market's psychology is that the world could be awash in soybeans in 2012 and the price needs to reflect that now.
Hope this helps,
11-18-2011 08:17 AM
Not hearing that $4.00 corn talk. And here's why, maybe. It's widely believed that China is going to be needing huge amounts of corn in 2012. Also, you hear so much bullishness about ethanol plant needs, Brazil needing U.S. ethanol, a lower U.S. 2011 crop than some expected and so on. So, no sense that $4 corn is ahead.