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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,122
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk November 25

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The Dec. corn futures contract finished 2 1/2 cents higher at $4.24 3/4. The Jan. soybean futures contract finished 9 3/4 cents higher at $13.29. Dec. wheat futures closed 3 cents higher at $6.52 1/2 per bushel. The Jan. soymeal futures contract settled $9.40per short ton higher at $437.20. The Dec. soyoil futures closed $0.50lower at $40.66.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.84 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 39 points higher.

 

Mike

----------

At 12:50pm:

Soyeans have hit a two-month high, on a strong Export Inspection Report totaling 66.9 million bushels for the week ending Nov. 21.

I'm getting email messages from analysts that are alerting their customers to sell a certain percentage of their soybeans, based on target prces that have been hit on this rally. Are you a seller at this level?

 

Meanwhile, one analyst sizes up today's market action like this:  "Wheat and corn are having more month-end and shortened holiday short covering, while beans stated with long liquidation from last week's demand rally. It's all about positioning before closing and hours shortened later this week."

 

Mike

---------

At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 1 1/2 cents higher at $4.23. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 6 cents lower at $13.13. Dec. wheat futures are 2 3/4 cents higher at $6.52 per bushel. The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $0.20per short ton higher at $428.00. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.027 lower at $40.89.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.92 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 30 points higher.

 

One analyst says the corn market may see 10¢ rallies in the near-term, but nothing like a 50¢ rally. The weather is just too good in South America. Plus, now that we really don't rely on exports to push the corn market, those sales are not a factor. Do we have a short-term low in place, maybe. Keep in mind the funds are short corn and wheat. At some point, we will see some short-covering of those positions. Overall, she is just not very hopeful for a big swing to the upside.

 

Mike

---------

At the open:

The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 1 1/4 cents higher at $4.23. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 4 3/4 cents lower at $13.14 3/4. Dec. wheat futures are 4 1/4 cents higher at $6.53 per bushel. The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $1.00 per short ton lower at $426.80. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.05 lower at $41.11.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $1.89 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 13 points higher.

 

Mike

-------------

At 8am:

--USDA announces Monday that an 'unknown' purchased 120,000 tons of U.S. soybeans Monday.

 

Meanwhile, Tom White, Futuresroad.net analyst and CME Group corn pit trader, says there is a technical chance that this corn market goes higher.

He says, "We generally remain bearish on longer-term pitchfork and negative reversal patterns which we have posted in previous reviews. But there were some signs last week of potential firming for short-term purposes.  The charts now demonstrate how the market created a descending trend line and potential Wolfe Wave pattern. This pattern if develops would round out at a potential target and channel top of 446.25   It has not yet been definitively confirmed but we’ll monitor it over the coming week(s) to determine if we will see short-term firming and will report to all our Futureroad and agriculture.com  readers."

 

 

Mike

--------

At 7:45am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 6-8 cents lower, and wheat 2-4 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$1.40 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen higher.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher, Europe stocks mostly lower.

 


More in a minute,

 

Mike

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,952
Registered: ‎01-10-2012

Re: Floor Talk November 25

[ Edited ]

" now that we really don't rely on exports to push the corn market, those sales are not a factor."

 

monday's.jpg

The company that dude works for that said that above quote in RED needs to post this sign on their door...

 

monday's.jpg

 

 

Wonder whichIvy League school for idiots he attended?

 

Are there a whole floor of those "no clue" types? Might explain quite a few things around the CBOT...

 

I just don't think some forms of stupid are fixable.

 

Hey Faust send me down a Corona ... might take a case to get past this one.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Senior Contributor
lsc76cat
Posts: 227
Registered: ‎08-31-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk November 25

[ Edited ]

Gotta shake your head on that one.  At least now we know who was Les Nesman's fill-in for traffic and weather reports at WKRP.

Mike - Is there some context missing there?

“The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.” — Alexis de Tocqueville
Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,568
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk November 25

[ Edited ]

I really don't think these people reread what they write.   That has to be one of the dumbest things I've read all fall.  And........as they say.....you just can't make this stuff up.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,208
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Floor Talk November 25

Mike,

would love to see a chart of Tom White's potential Wolfe wave pattern - do you think he'd give you one to put up?

 

thanks,

 

c-x-1

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,122
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk November 25

[ Edited ]

Hobbyfarmer,

 

In a broader sense, the analyst is right. She was making the point that in her 30-year career in the grain market, the majority of the U.S. corn went into the export market. This year, only 12-15% of U.S. corn is projected to go towards the export market. Ethanol production has suplanted exports as the category for corn use. So, she makes the case that if you really want to follow the corn market effectively, you should watch the ethanol demand. Since profitability is really good for e-producers, that's good news for corn.

Near-term, she admits that U.S. corn is still competitive on the world market. World prices have come up, U.S. prices have come down.

Sorry to mislead folks on the analyst's perspective. Sometimes, I get to working too fast and post a partial comment. But, there is more to her statement than what I put up.


So, I hope this helps. By the way, c-x-1, where have you been. Show us one of your charts with the trading ranges for soybeans since Nov. 5. Wow! What a gap! And did I hear right, there have been not one but two roundtrips?

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,208
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk November 25

Mike,

I would love to compare notes with Mr. White:smileywink:

Senior Contributor
NDf
Posts: 329
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk November 25

Well marketeye if exports don't really move the corn market then why would good weather in SA matter.

Senior Advisor
kraft-t
Posts: 10,784
Registered: ‎05-10-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk November 25

I wonder why college educated folks are so disrespected. They know stuff. Perhaps even stuff that we don't know.  If one dumb azz farmer makes a dumb statement do we assume that all farmers are idiots.

 

Out here in farm country we have thousands of folks that are rather ignorant but still we diminish folks that have earned degrees in our great learning centers as if they are all blooming idiots. Generally it is conservatives that are most guilty of that. I would assume that a educated person made an idiotic post off the cuff rather than assume his education was without worth.

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,952
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk November 25

[ Edited ]

Gotta Wave the BS flag on that again...

 

Majority of our corn is/was exported before E?

 

We used to export more than 4 to 5 BILLION of corn? ....

 

Is she blonde?

 

 

http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?country=us&commodity=corn&graph=exports

 

1 to 1.5 billion bu of a 7 to 10 billion bu crop is over 1/2 of the crop?

 

What kind of "new age math" is this?

 

BTW it only takes 5% to make or break most any market of anything, especially perishable goods.

 

So 12 to 15% makes no difference? Good luck with that one. I suppose she has a bridge in Brooklyn for sale too?

 

This is simple econ 101.

 

30 years and still puts out BS?

 

0 credibility in my score book.

 

She banks on people having no thinking skills. Too many like Krafty that just follow blindly.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."