11-26-2012 06:30 AM - edited 11-26-2012 12:05 PM
At mid-session, the Dec. futures corn contract is trading 3 3/4 cents higher at $7.49. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 5 cents higher at $14.24. March wheat futures are trading 4 cents higher at $8.65 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.28 higher at $49.60. The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $1.90 per short ton higher at $425.30.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.22 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 76 points lower.
One analyst says, "Wheat and corn export prices are now getting pretty competitive with those around the world. As a result, we saw better demand for US corn and wheat last week and this could spill into the week as well. Bean complex eyeing the soybean oil sales to unknown, probably India and/or China. There is talk that export demand for soybean oil is already higher than what USDA has put out on the WASDE and that this estimate will need to go higher and ending stocks will need to go down. Weather looks ok in South America for now, but cold here in the Midwest. Warm in the Great Plains and the wheat out there is in trouble. So, all in all, l see some stuff that supports prices out there but nothing big enough to send prices much higher. But, people seem generally to be looking to buy if possible."
Weekly corn inspections are higher than what was estimated a week ago. Soybeans and wheat export inspections are below last week's estimates.
At the open:
At the open, the Dec. futures corn contract is trading 3 cents higher at $7.49. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 14 cents higher at $14.32. March wheat futures are trading 5 cents higher at $8.67 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.50 higher at $49.82. The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $4.40 per short ton higher at $427.80.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.22 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 74 points lower.
--USDA announces Monday that 20,000 tons of U.S. soyoil was sold to an 'unknown' buyer for 2012-13.
--Ukraine's grain harvest is down 19% vs. a year ago, according to the Dow Jones Newswire. Don't forget about that country's grain export ban that is expected to start Dec. 1.
Meanwhile, the bigger question that the trade has is whether Russia is the next domino to fall in the export banning business? My Ukraine contact tells me, this morning, to be sure to keep one export eye on Russia.
"If Russia began sales from its Intervention fund that means that the ban is inevitable. The open question is: when," he says.
I ask you all. What do you think a Russian grain export ban would mean to the U.S. wheat and corn markets? It seems like it would be bullish for a lot of reasons.
Early calls: Corn up 5-7 cents, soybeans 7-9 cents higher, and wheat 5-7 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$1.22 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening lower as investors continue to worry about the U.S. fiscal cliff that could trigger capital gains tax increases and ultumately sparking selling in the stock market. also, Greece debt concerns bubble back to the top, with that country's next debt payment coming up in mid-December.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks are mixed, and Europe's stocks are lower.
More in a minute,
11-26-2012 07:16 AM
Morning Mike , hope you had a good Turkey day weekend .
Just read that it appears that Argy on shipped 48,000 tons of corn to China last month -- NOT the 481,000 ton that was reported last friday , boy what a type O huh ? you hearing anything about this ?
Thanks , Ken
11-26-2012 08:06 AM
Good morning. No, I haven't heard that in the marketplace this morning. All of the talk is about macrofactors, wet Brazilian weather and the possibilities of increased U.S. exports through the end of this month. Also, I'm hearing the end-users are short -bought and cash prices will stay firm with those companies having to bid up to loosen the farmers' grips on this year's crops. How's your grip, are you losing it yet? Or, do you have a firm grip?
11-26-2012 08:16 AM
My Grip is strong is ever , lol
Really , I'm in East central IN and boy we have been short corn here sence last year , Alot of Elevators did everything they could do this fall to controll corn , = they can then controll basis better than last year . Problem we just didn't have the crop , so i'm playing with fire here but still think we will see basis go up after first of the year after they run out of fall corn . Problably wrong here , lol
If markets were to go on up , might do a HTA and see how bad a screw up I could do .
11-26-2012 09:23 AM
"Forecasters are almost at a loss for words at this point with no real chances of rain for the entire middle part of the country over the next 10-14 days, and higher temperatures." fcstone --this morning comments in wheat. IMO this is bigger than Russian exports. We have feeders hoping for a wheat crop to fill in the 12 corn production problems this spring.
Combining this with limited exports from eastern europe would be bullish I think.
Wheat has a much smaller irrigation base than corn.
11-26-2012 10:34 AM
Gio: don't blink
I think it is the calm before the storm ... Tight money and many countries including ours broke.
The grain trade IS HIGH FINANCE at these prices.
I am in ECIN's camp but will probably take some of these terrific prices off the table soon.
At these levels if you are "betting the farm" on better prices ....QUIT IT. We are at levells that is 50% better than last spring's fall contract prices that so many sold for.
Most left in the game with grain to sell are all on the same side of the ship, not a comfortable place for me to be.