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11-29-2012 06:49 AM - edited 11-29-2012 02:30 PM
To get a better handle on the world crop production and weather situations, I interviewed contacts in Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine. Grab a cup of coffee and learn some ground-truth. Note: The interviews were conducted before Ukraine's government flip-flopped on their decision to ban wheat exports starting this Sunday. So, just know that my references to that issue are dated.
VIDEO: Your World in Agriculture
Jason Meeker, Agriculture.com's Multi-media Editor produced the video. Thanks, Jason.
At the close:
The March futures corn contract closed 5 cents lower at $7.58. Jan. soybean futures contract settled 1 cent higher at $14.48. March wheat futures closed 5 3/4 cents lower at $8.85 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract settled $0.26 lower at $50.12. The Jan. soymeal futures contract finished $3.10 per short ton higher at $435.80.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.52 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 29 points higher.
At mid-session, the March futures corn contract is trading 3 1/2 cents lower at $7.60. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 1 cents higher at $14.47. March wheat futures are trading 4 cents lower at $8.87 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.06 higher at $50.44. The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $1.30 per short ton higher at $434.00.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.52 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 21 points higher.
The market is dealing with conflicting fundamentals, one independent CME Group floor trader, requesting anonymity, says.
"Export sales were poor today, the U.S. 'fiscal cliff' and the Greek debt bailout overhangs the market, and China continues to engage in talking down the market by reporting their ninth largest grain production this year," one independent CME Group floor trader tells Agriculture.com.
The floor rhetoric includes a threat of Pacific northwest port longshoreman striking (they handle 25% of U.S. grain exports, the floor trader says. "Also, the market is digesting the threat of the Mississippi River closing, South America's crop-weather, the continuation of the U.S. drought affecting the wheat crop, end-of-year selling to beat 2013 taxes, and soybean/corn ratio spreading. Right now, beans are cheap compared to corn," she says.
Meanwhile, a separate independent floor trader says, "The Rodgers roll starts today in bns. +sh/-sf for 3 days. Corn spreads giving up today. I think because of this river issue some are thinking deliveries are coming in corn," he says.
At the open:
At the open, the March futures corn contract is trading 1/2 of a cent lower at $7.63. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 7 cents higher at $14.53. March wheat futures are trading 2 cents lower at $8.89 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.25 higher at $50.63. The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $3.30 per short ton higher at $436.00.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.03 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 25 points higher.
USDA released bearish Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday:
Corn=263,500 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 400,000-650,000 metric tons.
Soybeans= 319,000 mt vs. the trade's thoughts of between 500,000-700,000 mt.
Wheat= 279,300 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 300,000-500,000 mt.
Soybean meal= 365,100 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 100,000-250,000 mt.
One analyst reacts to this morning's USDA Weekly Export Sales numbers:
"Corn exports showed a slow down on the week as expected after a 60 cent rally off the prior weeks low with importers being patient. Positive note was China was in for 58,000 mt. China purchases, always create a bullish mindset as their appetite always leads to big bites. Bean exports continue good but not great. Exports were down on the week after a 50 cent rally backed off the size of purchases with China in for 212,000 mt. versus 394,000 the week prior. Wheat exports were weak, down 56% from the week prior but wheat held early gains as china was in for 55,000 mt. There was talk out of china trade groups this week they may triple US wheat purchases this year and traders may think this is the beginning," he says.
Early calls: Corn up 1-2 cents, soybeans 7-9 cents higher, and wheat 2-4 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$1.08 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher with optimism showing up regarding a 'fiscal cliff' resolution. Third quarter GDP and first time jobless filings data will be released today.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks are higher, and Europe's stocks are higher.
More in a minute,
11-29-2012 08:06 AM
It's being reported that Ukraine's Grain Association sees that country's wheat export limit at 5.8 mmt, up from 4.0 mmt originally. Even though it sees exports having to reach 6.5 mmt before any shortages are reached, some believe those amounts will be reached in early December. So, the Ukraine wheat export ban "watch" is still on.
11-29-2012 09:08 AM
I can't ever see the video's. I get the page up and everything, just never loads the video ... Just a pale blue screen where it should be.
BTW ECIN, he looks pretty young in person from my old fellow perspective. Of course his wife and him just had twins a few months ago and he may be ageing double fast?