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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,188
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk November 5

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The Dec. futures corn contract closed 4 cents lower at $7.35. Jan. soybean futures contract finished 23 cents lower at $15.03. Dec. wheat futures closed 1 cent higher at $8.66 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract finished $0.94 lower at $48.32. The Dec. soymeal futures contract finished $6.90 per short ton lower at $469.00.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.96 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 9 points higher.

 

Mike

----------

At 12:45pm:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 5 3/4 cents lower at $7.33. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 17 cents lower at $15.09. Dec. wheat futures are trading 3/4 of a cent higher at $8.65 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.55 lower at $48.71. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $5.30 per short ton lower at $470.60.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.21 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 10 points lower.

 

Mike

---------

At mid-session:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 1/4 of a cent higher at $7.39 3/4. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 9 cents lower at $15.17. Dec. wheat futures are trading 8 cents higher at $8.73 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.35 lower at $48.91. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $1.60 per short ton lower at $474.30.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.15 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 9 points lower.

 

One analyst says the markets are digesting world crop-weather and election day prospects.
"The soy complex is about drier weather in southern Brazil and Argentina and wetter weather to the north. The wheat market is about drier weather in the Great Plains.  Corn is caught between," he says.  
Argentina's crop-weather is as interesting as Brazil's, with more longterm implications for the corn market, he says.
"I'm hearing that Argentina might not produce over 25.0 million tons of corn. So, prices could stay firm unless the weather down there turns perfect.  The soybean prospects are starting to get hurt with the planting delays too. So, the downside for soybeans is probably limited, as well," he says.
It is really quiet here today.  People are waiting on the elections and the USDA reports and not so concerned with doing much trading, I am sad to say."

 

Mike

-------

At the open:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 2 cents higher at $7.41. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 7 cents lower at $15.19. Dec. wheat futures are trading 5 cents higher at $8.70 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.44 lower at $48.82. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $0.60 per short ton lower at $475.50.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.03 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 32 points lower.

 

 

Mike

---------

At 6:45am:

I wanted to thank all of you for putting up with Jeff......I mean I wanted to thank Jeff for covering this slot last week. :smileyhappy: It sounds like he elevated the reputation of this thread to a higher level.

 

Note: I just received a list of prices for 40 commodities showing their averages since 2007. Guess the commodity with one of the highest percent-of-average? I'll give you a hint; it starts with a c and ends with an n. London feed wheat and Paris milling wheat topped the charts. But, corn came in third-best with a percent of average of 139%. Corn is up over $2.00 per bushel from the avg. price of $5.30 per bushel since 2007.

 

And if you're wondering, natural gas prices had the worst percent of average. Since 2007, natural gas prices are only trading at just 71% of that avg. Put another way, natural gas is currently trading $1.43 below its average since 2007.

 

 

Mike

--------

At 6:30am:

Early calls:  Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 7-9 cents lower, and wheat 3-5 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.02 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher, with more corporate earnings to be reported.

World=Lower.

 


More in a minute,

 

 

Mike

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,136
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk November 5

Mike,

Welcome back, do you have any thoughts on price action of the grains if Obama or Mitt is wins?

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,188
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk November 5

[ Edited ]

giolucas,

 

Thanks. It's good to be back. Personally, no I have no real feel what tomorrow will mean for the commodities. Well, that's not exactly the truth. But, I will defer to an offering, this morning, by AgResource in their daily wire to customers:

 

"Some argue that an Obama win would continue QE3 and a weaker US dollar - thereby supporting commodities.
Others argue that Romney's lower tax platform and pro-business stance is bullish."

 

What say you? Higher markets with an Obama repeat or higher markets with Romney? And please, let's not turn today's discussion into all politics all of the time. I know it could be real easy to get way off topic on this. But, it is relevant to share thoughts on where the markets could go in the years to come based on policy. I would think ethanol supporters would be glued to tomorrow night's results.

 

Mike

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,136
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk November 5

Not being political but think that most people think that Mitt is a business man and he would bring a business mentality to his policies.  I do not know if Mitt might want to get rid of subsidies which could ultimately have an affect on price?

 

President Obama has been good to the Ag community and I think that if he gets elected things stay the same and maybe there might be a push for more Ethanol .    

 

After the election tomorrow the USDA report comes out on Friday......Double wammmy. These markets could be on a roller coaster ride.

 

 Being Patient.

Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 792
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk November 5

In my personal opinion The commodity cycle ends in 2014,  so it really doesn't matter who wins the white house. 

 

I'm why more concerned with whats going on in South America and China?   Anything that is a big market mover?   Drought?   that would help with my $20 bean prediction.   China's economy going south would hurt the grain markets.  

Not to mention how many acres we are going to get next year.  Just imagine if we raise are stock to use ration on corn to 30%.  

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,188
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk November 5

giolucas,

 

There is a lot of attention turning towards this Friday's Report. Here are Allendale's pre-report estimates:

 

PRODUCTION          

In million bushels

                       11/12     12/13       12/13      
                        USDA      USDA     Allendale
Corn                 12358     10706       10618
Soybeans              3094      2860        2869
All Wheat             1999      2269        2269
 
US ENDING STOCKS           USDA       ALDL        USDA      ALDL
 in million bushels                   11/12        11/12            12/13     12/13
US Corn                                  988          988                619       736
US Beans                                169          169               130       137
US Wheat                                743          743               654       699
 
WORLD ENDING STOCKS         USDA      ALDL       USDA      ALDL
in million metric tonnes                 11/12     11/12      12/13     12/13
World Corn                                 131.54    131.54     117.27    118.35
World Soybeans                           54.79     54.79      57.56     57.44
World Wheat                                198.17    198.17     173.00    170.90

 

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,259
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Floor Talk November 5

[ Edited ]

election might take a few weeks to decide.

 

any word with production est. of harvested acres FINALLY being knocked down??

 

thx.

 i'm with you highyields, grains might "act" confused for a day or so, but it boils down to the economic facts here.

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,136
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk November 5

Thanks Mike.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,188
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk November 5

There is a lot of talk about Brazil's soybean planting season. Certainly, the trade is squarely focused on how the South American planting season is going. For those that attended our Marketing Meet-up in northern Iowa, recently, you had a chance to hear the Brazilian reporters from Gazeta do Povo newspaper talk about their Crop Expedition Tour. They have just completed a leg of their tour through Mato Grosso. Here is a snapshot of what they found.

 

They are reporting that 50% of Mato Grosso's intended soybean acres are planted. Crop Expedition estimates Mato Grosso has expanded soybean acres by 14% vs. a year ago totaling 7.89 million acres.

 

Mike

 

 

 

Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,071
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
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Re: Floor Talk November 5

Hey Mike is that 50 % planted up yet ? I have read that western part of Grosso is so dry that they may have to relant it . round here to raise a record crop , it need's to be dang near perfect from the get go to finish . And them extra acres ? just wonder how good that ground in on first year of production , I think there is just alot of hope out there for a big crop to save the world , lol BTW hope you had a good week of goofing off !