11-05-2012 06:32 AM - edited 11-05-2012 02:45 PM
At the close:
The Dec. futures corn contract closed 4 cents lower at $7.35. Jan. soybean futures contract finished 23 cents lower at $15.03. Dec. wheat futures closed 1 cent higher at $8.66 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract finished $0.94 lower at $48.32. The Dec. soymeal futures contract finished $6.90 per short ton lower at $469.00.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.96 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 9 points higher.
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 5 3/4 cents lower at $7.33. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 17 cents lower at $15.09. Dec. wheat futures are trading 3/4 of a cent higher at $8.65 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.55 lower at $48.71. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $5.30 per short ton lower at $470.60.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.21 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 10 points lower.
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 1/4 of a cent higher at $7.39 3/4. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 9 cents lower at $15.17. Dec. wheat futures are trading 8 cents higher at $8.73 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.35 lower at $48.91. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $1.60 per short ton lower at $474.30.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.15 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 9 points lower.
One analyst says the markets are digesting world crop-weather and election day prospects.
"The soy complex is about drier weather in southern Brazil and Argentina and wetter weather to the north. The wheat market is about drier weather in the Great Plains. Corn is caught between," he says.
Argentina's crop-weather is as interesting as Brazil's, with more longterm implications for the corn market, he says.
"I'm hearing that Argentina might not produce over 25.0 million tons of corn. So, prices could stay firm unless the weather down there turns perfect. The soybean prospects are starting to get hurt with the planting delays too. So, the downside for soybeans is probably limited, as well," he says.
It is really quiet here today. People are waiting on the elections and the USDA reports and not so concerned with doing much trading, I am sad to say."
At the open:
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 2 cents higher at $7.41. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 7 cents lower at $15.19. Dec. wheat futures are trading 5 cents higher at $8.70 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.44 lower at $48.82. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $0.60 per short ton lower at $475.50.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.03 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 32 points lower.
I wanted to thank all of you for putting up with Jeff......I mean I wanted to thank Jeff for covering this slot last week. It sounds like he elevated the reputation of this thread to a higher level.
Note: I just received a list of prices for 40 commodities showing their averages since 2007. Guess the commodity with one of the highest percent-of-average? I'll give you a hint; it starts with a c and ends with an n. London feed wheat and Paris milling wheat topped the charts. But, corn came in third-best with a percent of average of 139%. Corn is up over $2.00 per bushel from the avg. price of $5.30 per bushel since 2007.
And if you're wondering, natural gas prices had the worst percent of average. Since 2007, natural gas prices are only trading at just 71% of that avg. Put another way, natural gas is currently trading $1.43 below its average since 2007.
Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 7-9 cents lower, and wheat 3-5 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.02 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher, with more corporate earnings to be reported.
More in a minute,
11-05-2012 09:49 AM - edited 11-05-2012 10:59 AM
Thanks. It's good to be back. Personally, no I have no real feel what tomorrow will mean for the commodities. Well, that's not exactly the truth. But, I will defer to an offering, this morning, by AgResource in their daily wire to customers:
"Some argue that an Obama win would continue QE3 and a weaker US dollar - thereby supporting commodities.
Others argue that Romney's lower tax platform and pro-business stance is bullish."
What say you? Higher markets with an Obama repeat or higher markets with Romney? And please, let's not turn today's discussion into all politics all of the time. I know it could be real easy to get way off topic on this. But, it is relevant to share thoughts on where the markets could go in the years to come based on policy. I would think ethanol supporters would be glued to tomorrow night's results.
11-05-2012 10:24 AM
Not being political but think that most people think that Mitt is a business man and he would bring a business mentality to his policies. I do not know if Mitt might want to get rid of subsidies which could ultimately have an affect on price?
President Obama has been good to the Ag community and I think that if he gets elected things stay the same and maybe there might be a push for more Ethanol .
After the election tomorrow the USDA report comes out on Friday......Double wammmy. These markets could be on a roller coaster ride.
11-05-2012 10:41 AM
In my personal opinion The commodity cycle ends in 2014, so it really doesn't matter who wins the white house.
I'm why more concerned with whats going on in South America and China? Anything that is a big market mover? Drought? that would help with my $20 bean prediction. China's economy going south would hurt the grain markets.
Not to mention how many acres we are going to get next year. Just imagine if we raise are stock to use ration on corn to 30%.
11-05-2012 10:48 AM
There is a lot of attention turning towards this Friday's Report. Here are Allendale's pre-report estimates:
In million bushels
11/12 12/13 12/13
USDA USDA Allendale
Corn 12358 10706 10618
Soybeans 3094 2860 2869
All Wheat 1999 2269 2269
US ENDING STOCKS USDA ALDL USDA ALDL
in million bushels 11/12 11/12 12/13 12/13
US Corn 988 988 619 736
US Beans 169 169 130 137
US Wheat 743 743 654 699
WORLD ENDING STOCKS USDA ALDL USDA ALDL
in million metric tonnes 11/12 11/12 12/13 12/13
World Corn 131.54 131.54 117.27 118.35
World Soybeans 54.79 54.79 57.56 57.44
World Wheat 198.17 198.17 173.00 170.90
11-05-2012 11:02 AM - edited 11-05-2012 11:08 AM
election might take a few weeks to decide.
any word with production est. of harvested acres FINALLY being knocked down??
i'm with you highyields, grains might "act" confused for a day or so, but it boils down to the economic facts here.
11-05-2012 02:10 PM
There is a lot of talk about Brazil's soybean planting season. Certainly, the trade is squarely focused on how the South American planting season is going. For those that attended our Marketing Meet-up in northern Iowa, recently, you had a chance to hear the Brazilian reporters from Gazeta do Povo newspaper talk about their Crop Expedition Tour. They have just completed a leg of their tour through Mato Grosso. Here is a snapshot of what they found.
They are reporting that 50% of Mato Grosso's intended soybean acres are planted. Crop Expedition estimates Mato Grosso has expanded soybean acres by 14% vs. a year ago totaling 7.89 million acres.
11-05-2012 03:37 PM