11-07-2012 06:56 AM - edited 11-07-2012 02:45 PM
At the close:
The Dec. futures corn contract finished 3 cents higher at $7.44. Jan. soybean futures contract closed 8 cents lower at $15.07. Dec. wheat futures settled 17 cents higher at $8.94 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract closed $0.06 at $48.62. The Dec. soymeal futures contract finished $3.20 per short ton lower at $469.50.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $4.28 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 245 points lower.
What's up with ethanol?
The Renewable Fuels Association reports weekly EIA data Wednesday: Ethanol production averaged 827,000 barrels per day (b/d) – or 34.73 million gallons daily. That is up 2,000 b/d from the week before. The 4-week average for ethanol production stood at 813,000 b/d for an annualized rate of 12.46 billion gallons.
Stocks of ethanol stood at 18.1 million barrels. That is a 5.7% decrease from last week and the lowest of the year.
Flooding in Argentina is causing delayed corn and soybean planting. This could result in lower corn acres and a shift to more soybean acres. A full Dow Jones Newswire story.
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 5 cents higher at $7.46. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 6 cents lower at $15.09. Dec. wheat futures are trading 16 1/4 cents higher at $8.93 1/4 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading unchanged at $48.68. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $3.60 per short ton lower at $469.10.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $3.56 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 313 points lower.
One analyst says, "All three grains made sharp lows overnight on a knee-jerk reaction from the election results.
"The low was met by short covering and new buying. Beans hit a low, 75 cents off last week's high, and corn 21 cents off the high. So, traders want to cover risk and take profits ahead of Friday's USDA crop report," he says.
No one expects any surprises Friday, he says. "But, 'shorts' have the profit. Therefore, the risk and trade fear before fact that there could be a bullish surprise. This fear is carried over from the bullish drought reports this summer."
At the open:
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 1 3/4 cents lower at $7.39. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 13 cents lower at $15.02. Dec. wheat futures are trading 7 cents higher at $8.84 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.06 lower at $48.62. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $5.80 per short ton lower at $466.90.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.59 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 237 points lower.
--For awhile now, there has been a lot of discussion about the large amount of investment money that is on the 'sidelines'. One analyst says Wednesday that now that the election is over watch for fund money to come back into the farm markets. One hint; Watch the open interest levels in corn, soybeans and wheat.
It is time to get back to managing risk and shaping your future yourself. Like I said yesterday, it appears a wheat and soybean rally could be on the horizon. But first things first, Friday's USDA Reports. What will it say?
What say you?
Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 8-10 cents lower, and wheat 2-3 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.
Crude Oil=$0.79per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening lower, following the relection of President Obama. The market is now focusing on the 'fiscal-cliff' issues that involve $600 billion of tax increases and spending cuts on the horizon. It's believed these issues could send the U.S. back into a recession.
More in a minute,
11-07-2012 08:01 AM
11-07-2012 10:15 AM - edited 11-07-2012 10:18 AM
Don't worry, corn is done going a lot lower until the HWR crop gets mositure and actually some of the crop needs moisture to germinate. FWIW, Wheat planted(germinated) in Dec and Jan doesn't do well.
The boys relying on wheat to bail them out for feed grains next summer may be in for a big surprise. I wouldn't hedge any new crop corn until HWR gets a good rain, because there are too many issues out there right now.
Some Cow calf operations in the south that don't have wheat pasture or didn't raise much hay the last 2 summers are borderline breakeven even at these high stocker prices.
11-07-2012 11:05 AM
Just to back up your argument. It looks like the lack of soil moisture remains a concern for the U.S. wheat crop, according to the lates National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration maps:
The map shows the Plains states are well below normal precip levels for the month of November already.