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11-08-2012 06:36 AM - edited 11-08-2012 02:50 PM
Announcement: Join us this afternoon at 2:30 CT for the "live" CME Group Press Briefing to discuss Friday's USDA Report. A panel of analysts will breakdown their expectations for tomorrow's reports. You can watch the event 'live' here in Marketing Talk. Watch for a thread started later this morning, right here in Marketing Talk.
Also, are you wondering what the floods in Argentina are doing to the corn and soybean crops? You are?
At the close:
The Dec. futures corn contract closed 3 cents lower at $7.41. Jan. soybean futures contract settled 11 cents lower at $14.95. March wheat futures finished 8 cents higher at $9.02 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract settled $0.14 higher at $49.14. The Dec. soymeal futures contract finished $5.80 per short ton lower at $459.20.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.40 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 84 points lower.
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 3/4 of a cent lower at $7.43. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 5 1/4 cents lower at $15.01. March wheat futures are trading 4 1/2 cents higher at $9.12 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.09 higher at $48.71. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $4.00 per short ton lower at $465.50.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.80 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 29 points lower.
Alan Brugler, President of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC, says soymeal prices are weak, dragging down soy product value.
"This is also keeping crushers less aggressive on buying beans," Brugler says. CONAB, Brazil's crop supply agency, is using a higher corn production estimate for Brazil than the one USDA put out in October. So, global corn stocks might not drop on Friday's report. On the other hand, the EU issued the most corn export licenses since June 19 in this week's session," he says.
Wheat is higher on ideas that USDA will trim world ending stocks again tomorrow, Brugler says. "Wheat is also getting support from potential upside breakout signals on some of the charts."
Corn and wheat are up slightly, soybeans are lower Thursday. Weak export sales are hurting the soybean market, while fresh demand and world crop-weather problems barely keep the grains in the positive area. Overall, the outside markets and the USDA Reports Friday are keeping a lid on gains.
At the open:
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 1 cents lower at $7.42. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 5 cents lower at $15.01. Jan. wheat futures are trading 1/4 of a cent lower at $9.07 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.07 lower at $49.07. The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $2.40 per short ton lower at $462.60.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.74 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 14 points lower.
--USDA announces Thursday that 152,400 mt of U.S. corn has been sold to Japan for 2013-14 delivery.
--Brazil's CONAB crop supply company estimates that country's corn crop at 72.0 mmt, down from its previous estimate of 73.0 mmt. For soybeans, the crop estimate was raised from 82.0 mmt to 83.0 mmt.
--Russia's Ag Minister pegged that country's grain output at 72.0 mmt, down 25% from last year's output.
USDA released its Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday. Bean data seems bearish.
Corn= 209,400 mt vs. the trade's expectations of between 100,000-300,000 metric tons,
Soybeans= 191,900 mt vs. the trade's expectations of between 400,000-700,000 metric tons
Wheat= 220,900 mt compared to the trade's expectations of between 200,000-400,000 metric tons,
Soybean meal=194,600 mt vs. the trade's expectations of between 75,000-200,000 metric tons.
Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 4-6 cents higher, and wheat 2-3 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.80per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher, with investors still concerned about the looming U.S. 'fiscal cliff' and upcoming data. Some bargain buying could occur after yesterday's sharp drop. But, the market is now focusing on the 'fiscal-cliff' issues that involve $600 billion of tax increases and spending cuts on the horizon. It's believed these issues could send the U.S. back into a recession.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks are lower, while Europe's stocks are mixed.
More in a minute,
11-08-2012 09:02 AM
Good morning, Mike.
meal sales seem ok...meal drives beans, so maybe not as bearish here???
maybe corn drives us today?
saw the OI go up 4% in Wheat yest. per your comments.....
11-08-2012 11:21 AM
Traders and analysts alike are chatting about the data ahead. Here's how Kevin Penner, Ag Trader Talk Inc market analyst, sees tomorrow's USDA Report:
Acreage: USDA does not usually adjust acreage in this report
Yield: Corn was 122.0 bpa Last Month, average guess for tomorrow is nearly the same at 122.03. USDA has shown lower yields in Nov for past 6 years.
Beans were 37.8 bpa Last Month, average guess for tomorrow is 38.1 bpa. Average increase in bean yield on this report is 2% which would be 38.6 bpa.
Production: Corn was 10.706 Bbu Last Month, average guess for tomorrow is 10.647 Bbu. This year we have a range of guesses between 10.2 and 10.95, this is the largest range on record for the Nov report.
Bean production was 2.860 Bbu Last Month, average guess for tomorrow is 2.892. Again, range for this estimate is largest on record for this report.
Ending Stocks: Corn was at 619 Mbu Last Month, average guess for tomorrow is 628 Mbu.
Beans were at 130 Mbu Last Month, average guess for tomorrow is 131 Mbu.
"These two figures are the main reason for current high prices and directly reflect the effects of the record drought this year," Penner says.