10-10-2013 07:09 AM - edited 10-10-2013 02:45 PM
At the close:
The Dec. corn futures contract settled 5cents lower at $4.38. The Nov. soybean futures contract settled 1/4 of a cent higher at $12.88. Dec. wheat futures ended 5 cents lower at $6.85 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures closed $2.10 per short ton lower at $409.60. The Dec. soyoil futures settled $0.55 higher at $41.22.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.54 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 237 points higher.
Soybeans are up 13 cents, while corn trades slightly lower.
At the open:
The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 1 cent higher at $4.44. The Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 6 cents higher at $12.94. Dec. wheat futures are 4 cents higher at $6.94 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures is trading $1.60 per short ton higher at $413.30. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.24 higher at $40.92.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.06 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 147 points higher.
Jeff Coleman, The Trean Group analyst and CME Group floor trader, says that corn is still supported by China's purchase this week. For soybeans? "Buying has kicked in as the soybean market continues to break through the $13 level and test the 100 day moving average even though the market encounters farmer selling above $13."
What say you? Where do you see this market going without USDA Reports, higher than expected corn and soybean yields, a gov't shutdown, big money leaving commodities, ethanol stocks shrinking, South America farmers on their tractors planting an expected record soybean crop, and more corn being produced in the EU and in South America?
At 7:05 am:
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 6-8 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.46 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading higher, on hopes of a debt deal with Congressional leaders.
World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher, Europe stocks higher.
More in a minute,
10-10-2013 07:28 AM
Report on harvest from a friend of mine up in northern Iowa:
"Got running on beans last week and switched to corn last night. Was up on the bin getting transfer augers set up out of the drying bin. Bean yields were overall excellent, some of the best we ever had, but also had some poor spots. Extremely variable. Corn so far seems pretty good but too early to tell. Cal'd the yield monitor this afternoon and the spot we were in was averaging around 220dbpa at 19%. Too early to be sure, but looks to be 180-200avg over everything."
10-10-2013 07:39 AM - edited 10-10-2013 07:55 AM
Your note from that friend in northern Iowa reads awfully familiar to what our crop tour car of reporters found in central and western Illinois and eastern Iowa this week. In fact, one crop consultant says that the corn is so good that it's only taking 75,000 kernels to make a bushel vs. the regular 85-90,000.
Can you imagine what the USDA might do to these yields, once they hear of all these private estimates and actual yield reports are indicating? Oh yeah, there is no USDA Report tomorrow!
10-10-2013 09:28 AM
On the way from Des Moines to Maxwell, Iowa, yesterday I did not see many people working in the fields. One of the farms that I visited was harvesting just under 23% of the total area. Their planting was delayed a month, but productivity was better than expected: 180 bushels/ac for corn (average).
A farmer that I visited in Nevada, Iowa, was also have good producitivity (45 bushels/ac for soybeans and over 170 bushels/ac for corn). That's a regular productivity for the region, according to what they told me.
10-10-2013 09:40 AM - edited 10-10-2013 09:48 AM
I don't know about that 75,000 kernels for a bushel of corn...I'm not saying its not possible, but I'd like to see the kernels...
we are going to have average corn yields around SE NE, maybe a little above if you listen to the stories,
Beans are going to be average as well.
When I looked at the multi year chart on corn I think corn hit the uptrend line around the $4.37 area and bounced from there. I hope that line holds because its in the $3's before there is anything else.
another thing on corn is the world got use to feeding wheat, wheat never works as good as corn for some reason, so I think users are going to try and rebuild their corn stocks at these $4 levels. China included perhaps.
I think Beans are different then corn. China needs beans and they'll buy when the need them no matter what. its 4 months before we get beans out of South America.
Right now both corn and beans are having a dead cat bounce, they go and retest those lows I imagine then rally off of that. or at least on corn rally off of that long term line.
Just what I'm thinking.
10-10-2013 10:11 AM
Maxwell, IA? Wow. You were close! I know a lot of the farmers in Maxwell. I am from Collins, the next town east. I haven't tried any corn, yet-but our beans are disappointing. I hear rumblings that the corn could be halfway decent. None of the 250+ yields some growers out east are talking about, but good enough to keep us afloat for another year.
10-10-2013 11:00 AM
Finished beans yesterday NE of Mankato, MN. Averaged out to 42 bu/acre.
Last year average was 49+ and this is on ground that in a good year will be mid 60's.
Planted last week of May with only 0.6" of rain from last week in July to second week of September.
Must of been those heavy dews that saved it from being worse.
10-10-2013 11:02 AM
I am surprised that China and Japan aren't buying more grain with US Dollars-in fear that the Dollars won't be worth much as our government behaves like a bunch of 2 year olds. They are holding a lot of our Dollars that could be traded for something useful-like food.