Marketing

[marketeye]

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At 8:20am:

Corn market surges 4% higher on USDA Reports. On the Globex, corn is up 30 cents.

Mike

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At 7:30am:

USDA SAYS:

Corn=1.706 billion, with a yield unchanged at 122 bu./acre

Soybeans=2.86 billion bushels, with a yield estimate of 37.8 bu./acre.

What do you think? Bullish, bearish or neutral?

TRADE REACTION:

--One analyst says, "The market is trading the ending stocks now as harvest and production is largely know. We're in a demand-driven market now and with ending stocks coming in under pre-report estimates, while production came in over pre-report estimates followed by a sharp rally in corn and beans. It suggests the market mindset is moving towards price rationing and higher prices."

--A broad trading range is ahead, according to one analyst/broker. See full story here.

--The USDA made no significant cuts in domestic demand for beans and corn at all, which is bullish, analysts say.

--One analyst says the report was not real bullish on its face, but the market is reacting that way.
"The numbers on the headlines are really not so bullish compared to expectations, but a very strong reaction anyway.  I think part of it is 'sell the rumor and buy the fact'.  Part of it for corn must be area and yield, too.  Yield cut slightly in the report and area harvested is up, which I am not sure is being believed real well," he says.

Mike

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At 6:30am:

Early calls:  Subject to the USDA's October Crop Production and Supply/Demand Reports this morning. Watch for trade reaction right here at 7:30am. Overnight, corn is trading 3/4 of a cent lower, soybeans 18 cents higher, and wheat 5 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mixed.
Crude Oil=$0.78 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher ahead of U.S. Jobless Claims Report, trade deficit data, and import prices report. Spain's economic problems are being placed aside.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks are lower, while Europe's stocks are higher.

More in a minute,

Mike

[marketeye]

It's Happening Today:

There is still time to join us in Clear Lake, Iowa, later today for our Marketing Meet-up.

WHAT: Agriculture.com Marketing Talk Meet-up

WHEN: 3 p.m. - 6 p.m, Thursday, October 11th, 2012

WHERE: BEST WESTERN Holiday Lodge
2023 7th Avenue N
Clear Lake, Iowa, 50428-2103
Phone: 641/357-5253     
 
http://book.bestwestern.com/bestwestern/US/IA/Clear-Lake-hotels/BEST-WESTERN-Holiday-Lodge/Hotel-Ove...

Schedule:

2:30-3:00:  Sign-in & refreshments

3:00-3:30: Introductions by Marketeye and presentation by Al Kluis, marketing advisor

3:30-4:15: Presentation by Brazilian group

4:15-5:00: Roundtable discussion

5:00-6:00: Happy hour

See you there,

Mike

[jrsiajdranch]

Planning on being there today. If you still allow livestock guys in the room!

[marketeye]

Certainly. Livestock has a spot at the head table.

Mike

[roarintiger1]

I think that your happy hour is going to start early.

[Farmerjoe79]

9 dollar corn is going to have to come or we will run out of corn next august. But with this drought we are still in maybe we will have some corn by then.

[highyields]

I still doubt the soybeans are that high.  If they don't have that many beans we are not going to have enough beans to get through till the south american crop comes along.   whatever.   Maybe there was places in the country that got rain in July but in order to have really good beans you need a rain when they are blooming or they abort to many blooms.  

Did anyone else read monday that LA Nino is back in force again. 

Could be interesting if South America has another hicup in production this year.