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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,054
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk October 11

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The Dec. corn futures contract settled 5 cents lower at $4.33. The Nov. soybean futures contract closed 21 cents lower at $12.66. Dec. wheat futures closed 6 3/4 cents higher at $6.92 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures settled $6.20 per short ton lower at $403.40. The Dec. soyoil futures ended $0.94 lower at $40.28. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.64 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 71 points higher.

 

Tm Hannagan, Walsh Trading Inc., reminded folks in his weekly summary that 75% of the eastern Corn Belt corn could be harvested by Friday.

He also offered up this week's analysts crop estimates, despite a Friday Report from the USDA. He says, "The average guess for corn production was 13.836 billion bushels, down 7 million bushels from last month with yields pegged at 157.0 bushels per acre vs. 155.3 in September and harvested acres at 88.0 million acres down from 89.1.  Soybean production was estimated at 3.161 billion bushels vs. 3.149 with a yield of 41.6 bushels per acre up from 41.2 while harvested acres were estimated 75.9 million acres vs. 76.3.  Thanks  to  the quarterly stocks report increase, ending stocks look to come in higher.  Ending stocks for corn in the new marketing year were estimated at 1.936 billion bushels up from 1.855  and soybeans 175 million bushels  vs. 150.  Only wheat is expected to come in lower at 544 million bushels vs. 561.  With no report confirmation we might suggest looking at the ending stocks estimate for insight into what traders are thinking."

 

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 4 cents lower at $4.34. The Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 18 cents lower at $12.70. Dec. wheat futures are 7 cents higher at $6.92 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures is trading $6.00 per short ton lower at $403.00. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.70 lower at $40.52


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.01 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 83 points higher.

 

Mike North, Senior Risk Advisor for First Capital Ag, says that in the void of news created by the gov’t shutdown, markets are trading two things: combine reports and charts.  
"Combine reports continue to reveal, even in the areas thought to be traumatic, better to much better yields than were expected.  This will go a long way towards justifying the higher migration of private analyst yields in recent days," North says.  
North adds, "Do not be surprised by coming analysis of 160 yields.  Big crops get bigger and this year appears to fall into this category."
In conjunction with this news, the rumor of a potential scale back of the Renewable Fuel Standard in coming years has the market on the defensive, he says.  
"We will see how the EPA weighs in on this upon their return to work.  Charts have also broken down as corn made new lows, violating recent support near $4.40, North says.  
"Soybeans have similarly turned lower with the Sept 30/Oct 1 low as the target.  Even without the October report release, the market appears to be developing its own balance sheet…and it isn’t friendly," North says.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 5 cents lower at $4.33. The Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 8 cents lower at $12.79. Dec. wheat futures are 3 cents higher at $6.88 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures is trading $2.60 per short ton lower at $407.00. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.48 lower at $40.74. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.23 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 21 points lower.

 

Mike

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Senior Contributor
clayton58
Posts: 310
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: Floor Talk October 11

Since the gov. could not drive the market lower with the Oct. report, due to the "shutdown", they had to leak the rumor of EPA lowering ethanol to do it???  Or is that tinfoil hat thinking??  Just asking.

Veteran Contributor
docharing
Posts: 135
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
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Re: Floor Talk October 11

I will be the first to admit our soybean yields have been less than expected. LESS than expected, due to 21/31 days of rain in July. In August the beans looked like they came out of it, but now at harvest you can see the excess moisture damage. Central Ohio

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,054
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk October 11

docharing,

 

It sounds like you better come to our Marketing Academy. It can help you find a way to get more for those fewer soybeans. What do you say? If I can get you to sign-up for all of the right reasons, I think a lot of other folks will sign-up too. Haven't you always wanted to be a trailblazer? What do you say?

 

Here is how you sign-up:  The Successful Farming Marketing Academy

 

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
IllinoisSteve
Posts: 164
Registered: ‎04-13-2013
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Re: Floor Talk October 11

Mike, I question how big of a deal the ethanol thing really is. I don't think we ever got close to using the 18 million gallon mandate so I'm thinking in the end it won't really change anything. The big story is the size of this crop. We will be at or above 14 billion bu. I know it is hard to come to grips with especially if you have a poor crop. Unfortunately folks like MT and his followers are standing way too close to a certain river in Egypt.
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,054
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk October 11

Luis, the southern Brazil freelance writer is on the move. He made his way to the floor of the Board of Trade.

 

1011131244b.jpg

 

He's working hard, trying to dig up all of the marketing secrets that he can find.

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 3,736
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
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Re: Floor Talk October 11

Looks like OptionEye has his back.

Contributor
4KSU
Posts: 18
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk October 11

 
Contributor
4KSU
Posts: 18
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk October 11

The real question to be answered at this point is how low can we go in the corn? Assuming a 158-160 avg and ending stocks north of 2 bil where will the market find legs again. I feel like a harvest low hits when we get to 75-80% of acres harvested. Any guesses on where you think Dec corn will be trading by then?
Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,507
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk October 11

Mike,   Eastern corn belt 75% harvested?     No way.........We don't have any corn in piles yet......:smileywink:

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"