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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,186
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk October 19

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The Dec. futures corn contract closed 3/4 of a cent higher at $7.61. Nov. soybean futures contract settled 11 cents lower at $15.34. Dec. wheat futures settled 4 cents higher at $8.72 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract ended $0.72 lower at $51.58. The Dec. soymeal futures contract ended $0.50 per short ton higher at $463.80.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.01 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 197 points lower.

 

Mike

----------

Informa, the private analyst firm, releases 2013 U.S. Acreage Estimates:

 

Corn=97.5 million, nearly equal to its previous estimate.

Soybeans=80.0 million, up 115,000 from its previous estimate.

All-Wheat=56.8 million, down from its previous estimate.

 

What say you? Too high, too low on corn. Or, do you even care at this point?

 

Mike

--------

At mid-session:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 3 cents higher at $7.63. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 8 cents lower at $15.37. Dec. wheat futures are trading 10 cents higher at $8.79 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.59 lower at $51.71. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $1.00 per short ton higher at $464.30.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.15 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 158 points lower.

 

Mike

-------

At 10:30am:

While corn and wheat trade higher, soybeans have fallen into negative territory.

 

Mike

-----

At the open:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 5 cents higher at $7.65. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 6 cents higher at $15.51. Dec. wheat futures are trading 12 cents higher at $8.81 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.11 lower at $52.19. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $3.90 per short ton higher at $467.20.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.71 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 103 points lower.

 

Mike

----------

At 8am:

A lot of news Friday:

--USDA announces Friday that 230,000 mt of U.S. wheat was sold to an 'unknown' buyer.

--Ukraine is expected to ban grain exports in mid-November, at least one analyst firm is reporting Friday.

--Ukraine's grain harvest yields, as of Oct. 18 are averaging 2.94 tons per hectare vs. 3.39 tons/hect. a year ago.

In September, the country's ag leaders estimated this year's grain crop at 46.0 million tons.

--Late today, Informa is expected to release 2013/14 U.S. Acreage Estimates. What's your guess?

 

 

Mike

----------

At 6:45m:

---Taiwan seeks 104,000 tons of U.S. wheat for Oct. tender Friday.

--S.Korea buys 63,000 mt of optional-origin corn.

--Brazil will raise a record-large corn crop in 2012-13, with a USDA attache estimating an outp[ut of 74.0 mmt.

--Reuters news service is reporting that the CME Group is considering shortening the trading hours. The floor and electronic trading would close at 1:15pm instead of 2pm Central time. No change until after Jan. 1, if any.

 


Mike

---------

At 6:30am:

Early calls:  Corn 6-8 cents higher, soybeans 8-10 cents higher, and wheat 12-14 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.04 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening mixed, as GE reports higher earnings. ADM announces it will buy into GrainCorp., the Australian grain handler, to better serve Asian countries.

World=Lower.

 


More in a minute,

 

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,593
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk October 19

[ Edited ]

What?  Another USDA over zealous prediction on Brazil production?.....................They are slow learners.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 792
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk October 19 Informa Numbers

Well I keep hearing the 100 million mark on corn acres next year.  I suppose will get close to that.   beans will be around 76 million.

 

We will be swimming in this corn next year at this time if we do get 100 million planted and we do get average weather,

Once again the talk about "marginal acres" comes up.   I'm pretty sure central Illinois is probably a very high percentage of tillable acres right now.   All extra acres will come from the fringe area, and maybe corn and corn.    I see pasture ground being tore up south of me this spring that should never have been farmed.  

 

Just a question to the farmers out there:  My corn on corn wasn't worth a darn this year, My question would be will the farmers take the chance with corn on corn again in 2013?   If farmers choose not to plant corn on corn that would through a wrench in this acreage number.   

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,041
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk October 19

"--Late today, Informa is expected to release 2013/14 U.S. Acreage Estimates. What's your guess?"

 

What a crap shoot.  "There should be a law against this" Market manipulation at it's finest. They need a real job.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,186
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk October 19 Informa Numbers

highyields,

 

I think everyone will be surprised at the acreage for next year. I hear a lot of talk about more corn going to soybeans, because of a lot of troubled corn-on-corn yields. You might say, but Mike, South America is going to grow a record-large soybean crop. Why would the U.S. farmer add to that? Good question. But, there is plenty of time for a weather event backing up the South America bean crop.

 

What say you, more beans?

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
Blacksandfarmer
Posts: 897
Registered: ‎08-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk October 19

I agree hobby. This market still needs to do some work to achieve 100 million acres of corn next year..... Or even 96 million acres of corn for that matter.

Frequent Contributor
tOTALED
Posts: 44
Registered: ‎07-11-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk October 19

Lots of Wheat

Veteran Advisor
Nebrfarmr
Posts: 6,808
Registered: ‎10-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk October 19

Any ideas on how much corn was blown down in the latest storm, and how that might affect markets?

Beans most, if not all out already, but a lot of pivot circles of corn, suffered some real wind damage (I posted some pics in the thread 'going down' in Crop talk if you want to see what it looks like here.  Neighbors say, the fields I took pictures of, are far from the worst in the neighborhood, but I have yet to see the worst, personally).

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,041
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk October 19

[ Edited ]

Lots of Wheat

 

 

WRONG

 

They had a brown out in wheat country yesterday. 1/2 mile visibilities because of dust bowl conditions from west Texas clear to Canada. One town in SW ND burned to the ground. Many range type fires in the west yesterday. No rain in sight.

 

Several hiways closed due to blowing dirt/dust, including I80 in western Neb.

 

It anin't over out there yet.

 

Jeff what do you hear from the Hoxie area?

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Senior Contributor
lsc76cat
Posts: 240
Registered: ‎08-31-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk October 19

We adjusted our rotation a little for 2012 to keep corn off some hills because of the dry weather pattern that seemed to be developing.  As it turned out that guess paid off.  Haven't seen enough indication yet that things have changed.  No rain to recharge subsoil moisture will make it tough to commit to increasing corn acres.  Was raining lightly in SCMN yesterday and drove by a farmer discing corn ground.  He was kicking up alot of dust.

"Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; Genius will not; Education will not. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan "Press On" has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race." Calvin Coolidge