10-02-2012 06:55 AM - edited 10-02-2012 03:58 PM
At the close:
The Dec. futures corn contract settled 1 1/4 cents higher at $7.58 1/4. Nov. soybean futures contract finished 29 3/4 cents lower at $15.30. Dec. wheat futures settled 12 cents lower at $8.71 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract finished $0.50 lower at $50.69. The Dec. soymeal futures contract finished $11.60 per short ton lower at $462.70.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.77 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 32 points lower.
INTL FC Stone Updated U.S. Crop Estimates Tuesday:
Corn=10.82 billion bushels, with a yield of 123.9 bu./acre.
Soybeans=2.849 billion bushels, with an average yield of 38.2 bu./acre.
In September, the USDA put the U.S. corn crop at 10.727 billion bushels, using a 122.8 bushel an acre yield, and soybean output at 2.634 billion, using a 35.3 bushel an acre yield.
What do you think? Are those estimates about what you thought? Or, are they too high or too low?
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 2 3/4 cents lower at $7.54. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 21 3/4 cents lower at $15.38. Dec. wheat futures are trading 14 3/4 cents lower at $8.69 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.45 lower at $50.74. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $7.80 per short ton lower at $466.70.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.08 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 59 points lower.
One analyst says, "The market is reacting to better harvest pace, and for soybeans better yields.
"I think funds are selling too, the charts are pretty ugly and they are probably trying to flip around a bit. No real demand news out there. That is not helping the beans," he says.
FC Stone will release U.S. 2012 crop estimates today, with most expecting the firm to estimate a 3 to 4 bushel increase in soybeans and a decrease in corn yields, he says.
"I'm trying to talk to guys about call spreads in beans and corn, I might be a bit early but it has been a pretty big break already! Especially in soybeans and that is where I am trying the spreads," he says. No doubt about it, we need some demand to spark things. But, the harvest pressure should start to pass in a week or two."
At the open:
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 2 cents lower at $7.54. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 25 cents lower at $15.35. Dec. wheat futures are trading 8 cents lower at $8.74 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.51 lower at $50.68. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $7.50 per short ton lower at $467.00.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.02 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 13 points lower.
--Taiwan seeks 180,000 mt of Brazilian and U.S. soybeans Tuesday.
--A number of private firms will be out, this week, with updated crop estimates. The trade expects bearish estimates, thus the fall in prices.
--In September, the U.S. exported a record 76.7 million bushels of soybeans, surpassing the previous record of 72.8 millionbushels in 2010. "The commercials will have to originate a record amount of US soy before January," Ag Resource told customers in a daily newsletter Tuesday.
Early calls: Corn 4-6 cents lower, soyheans 14-15 cents lower, and wheat 8-10 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.11 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher, as Spain has higher hopes of a financial bailout.
More in a minute,
10-02-2012 08:46 AM
Brazil , keep an eye... Center-west Brazil ´s Matto Groso has been pretty dry since planting began 20-25 days ago. Next chance for rain is Oct 15th. producers concerns are beggining to mount. There is still "some" hope , but time is running out and possible re-planting might occur. Rest of SA weather looks OK for now
10-02-2012 08:52 AM
--In September, the U.S. exported a record 76.7 million bushels of soybeans, surpassing the previous record of 72.8 millionbushels in 2010.
A statement worth repeating----------During a month of the highest prices in how many years????
This must be the most "hand to mouth" market on the board. ------------------ droughts don't go away fast.
Gio--------harvest will start trend. But this appears to be a "just in time" harvest on the export side. What do you think? you see it better than I.
10-02-2012 09:23 AM
corn seems stable..........ands should be...........we could see some bullish news in October.........
soya.......are digging.........I am not sure its smart they have fallen this far...........but whatever..........export sales are over 80% of projection and exports are near double this time last year..........but whatever........
anyone think this drought is busted???????????
going to cycle this thing lower and build demand.........I suppose it builds the case for some massive moves later on........
10-02-2012 09:46 AM - edited 10-02-2012 09:48 AM
Is anybody selling beans?
The reason for this ? is that yesterday afternoon late the local Gavilon Grain terminal sent me a text that read...
"due to lack of selling...starting Oct 2 our price later charges will be 15 cents til 12/31/12 then 3 cents/bu/mo."
Lack of farmer selling and record sales/exports... Hmmmmmmmmm Price going down like a rock.
Who cries UNCLE first? Prices never go up with the grain in farmers hands. Just ain't natural. Needs a genuine shortage or 75% in non farmers control, historically speaking.
Had a local small time farmer/custom operator here Sun Afternoon getting his combine repaired and he told me his own corn made 90 bpa and that he had just sold it on Fri's rally @ $7.45 local cash. Said that was the highest he had ever sold corn for and that it would never be that high again in his lifetime. I just listened and asked him if he was not planning on getting much older. (he had 3 teenagers with him).
10-02-2012 10:12 AM
Was 90 bpa also the lowest he has ever seen??
Bet he doesn't stop planting.
That is a bad bet to make---"would never be that high again in his lifetime"------ I-n-f-l-a-t-i-o-n-- cannot be ignored.
10-02-2012 10:16 AM
This is the most bizarre use of DP I've ever heard of (if this is a DP situation).
They take title AND charge you for it (can't be storage, they own it). They are worried, probably because they are selling beans and getting longer and longer on what they 'owe' farmers and are worried beans will shoot up in price.
Maybe I'm missing something. Maybe this is NOT DP beans? In which case stored beans are reducing turn over volume available?
Did Gavilon get bought by Merubeni?