10-23-2012 07:22 AM - edited 10-23-2012 02:20 PM
At the close:
The Dec. futures corn contract closed 5 cents lower at $7.56 1/4. Nov. soybean futures contract ended 6 3/4 cents higher at $15.53. Dec. wheat futures finished 9 1/2 cents lower at $8.68 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract finished $0.34 lower at $51.32. The Dec. soymeal futures contract settled $5.20 per short ton higher at $476.20.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.43 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 207 points lower.
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 8 3/4 cents lower at $7.52. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 5 cents lower at $15.41. Dec. wheat futures are trading 13 cents lower at $8.65 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.37 lower at $51.29. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $0.90 per short ton lower at $470.10.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.34 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 251 points lower.
One floor trader says the markets are in a range-bound trading area but trending lower.
"South America's weather is not threatening. South America's bean acres seem to be going up and not down, when you hear a new estimate come out. So, this is creating a bear market for soybeans," he says.
In the past month, the soybean futures market has dropped 5 1/2%. "We're more apt to break a dollar before we add a dollar. I think we'll reach $14.00 per bushel before we reach $16.00," he says.
For corn, South America's crop is still $30 per ton cheaper than the U.S. corn price. "We haven't had any significant business in corn exports for a long time. It's discouraging. And, here on the floor, today is the first day in two weeks that the corn trade volume is higher than soybean volume," he says.
With corn prices able to record a .30% of a percent higher range, in the past month, many ask what is keeping the market up? "No farmer-selling is what is price supportive. But, there certainly is no interest on the world market," he says.
One analyst says, "With corn and beans over 80% harvested leaving crop condition and weather no longer a pricing source, markets turn to outside market influence for daily direction. Large trend-following and index funds are selling energies, metals and stocks today. They're selling the board and grains are part of their trading portfolio. These outside markets are experiencing big downside pressure pulling grains along. December corn found support at its $6.50 support chart line and November beans at its $15.30 support and rallied off the low into mid-session. Traders remain slightly negative corn as demand is weak, but bullish beans as demand remains strong."
All markets are down double-digits. It seems the markets are falling faster than the leaves from the trees in my yard. The Stock market is down over 200 points. It's a rough day in the trading world.
At the open:
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 8 cents lower at $7.52. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 13 cents lower at $15.33. Dec. wheat futures are trading 13 cents lower at $8.65 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.66 lower at $51.00. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $4.40 per short ton lower at $466.60.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.43 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 235 points lower.
USDA announced Tuesday that 270,000 mt of non-U.S. origin corn was sold to Mexico for 2012-13.
---Ukraine's grain exports between July 1-Octo. 22 totaled 7.65 mmt, up 73% from a year ago, according to that country's Minister of agriculture. Ironically, some believe Ukraine's wheat and corn exports will halt in mid-Nov.
--U.S. ethanol output in 2012 is expected to drop to 855,000 from 907,000 mt a year ago, one analyst says.
Early calls: Corn 3-5 cents lower, soybeans 12-14 cents lower, and wheat 7-9 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.43 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening lower, as investors remain concerned about the U.S. economic outlook.
World=Asia stocks are mixed, while Europe's stocks are lower.
More in a minute,
10-23-2012 08:30 AM
Mike, With the Ukraine's announcement of an export ban on starting on a certain day, do you think that the countries they export to will buy everything they can up until that point? It sure looks like they are stimulating their grain demand. It seems to me that it is like the grocery store shelves before a big predicted storm..People rush in and buy everything up out of fear......
10-23-2012 09:20 AM
That's a heck of a good question, tiger. So, how will they behave, selling-wise, ahead of that date? Actually, doesn't it make more sense to set an amount threshold rather than a hard, fast date? Seems like setting a date leaves the amount for sales a little up-in-the-air, doesn't it?
10-23-2012 09:40 AM
The idea of Ukraine banning exports has been in the market for awhile. So, I imagine you have seen their regular customers stocking up as time as gone on. Where their regular customers will turn to for new supplies will be the thing to watch. The America's will be a big benificiary of Ukraine and possiblly Russia's halt in grain exports.
10-23-2012 10:20 AM
So, does this have folks feeling bullish up on the Palouse?
10-23-2012 10:35 AM
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is saying to close friends that he will not return for another term, according to the Chicago Tribune Tuesday. The Trib says Glenn Hubbard, President George W. Bush's Council of Economic Adviser head, is a likely choice, if Romney wins the election.
Now, to turn the discussion towards the farm markets, it's worth asking if this means the end of lower interest rates? Some ag economists have been warning farmers for years now about "D Day", the return of higher interest rates.
What say you? With Big Ben out, does it make you want to open up an interest rate savings account, saving for the future of higher loan rates?
Just a thought,
10-23-2012 10:55 AM
IF Romney were to get election he will see the same S@#$ as the other guys...... Raise interest rates now and the wheels come off this economy..... They will continue to provide liquidity as there are no other choices.......
It is a lot different when one has to govern as oppose to just political rhetoric...... p-oed
10-23-2012 11:02 AM
The market set up is bullish. If S America falters it hits the fan. There is no more room for production issues and yet we have no control over it. This is what I call 'Normal Production Variation'. Flip a coin. It's probability now and that's all. We are in the danger zone.