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10-27-2011 06:29 AM - edited 10-27-2011 03:48 PM
After the close:
What happened on the close?
One trader says, "Just after 11 Chicago time. Hard to say exactly what time it was, but an article talking about the Mexican corn crop being down 4.0 mmt, started the rally. Also, some Chinese rumors, tail wagging dog. Obviously the European news got things started this am. Strange week though, busines on the floor( options) has been extremely light. We have the rolls starting next week. To me I think it is the calm before the storm. Still hearing very poor yields for corn. Stuff planted after may 10, beans more varied. Think we can see a sub 145 yield in nov. Beans 40-41."
At the close:
The Dec. corn futures settled 14 1/4 cents higher at $6.51 1/2. The Jan. soybean contract finished 24 1/2 cents higher at $12.44. The Dec. wheat futures closed 24 1/2 cents higher at $6.44. The Dec. soymeal futures settled $6.50 per short ton higher at $323.50. The Dec. soyoil futures ended $1.22 higher at $52.11.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $3.80 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 360 points.
Thank you EU, I guess. Wow! What a finish!
The Dec. corn futures are trading 1 1/2 cents higher at $6.38 3/4. The Jan. soybean contract is trading 13 1/4 cents higher at $12.33. The Dec. wheat futures trading 6 1/2 cents higher at $6.26. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $2.30 per short ton higher at $319.30. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.88 higher at $57.77.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $3.00 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 266 points.
One analyst says, "It's the fourth consecutive day where funds, fat with profits, took them on the opening high range. They are doing this because this is the last full week of the month. Helping them pull profits were a bearish weekly export sales report ,as a result of China backing off on purchases after last week's rally."
At the open:
The Dec. corn futures opened 11 cents higher at $6.48 1/4. The Jan. soybean contract opened 23 1/2 cents higher at $12.43. The Dec. wheat futures opened 13 3/4 cents higher at $6.33 3/4. The Dec. soymeal futures opened $4.70 per short ton higher at $321.70. The Dec. soyoil futures opened $0.95 higher at $51.85.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $3.45 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 207 points.
The markets are rallying off of the eurozone deal.
It looks like the USDA Weekly Export Sales Report is bearish for the grain and soybean markets.
Corn=361,300 mt vs. the trade's expectation for 800,000 metric tons (mt).
Soybeans= 254,600 mt vs. the expected 800,000 mt.
Wheat=316,800 mt vs. the trade's expectation of 400,000 mt.
Soymeal=74,100 mt vs. the expectation of 150,000 mt.
It looks like Europe's news will have to carry the day. Will it be able to? It certainly has helped the dollar weaken. Maybe that's enough, what do you think?
Tom White, FutureRoad.net and corn pit trader on the floor of the CME Group says technically the corn market may have a tough time going lower. "We would minimally have to trade below the weekly corn low to have a chance to continue lower into the end of the week."
Early calls: Corn 12-14 cents higher, soybeans 22-24 cents higher, and wheat 13-15 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading sharply higher.
Crude Oil=$2.04 higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading higher off of the European debt crisis news.
World Markets=Higher due to the European Union countries coming out of a meeting in Brussels with a plan to help solve the financial debacle in that continenent. Essentially, the plan involves a 50% writedown on Greece's debt. It raises the rescue fund's capacity to $1.4 trillion. A lot of financial experts around the world want more details on the plan.
More in a minute,
10-27-2011 07:37 AM
Mike, we may still bounce around alittle here as things are pretty elevated, but I would say the fuse is getting ready to be lit...........especially since basis is talking to us and our wiggle room is gone after last year........
10-27-2011 08:01 AM - edited 10-27-2011 08:09 AM
Is the initial announcement out of Europe enough to support a grain rally? Or, do you think the market digests this news fairly quickly, because further details are desired, and pulls back gains off of the open?
Also, since September, between $11-$12 billion has left the commodities markets, according to reported estimations. As we head to the start of 2012, will this money be coming back in now that the European financial crisis is being handled? That's a lot of money to re-enter the market, don't ya know!
10-27-2011 08:02 AM - edited 10-27-2011 08:07 AM
With many analysts expecting lower corn and soybean yield estimates in the November Crop Report, I wonder if the harvest affect lasts longer this year? What say you sw363535?
10-27-2011 08:13 AM
i think the market has been digesting news faster than it hits the wires...........hence the volitility..........
personally I think grains are lost right now..........the EU was something to follow..........now that it might be out of the way it will look for something else to do........likely wait for firm harvest numbers.........then digest demand..........then digest acreage.........then digest risk of carryout.........
JMOH........but the USDA has done a great job of keeping one step ahead of this the last 6-9 months.........to keep the confusion there and working off the mental notes that we did not run out of grain last summer (close, with deficient areas bidding hard, but still found some)..........I think most agree we are walking along an inventory ledge, and no one knows how close we are to the edge of inventory falling off..........but what we do know is we walked it last year with a strong tail wind and a bottle of booze in the dark........and we didn't fall off, at least we don't think we did........interesting part is we could have, but with just in time inventory we won't know till we hit the ground...........it could hurt.........
10-27-2011 08:14 AM
Not to mention the late harvest. We have less of our corn picked, and at a higher moisture level, than I can remember. Even a couple years ago, when we started out way wet, it dried down quicker than it has this year.
With a lot of goosenecked, greensnapped, leaned, and downed corn, the window for getting it picked without big field losses is closing.
On the one hand, we will have a longer harvest, due to high corn moisture, muddy fields, etc, but with that comes chances for more field losses (I already talked to one guy who picked his 'down' field, and left 30 BU behind, and he had it picked almost 2 weeks ago), I can see things going either way.
10-27-2011 03:13 PM
Diseaster down here this year is tainting my view slightly. But I want to support Mizzou's entry today with this---
Harvest nearly over here.
2010 Fall I was on a Sprayer in the okla panhandle ---from one position I could see 1.8-2m bu of wheat ( equal # of milo & corn each) stored on the ground and at least 8m of elevator & feedlot storage full----12 mile visibility. Within 50 miles are enough cattle on feed to consume that total in 3 months. The irrigated acre production in 80 mile radius is big. We have piled grain on the ground with full elevators for at least 15 years. In 08 &09 piles of fall crops existed through west & central kansas to southern nebr as well--even wheat. Saw nothing better in se ks.
2011 Fall siting on Sprayer in same spot.------ no piles at elevators & elevator storage less than half full. 2011 --very little wheat--70% down, Irrig crop 30-40% low, dry land 90%+ loss on ks side, worse south----to the gulf.
until I can here of 200+m acres somewhere coming in 30%+ over normal yields, or see a few piles of grain, somewhere--------I wonder where the average yield really is.
This picture is stuck in my mind.