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10-03-2012 06:58 AM - edited 10-03-2012 02:21 PM
REMINDER: Don't forget to sign-up for the October 11, 2012, Marketing Meet-up.
At the close:
The Dec. futures corn contract closed 1 3/4 cents lower at $7.56. Nov. soybean futures contract ended 1 cent higher at $15.31. Dec. wheat futures settled 1 cent higher at $8.73 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.03 higher at $50.72. The Dec. soymeal futures contract settled $2.10 per short ton higher at $465.00.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $3.48 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 6 points lower.
Tim Hannagan, Alpari LLC (U.S.) senior grain analyst, says a short-covering rally has hit the soybean market.
"After beans made new two-month lows, with November beans hitting $15.04, we saw a short-covering rally back to $15.33. Beans have slid 90 cents, since Friday, and many traders are now covering ahead of the Thursday weekly export sales report due for release at 7:30 central time," Hannagan says.
The last several weekly demand reports have shown strong export sales. China is the big player, on the export market, he says.
Corn was holding a negative price action of 4 to 5 cents lower, but few sellers below $7.50, basis December futures, he says.
"As the mood is still bullish, after Friday's bullish quarterly stocks report. Overall, weakness prevails as harvest pressure continues this week."
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 5 cents lower at $7.54. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 6 cents lower at $15.24. Dec. wheat futures are trading 5 3/4 cents lower at $8.65 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.10 lower at $50.59. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $0.30 per short ton lower at $463.20.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.80 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 42 points higher.
--Egypt buys 240,000 mt of French and Argentinian wheat. They really are not interested in U.S. wheat, lately.
At the open:
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 5 cents lower at $7.54. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 15 cents lower at $15.15. Dec. wheat futures are trading 6 cents lower at $8.65 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.17 lower at $50.52. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $5.40 per short ton lower at $457.50.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.50 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 14 points higher.
Monsanto estimates the U.S. 2013 corn acreage at 96 million and soybeans at 76 million.
What do you think, too high, too low, or right on?
The markets are struggling to find positive territory due to newly released crop estimates. Yesterday, FC Stone put out bearish numbers. Friday, Informa, the private analyst firm, is expected to do the same. And, next week's USDA Report is seen as bearish.
INTL FC Stone Updated U.S. Crop Estimates Tuesday:
Corn=10.82 billion bushels, with a yield of 123.9 bu./acre.
Soybeans=2.849 billion bushels, with an average yield of 38.2 bu./acre.
In September, the USDA put the U.S. corn crop at 10.727 billion bushels, using a 122.8 bushel an acre yield, and soybean output at 2.634 billion, using a 35.3 bushel an acre yield.
What do you think? Are those estimates about what you thought? Or, are they too high or too low?
Early calls: Corn 4-6 cents lower, soyheans 8-10 cents lower, and wheat 6-8 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.53 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening flat ahead of U.S. labor and services reports. Meanwhile, China is reporting a declining service sector and weak manufacturing data for September.
More in a minute,
10-03-2012 07:31 AM - edited 10-03-2012 10:14 AM
I think everyone is over estimating the bean yield and corn yields.
I hate repeating myself but the industry is in denial over how bad this crop is.
I know that there is piles of corn out here in western corn belt but we have that every year we HAVE had that every year since 2004 not a big deal. The elevators got in a routine of storing the crop at harvest. Even the stuff that is sold to them by the farmer. The elevators are taking a huge risk here but they feel as though thats the only way to make more of a profit. Hold the grain. Look out when it that doesn't work.
acreage edit for 2013 there is no doubt in my mind that we will see big acres next year. can't be any different.
10-03-2012 08:07 AM
Mike, Im thinking the FC Stone numbers are right on the money. I took a vacation this summer and drove through the heart of the cornbelt on the way. My guess was 122 bu corn and 39 bu beans. If realized what would prices look like from what they are today? I've been bearish beans and bullish corn ever since my trip out west, especially if South America gets a good bean crop growing.
10-03-2012 08:11 AM
The FC Stone Corn figure of 10.82 billion bushel may be assuming a 90% harvested level on 97 million acres (up due to the use of the Farm Service Agency reported acres adjusted for a % of the total planted acres not reported to FSA) which if combined with their 123.9 yield equates to this level of production. I feel that this is too high of a harvested acres figure as in previous drought years a figure of 86-87% is normal. If you take off 3% of 97 million acres times their 123.9 yield you see a drop of 335 million bushel in production to a 10.485 billion figure. Taking this and the 9-28 stocks figure of 988 (down 193 million from the 9-12 report), you arrive at 435 million bushel of less supply during the 2012/2013 marketing year - still a bullish situation requiring added demand losses.
The Soybean yield will likely increase 1.2 bushel per acre (my guess) and they may raise planted acres 400,000 or more so based on FSA reported acres and when you combine this with the 169 million beginning 12/13 stocks figure, you would find 170 million of added supply available. The offset to this is that demand for 2012/2013 is already reduced by USDA to 2.670 billion bushel which is 487 million below the 11/12 demand level and 610 million below the 10./11 marketing year use shown by USDA. I feel that any increase in soybean supply will be offset a good deal by added demand thus leaving the 12/13 ending carryout at a low level. This means the market will be greatly influenced by the South American weather. Some recent posts on here and other sites show part of the Brazilian crop has some concerns. Those with more facts on this may want to chime in.
10-03-2012 08:39 AM
Soybean yields as informally reported by farmers in my area are for the most part, but not universally, good. I heard from an across the fence neighbor that he was getting 50's, 55's and a 63 bpa average. Good in any year. I just started and am not sure yet, but it looks like high 40's, maybe better. Some spots over 60. But, the weigh wagon guy just came from a field that was doing 35.
Corn is being reported all over the map.
10-03-2012 09:39 AM
better than expected.............HMMMMMMMMMM.........
its funny, they did a story last night with a farmer near Boone..................it was about how the yields are all over the board and some areas much better than expected..........then they said he would end up at around 140 for the year..........not saying thats right or wrong.........but Boone, IA is 200+ ground...........and 140?????? LMAO, better than expected............COMPARED TO WHAT...........
and the same could be said for soya...........while there are soya out there, I don't buy this better than expected crap........the bad areas are bad..............and the good areas range from just below average to better than average..........WHICH IS AVERAGE..........so just thinking about the last couple of years and average...........plus really bad get you what..........I think the USDA is close on soya number, said that since it was published...........
and then we have this acres deal which is a joke...........
its all about bushels in the end..........and we likely wont even get close till Jan..........if at all..........USDA figures we can stretch it out until new crop hits the market so who cares what the tally says...........thats a very dangerous game this year.........