10-30-2013 07:38 AM - edited 10-30-2013 01:55 PM
At the close:
The Dec. corn futures contract closed 1 3/4 cents lower at $4.30. The Nov. soybean futures contract settled 8 1/2 cents higher at $12.87. Dec. wheat futures settled 6 cents lower at $6.75 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures contract closed 1.00 per short ton higher at $411.80. The Dec. soyoil futures ended $0.65 higher at $41.62.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.41 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 82 points lower.
The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 2 cents lower at $4.30. The Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 7 cents higher at $12.86. Dec. wheat futures are 4 1/2 cents lower at $6.76 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $0.20 per short ton higher at $411.00. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.74 higher at $41.71.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.83 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 10 points lower.
One analyst says, "It's hard for corn to hold rallies, as trader mindset is to be short into the Nov. 8 crop report. But Thursday's export sales report should be bullish, giving us a higher close today on corn and beans."
The trade has been waiting for today's ethanol production numbers with bated breath. Here they are:
"According to EIA data, ethanol production averaged 911,000 barrels per day (b/d) — or 38.26 million gallons daily. That is up 14,000 b/d from the week before and a 17-month high. Production topped 900,000 b/d for the first time since mid-June 2012. The four-week average for ethanol production stood at 886,000 b/d for an annualized rate of 13.58 billion gallons.
Stocks of ethanol stood at 15.0 million barrels. That is a 3.5% decrease from last week and the lowest since EIA began reporting weekly data in June 2010.
Imports of ethanol were zero b/d for the fourth straight week," according to a Renewable Fuels Association press release.
At the open:
The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 1 cent higher at $4.33. The Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 9 cents higher at $12.88. Dec. wheat futures are 1 cent lower at $6.80 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $3.30 per short ton higher at $414.10. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.47 higher at $41.44.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.99 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 18 points higher.
The latest CFTC Report shows managed money funds dropping 14,345 net corn contracts, making them –75,917 contract net short overall. That is 20,000 shorter than estimated by the trade.
For soybeans, the managed money is getting shorter than expected, after a net 700,400 contract loss last week.
Managed money funds dropped a net 14,000 wheat contracts. That was more than the trade expected.
Maybe this sheds some light on whether the 'big' money is leaving ag commodities? What do you all think?
--Taiwan bought 60,000mt of U.S. corn Wednesday.
--Since Tuesday, S. Korean millers have purchased 500,000 tons of U.S. corn at a price of $250/ton vs. $400/ton a year ago. No wonder the world buyers are back shopping at the U.S. corn store. The price is half of what it was last year!
At 7:35 am:
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 7-9 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.98 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading higher, ahead of the Fed Reserve's policy decision on continued stimulus Wednesday.
World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher, Europe stocks higher.
More in a minute,
10-30-2013 09:42 AM
Managed money funds will move toward the most rewarding market. The stock market movement has been just great and the grains movement is dead. As a manager that likes his or her job, better keep up. Now there is a small group of money managers that will buck the trend.
10-30-2013 10:56 AM
I'm not so sure "big money" has left Ag. Have you totaled up the sales the last few months?
Maybe only the fog of distortion has diminished.
10-30-2013 01:59 PM
Sorry was working in the shop, Mike. Yes, I am concerned. I believe money movement has been effecting investments. Grains, metals, and now stocks. If money moves back to bonds, watch what happens to interest rates. Manage money has been out of the bond market, because the returns are so low. Over inflation in any market then sudden drops, caused by the money movements kills long time investments.
10-30-2013 03:48 PM
Jeff Coleman, The Trean Group analyst and CME Group floor trader, says it was an interesting day on the floor.
"It was a mixed but exciting day on the grain room floor as corn and soybean futures were lower after the upside explosion yesterday but wheat futures rebounded from early morning pressure to close sharply higher on the day. July corn futures sold off 9.75 cents today closing at $650 per bushel as profit taking from yesterday’s rally and farmers selling of stocks overnight put pressure on the old crop futures. July corn opened almost unchanged and traded 10 cents higher before crashing 21 cents during midday trading. December (new crop) corn futures open up 2 cents, traded as much as 11 cents higher before running out of steam to close 2.75 cents lower at $556.75 per bushel. There are still plenty of concerns of planting delays as traders are keeping a wary on weather forecasts for the next week. As we enter a weather market keep in mind that trader sentiment can sometimes change as quickly as the weather forecasts. Soybean futures also were lower on the day as July bean futures closed at $1399 per bushel, 9.75n cents lower on the day. We definitely saw some profit taking there and beans followed corn downward as the sell off began after the opening. November soybean futures were down 5.75 cents today closing at $1223.5 cents per bushel as we saw a rare tightening of the old crop/new crop bean spread. Wheat futures were the lone bull of the big three as July futures rallied 14.5 cents closing at $731 per bushel. July corn futures opened unchanged and then grinded 11.5 cents lower, a downward move that shocked many traders on the floor. Wheat futures exploded off of their lows to spike 31 cents higher putting July futures up 21.25 cents higher at one point today. Wet weather is expected across the plains to be followed by yet another cold snap, kind of a double whammy of weather conditions that has wheat traders jittery. Add to that yesterday’s crop progress report lowered the winter wheat condition to 35 percent for poor to very poor and good to excellent wheat slipping 33 percent," he says.
10-30-2013 04:01 PM - edited 10-30-2013 04:04 PM
Wow - basis must have exploded somewhere?!?!
$556/bu corn and $1223/bu beans!!
Am I reading that right - how far do I have to truck for those prices???
Now I see - 556 cents/bu - boy do I need glasses!!