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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,182
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk October 4

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The Dec. futures corn contract closed 1/4 of a cent higher at $7.57. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 19 3/4 cents higher at $15.51. Dec. wheat futures closed 3 3/4 cents lower at $8.69 1/4 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract finished $0.73 higher at $51.46. The Dec. soymeal futures contract closed $4.50 per short ton higher at $468.90.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $3.59 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 76 points higher.

 

Mike

-------------

At mid-session:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 3 3/4 cents higher at $7.60. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 31 cents higher at $15.62. Dec. wheat futures are trading 1 1/2 cents higher at $8.74 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.76 higher at $51.49. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $10.30 per short ton higher at $474.40.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.66 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 82 points higher.

 

 

Mike

-----------

At the open:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 9 cents higher at $7.65. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 32 cents higher at $15.64. Dec. wheat futures are trading 6 cents higher at $8.79 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.75 higher at $51.45. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $11.00 per short ton higher at $475.40.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.70 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 92 points higher.

 

Mike

--------------

At 7:35am:

USDA releases strong soybean Weekly Export Sales:

Corn=326,900 mt vs. the trade's expectations between 200,000-400,000 metric tons.

Soybeans=1.306 mmt vs. the trade's expectations of between 700,000-900,000 metric tons

Wheat=307,000 mt vs. the trade's expectations of between 400,000-600,000 metric tons.

Soybean meal=375,100 mt vs. the trade's expectations of between 150,000-300,000 metric tons.

 

Mike

----------

At 7:30am:

Early calls:  Corn 4-6 cents higher, soyheans 12-14 cents higher, and wheat 3-5 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.70 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher as investors await the U.S. Jobless Claims and Factory Orders reports. Also, the FOMC meeting minutes will be released today.

World=Higher.

 


More in a minute,

 

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,593
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk October 4

Any word on a China purchase?

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,182
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk October 4

Nothing yet. We might find out at 8am. What do you hear? I hear that yesterday's price was the most oversold soybeans had gotten since 2011.

 

Also, the Energy Information Agency released weekly ethanol production numbers late yesterday:

According to EIA data, ethanol production averaged 785,000 barrels per day (b/d) – or 32.97 million gallons daily.  That is down 24,000 b/d from the week before and the lowest rate since EIA began tracking weekly production in June 2010.  The 4-week average for ethanol production stood at 811,000 b/d for an annualized rate of 12.43 billion gallons.
Stocks of ethanol stood at 18.8 million barrels. That is a 2.6% decrease from last week. EIA reported no ethanol imports for the week.
Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,668
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk October 4

Mike,-------------------soybeans ??????????

 

Am I reading my reports right----------------- We have reached 80% of usda's annual export projections in the first 4 weeks of the crop year??????????

 

Surely that is a missprint.---------------  1055 mb annual estimate and we have exports at 862mb to date with 48 weeks to go in the crop year-----???????????

 

I know this is normally our time to sell but that seems extreme..

 

anybody expound so I can go on to a new thought??

sw
Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,332
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: Floor Talk October 4

On a sales basis yes.......and shipments are doing well too....

It could be know as the great soya robbery.........

Could likely see an increase in export projections....
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,034
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk October 4

If it was true the price would be going limit up for the next 10 days. Anybody on this forum selling off the combine or presold?

 

My text message from Gavilon Grain said "due to lack of selling" They were raising the storage fees on beans. Is this just a SW Iowa thing?  

 

Are many of the beans presold cheap like the $5 corn at planting?

 

I'm thinking there will be interesting times for someone with sales on the books and no beans in the bin.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,668
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk October 4

I am paying attention because of that conversation yesterday.  Referenced-------

 

http://community.agriculture.com/t5/Marketing/Floor-Talk-October-3/m-p/249045#M25195

 

 

Thought it sounded impossible at the time.

 

This is a pretty big user of bean meal.  ---------

sw
Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,668
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Hobby,    We were 15% priced at $12 range --------------...

Hobby, 

 

We were 15% priced at $12 range -------------- but that doesn't tell ya much.

 

I make a world of bad assumptions, but my latest is that a lot of beans got sold when they started to slide out of the of the $18 area and/or a lot of profit taking happened.   And at these price levels a $2 slide can be a temporary correction after a long bull run.

 

That said I am selling a little more today.----------------- reward the market-------I emphasize the word "little".

 

 

sw
Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,239
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk October 4

Actually, I think the sales numbers are old news. I saw a similar number several weeks ago. 

 

Have I told you that I believe the market is a lagging indicator? I'm guessing we will get yet another impressive demonstration this year of that fact.

 

And given Gavilon's strategy, I'd guess they are counting on it too. Remember, they are a huge Pacific Rim trader. I'm guessing they saw this coming some time ago. I won't deal with that company but, I have numerous options, even in a relatively small regional market.

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,034
Registered: ‎01-10-2012

Re: Floor Talk October 4

In reference to "70% of this bean crop may already be bought"

 

Brings up some really interesting things in my mind...

 

A) am I one of the few with beans NOT sold?  (nope)

 

B) just because some big shot trading co sold them does that mean I have to give them to him?  (nope)

 

C) @ $25 /bu we can start negotiations. (will accept more)

 

Beans processed into human food directly the sky is the limt on price. 3 to 4 bu feeds a person for a year. $60/bu for those bu is quite do able.

 

For beans used indirectly such as bean meal for livestock we are very close to the limit now.

 

 

 

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."