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03-28-2013 06:45 AM - edited 03-28-2013 02:30 PM
Note: Markets are closed Friday. They re-open Sunday night, at normal hours. Monday is regular trading hours.
At the close:
The May futures corn contract settled down the daily 'limit' of 40 cents at $6.95. This means the limits will be expanded 20 cents for Sunday night's e-trade and Monday's floor trading. The May soybean futures contract finished 49 cents lower at $14.04. May wheat futures ended 49 cents lower at $6.87 per bushel. The May soymeal futures settled $18.50 per short ton lower at $404.60. The May soyoil futures closed $0.71 lower at $50.11.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.50 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 48 points higher.
The May futures corn contract is trading down the daily 'limit' of 40 cents at $6.95.The May soybean futures contract is trading 44 cents lower at $14.09. May wheat futures are trading 49 cents lower at $6.87 per bushel. The May soymeal futures are trading $15.30 per short ton lower at $407.00. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.85 lower at $49.97.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.08 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 34 points higher.
Corn is still 'limit' down in the May, Dec. corn is down 25 cents. Soybeans were down 60¢ but have moved up to being 43 lower.
One analyst says, "The obvious is the increase in stocks for corn and wheat – number well above expectations. This is a potential game changer. Dec through Feb corn feed and residual usage was down 468 million bushels from year ago. Cash basis levels would suggest this number is not what the cash market is trading. Acreage neutral for corn and slightly friendly for soybeans."
One floor trader says, "Obviously very bearish corn. It suggests carryout is 925-950 million. Feed use down 250 last qtr. Soybean stocks were bearish, not as bad as corn. This suggests larger bean crop last yr. I just read the largest miss
by USDA on record."
Corn is locked limit down the 40¢ for May and July corn. Soybeans are down 28¢! Soybeans are tanking! Wheat is down 40¢. This Report is very bearish!! One analyst's reaction to this report was, "WHAT?"
The analysts say the biggest surprises in the report are the small soybean acreage and the bigger corn stocks.
Here's one analysts justifications for USDA's bigger-than-expected U.S. corn stocks figure:
--More wheat being fed
--And some of last year's aflatoxin corn is still in the bins. They are called blending bushels.
What say you? Do you believe it?
Corn=97.3 million vs. the trade estimate of 97.3 million
Soybeans=77.1 million vs. the trade estimate of 78.5 million
All Wheat= 56.4 million vs. the trade estimate of 56.4 million
Corn=5.40 billion vs. trade estimate of 5.030 billion bushels
Soybeans=1.00 billion vs. the trade's estimate of 947 million bushels
Wheat=1.23 billion bushels vs. the trade's estimate of 1.167 billion bushels
What say you about the numbers?
Soybeans have turned slightly higher, corn and wheat remain lower.
At the open:
At the open, the May futures corn contract is trading 3 cents lower at $7.32.The May soybean futures contract is trading 3 cents lower at $14.50. May wheat futures are trading 1 cents higher at $7.37 per bushel. The May soymeal futures are trading $0.30 per short ton lower at $432.80. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.15 lower at $50.67.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.06 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 29 points higher.
Jeff Coleman, Trean Group analyst sees a synthetic trading day ahead.
"Happy synthetic Friday everyone! Today is the last work day of the week, hence the moniker “synthetic Friday”. Once again the grains were in a holding pattern in overnight trade as the big three, corn, soybeans and wheat, were all hovering around unchanged. This morning wheat did make a push upwards trading 2-3 cents to the positive side. Volume was light as it seemed most traders straightened up their positions during yesterday’s trading session. That doesn’t mean there won’t be some good trading and price action before today’s 11:00 AM CST release of the USDA report and US supplies and planting intentions. We are hearing of corn shortages in China. In the equities markets, there are many economic numbers being released today so more attention will be paid on our own economy rather than what is happening in the Euro zone. If we get some good numbers the S & P’s may finally break through that pesky record high of 1565. Futures have traveled up there several times only to be sent packing downward. Is today the day? It should be interesting to watch."
USDA Weekly Export Sales Thursday were bullish for the soybean and wheat markets, and neutral for corn.
Corn= 275,500 metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of between 250-400,000 mts.
Soybeans= 674,100 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 350-500,000 mts.
Wheat= 828,600 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 350-550,000 mts.
Do you think the market is concerned about these numbers today? Or, will they quickly get discounted. What do you think?
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 1-2 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.16 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks were mixed and Europe's stocks were higher.
More in a minute,
03-28-2013 07:53 AM
If you missed the "Ask the Experts" webinar from Chicago, I attended and captured some comments on video.
Notes: The Reuters analyst noted that the current corn exports are just at 49% of the full year target. We must average approximately 465,000 mt/week over the rest of the year to hit the USDA target. We missed that already, with this morning's export sales at just 275,500 mt.
By comparison, U.S. soybean exports are 87% of the full year target. The U.S. must average 204,000 mt/week over the rest of the year of marketing year to hit target.
03-28-2013 08:00 AM
I read that we don't have enough soybeans to get us through to new crop.. nor at the levels we are using domestic supplies I don't think we have enough corn either. the article about soybeans was concerned because the United States isn't designed to be a grain importer, and wondered if the ports where even sit up for such a situation.
with the last cattle on fed report we have almost 2% more cattle in the pens then we did a year ago, You can't fatten a steer on distillers alone, and some of those cattle where 800 plus pounds they are getting corn now. with the ethanol plants starting to fire back up the corn price failed to do what it was suppose to do, It took out exports but do we have enough corn to keep things going? I've already heard that they will have to feed wheat this summer out in the feedlot country since there just isn't enough corn.
Most of the corn around here got hauled in last fall, and might already be in the pipeline. I don't think the numbers will ever show how tight this corn crop and bean crop is.
I do have some old crop left to sell. I'm going to ride this one out and see what happens.
03-28-2013 08:55 AM
please consider splitting out old vs. new export sales for the balance of this marketing year
I see the beans are reported as 674,000 mt which looks bullish.....until recognized that 90% of them are for new crop
whereas almost all of the corn sales were for old crop.....
with these steeply inverted markets, "old" and "new" might as well be completely different commodities!!
thanks for all you do
03-28-2013 09:29 AM - edited 03-28-2013 09:35 AM
Man . . . I missed the expert meeting in Chicago. I mean . . . how have I ever made it to age 70 and through 45 years of farming without their arm chair advice. Needless to say I never matriculated to Corn College so I have a lot of ignorance there. Someone should ship Ray a case of Bud Light, he used the word "Inverse" today, that is starting to scare me cause, he "does know jack" kinda nice he broke out that soybean export number. Now that was really interesting, since most of that number is for new crop beans.
I mean. Well . . . I do not think the report today is going to be bullish . . . why? Because I still have unsold soybeans in storage. That is a sure sign that the report will be bearish, and besides it appears to me, that Larry, Moe, and Curley at USDA will be in a quandary. They have to publish a bearish report so crop prices (what grain is left in this country) will remain low. They will accomplish this by jacking up phantom ending inventories, knock down livestock on feed numbers.
Then they have to paint a bullish portrait which means they will have to cut corn and soybean acres projected for this year in order to drive new crop prices higher from present levels, or no one will be planting corn for $5.00.
That will probably be the final straw it takes to push the rest of us who are still holding last years soybean inventory over the buffalo jump. ( I mean . . . after all Brazil had a record soybean crop and we all know how destructive that is to the American Soybean farmer. . . don't we?)
You see their Comic Book is so predictable that they will just photo copy past comic books which always project the erroneous scinero.
Also, it kinda looks like, everyone may be sitting this comic book report out, until it is published. I remember when the reports more or less coincided with what was really happening in the real world.
Well . . . I am sitting here in the cheap seats of the peanut section seeing which prognosticator came closest to what these three stooges in Washington publishes.
It is going to be interesting to see how they accomplis jumping both ways to keep old crop prices surpressed and bullish enough to raise prices in out months to attract the needed corn or soybean acres. Adios Amigos. John