Ag Talk | Agriculture.com
Reply
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,897
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk September 11

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The Dec. corn futures contract settled 4 cents higher at $4.72. The Nov. soybean futures contract closed 3 1/4 cents higher at $13.58. Dec. wheat futures finished 1 1/2 cents higher at $6.48 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures finished $2.80 per short ton higher at $428.00. The Dec. soyoil futures closed $0.11 lower at $42.96. 

One analyst says, "ow that crop reports come out at 11;00 a.m. central  with electronic and pit trading open , traders do not have to get positioned the day prior. This leaves trading narrow and two side while traders await report day."

 

Mike

---------

At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 1 cent lower at $4.68. The Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 2 cents higher at $13.56. Dec. wheat futures are trading 1 cent lower at $6.46 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $0.90 per short ton higher at $426.10. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.18 higher at $43.25. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.08 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 90 points higher.

 

The Renewable Fuels Association just summarized the EIA's weekly ethanol production numbers. Ethanol production is up, imports are down.

 

"According to EIA data, ethanol production averaged 848,000 barrels per day (b/d) — or 35.62 million gallons daily. That is up 29,000 b/d from the week before and a four-week high. The four-week average for ethanol production stood at 833,000 b/d for an annualized rate of 12.77 billion gallons.

Stocks of ethanol stood at 16.3 million barrels. That is a 0.3% increase from last week.

Imports of ethanol were 15,000 b/d, down from last week. Imports have been behind year-ago levels in five of the past six weeks."

 

Mike

--------------

At 10:30am:

 

The updated weather outlooks indicate a wetter 6-10 day for the Midwest. Also, a wetter pattern is looking likely for the rest of the month. Very interesting to think that we could have a wet pattern right before harvest.

 

Mike

------------

At the open:

The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 1 cent lower at $4.68. The Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 2 cents higher at $13.57. Dec. wheat futures are trading 1 cent lower at $6.46 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $0.90 per short ton higher at $426.10. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.05 higher at $43.12. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.03 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 12 points higher.

 

Mike

---------------

At 8:05am:

DEMAND News:

--USDA announces Wednesday that Nigeria bought 120,000 tons of U.S. HRW wheat for 2013-14 delivery.

--S. Korea flour mill buys U.S. wheat.

--China's 2013 corn output to reach a record 215 million tons.

--Argentina is expected to raise its 2013 corn export quota today by 3.0 mill. tons.

--Our Brazilian sources report: ‪"According to a release from Brazil’s National Supply Company, the country will harvest 187.09 million tons of grains in this year season. Compared to 2012, there was a 12.6 percent growth. Brazil had harvested in 2012 nearly 166.2 million tons. The total planted area of grains in the country was 131.8 million acres. The most significant jump on acreage was on the soybean area 6.6 million acres more to 68.4 million acres. Second corn crop increased 18.1 percent to 22.2 million acres. On the other hand, the total corn area just grew by 4.8 percent with a total of 39.2 million acres."

--I got a note from the U.S. Grains Council. It reports this: "The Taiwan Feed Industry Association on behalf of the Taiwanese Agricultural Goodwill Mission signed a letter of intent with the U.S. Grains Council on Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2013, committing to purchase 5 million metric tons (197 million bushels) of U.S. corn in 2014 and 2015. In addition, 0.5 million tons of distiller’s dried grains with solubles (DDGS) will be included in the memorandum.‬"

 

 

Mike

---------

At 7:30am:
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower to 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 1-2 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.03 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading lower, Apple earnings weighs.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher, Europe stocks higher.

 


More in a minute,

 

Mike

Veteran Contributor
Canuck5
Posts: 85
Registered: ‎04-23-2013
0

Re: Floor Talk September 11

[ Edited ]

from Allendale this morning,

 

.........Traders are concerned about what the USDA might say on the September Crop Production Report. Old crop soybean stocks and new crop yields are the most anticipated numbers. Allendale does not believe the USDA will adjust acres on the September report; they will likely wait until Oct.

Corn yields are estimated by the trade at 153.9, down from the 154.4 USDA projected in August.

Basis levels for corn continue to slide as more processors reduce bids by 35 to 50 cents. The premiums have given producers an incentive to harvest corn with high moisture levels. However farmer selling has come to a halt with basis deteriorating. Producers harvesting early planted corn are reporting yields of well over 200 bushels per acre.........

Community Manager
Jeff_a_Caldwell
Posts: 946
Registered: ‎04-29-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk September 11

Anybody catch a shower last night? There are these strange grayish things in the sky this morning and about half a dozen weird wet spots on the ground outside. Anybody know what this stuff is?! Ha!

 

So, sounds like 41.3-bushel beans and 153.9-bushel corn is what traders think USDA will guess for yields in tomorrow's report. How do those numbers hit you?

 

Here's a little more on what folks expect 

-----------------------------------------------
Jeff Caldwell
Agriculture.com Multimedia Editor
-----------------------------------------------
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,897
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk September 11

It really sounds like most expect the USDA to lower corn, soybean production numbers, Thursday. But, the ending stocks numbers may be up in the air. But, I also get this sense that a lot of folks are just unsure about tomorrow's report. Maybe it's a good time to sit on the sidelines and let the market digest the numbers, instead of getting in front of this one? Just a thought.

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 1,752
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk September 11

[ Edited ]

Nope ! No rain here - BUT Rushville got hammered around 3:30 to 4 : 30 -- trees down and looks like around a inch or more by the maps .

 

Now - heres a quote : One factor working in favor of the nation's soybean crop is it has in the past shown resilience to stressful weather late in the growing season. Last year's crop, for example, turned out better than some had expected, thanks to timely rains in early September

 

This was about last year - KEY word -- Timely rains  ! The beans went in later than last year - THEN throw in little to no rain - AND what is it like today ? Still NO rain - Somebody is dreaming on the beans  pulling one out of there azz on that one - Bean cutting will really pick up here next week - everybody is trying to get ready - this may be  a record for how they turned - shut down - or died so quick here .

 

 

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,897
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk September 11

ECIN,

 

One other thing the folks in North Dakota revealed to me. In August, they had two full moons. THat usually tells them that they won't have an early frost. The next full moon will be a harvest moon. I didn't know about this.

 

Do you think we can rely on astrological readings to lead the markets thoughts on early frost prospects?

 

Mike

Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 852
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk September 11

I agree ECIN, the beans didn't shut down from what I see.  They simply died.  Its easy to tell the difference by just looking at the field.  Beans that have died still have the leaves hanging on them, which is what I see around here and saw up by Detroit Lakes last week.  In my experience it's a pain to combine beans like that because you have so much trash floating around.  And like I saw up at Detroit Lakes, the dust is something else to deal with.

 

Jen

Contributor
puffster
Posts: 14
Registered: ‎04-11-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk September 11

I would agree ECIN..here in eastern kansas this last week put the hammer on any thoughts of beans doing the miracle September comeback.  Some starting to shell corn around here..high moisture and disappointing..some finishing up chopping the late corn. With the last week of 98 to 104 temps even the pastures that looked good 30 days ago are burning up..even a few fires.  So I guess all this adds up to the bean numbers will be a lot shorter than most traders have in their guess.  As I said earlier in my posts, i have sold what I thought might be 30%..looks like it might be 50 or 65% now. 

Veteran Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 1,752
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk September 11

Boy Mike -- I--- I don't know what to think about your last post there - heres part of it : Do you think we can rely on astrological readings to lead the markets thoughts on early frost prospects  ? astrological readings ??? --

 

Mike - I'm sorry here - BUT you were in N.D. yesterday right ? Talking to a college group ? huh  They didn't happen to be smokeing something that smelled funny and was playing the Mama's And Papa's on 8 track where they ?

 

But to answer your question -  I don't have a clue about the stars and planet's - but have seen them line up a couple of times - so I guess anything is possible .  :smileywink:

Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 2,921
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk September 11

[ Edited ]

ECIN,

 

yer dang right anything is poss -- Mike might of met up w/ Jen after the lecture, she could a taught him some about how she reads the astrological and star gas formations......one thing led to another, and they coulda' started talking 'bout other gases and such??????.......????????