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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,180
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk September 12 (Report Day)

[ Edited ]

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At the close:

The Dec. corn futures contract settled 6cents lower at $4.66. The Nov. soybean futures contract closed 37 cents higher at $13.96. Dec. wheat futures finished 5 cents higher at $6.53 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures finished $19.20 per short ton higher at $447.20. The Dec. soyoil futures closed $0.07 higher at $43.03.

 

Mike

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At 11:15am: Nov. soybeans are 5 cents higher at $13.62, after jumping as high as $13.78. Dec. corn is 14 cents lower at $14.58.

 

 

USDA/WASDE SAYS:

U.S. Corn Production= 13.84 billion bushels vs. previous estimate of 13.763 billion bushels and the average trade estimate of 13.640 billion.

U.S. Corn Yield= 155.3  bu./acre vs. its August estimate of 154.40 bu./acre and the average trade estimate of 153.69 bu./acre.

U.S. Soybean Production= 3.14 billion bushels, compared to its August estimate of 3.255 billion bushels and the average trade estimate of 3.14 billion.

U.S. Soybean Yield= 41.2 bu./acre vs. its August estimate of 42.60 bu./acre and the average trade estimate of 41.17 bu./acre.


Trade Reaction:

 

One floor trader says, "The report is supporting a buy bean sell corn bias…. That was in vogue during the August hot and dry… the price ratio will beg a switch to more bean acres this winter in Brazil versus corn..etc… so flat price does not necessarily have to rally as high this year relative to last provided good production prospects in Brazil…
 
However the report is supportive for beans and the concern is the Oct report will get smaller… near 40 bushel per acre…. So there is concern…corn has nothing 430-480 range goes lower if the weather in SA is good.

Beginning in the September crop report, the USDA gives pod counts for selected states (IL, IN, IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, OH, SD).  Other than last year, the cumulative total for these states are the lowest pod counts on record.  Taking it a step further, if we divide the yield by the count, the implication is that the USDA is using record high pod weights to arrive at today’s yield projection.  Obviously, the weather doesn’t imply that we will have very robust pod weights.  This argues for a further reduction to the US soybean yield in future projections."

--Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vice-president, says "Been crazy, I think USDA kind of punted on the bean production, but found lots of corn, that was the bearish surprise.  No increase in wheat demand despite strong sales  corn real bearish, the drop in ending stocks in beans a surprise the other way."

Tim Hannagan, Walsh Trading Inc. senior grain analyst says, "The market on beans are trading higher off the ending stocks number that has dropped the last three reports from 295 m.b. to 220 and now 150. Note , it was last years 125 m.b. ending stocks number that took us to historic high prices on beans."

Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, says, "Today’s report suggests that new crop soybean production is apparently not enough to both satisfy steady global demand for soy products and replenish the current tight soybean ending stock levels, which leaves us with continued tightness in the soybean balance sheet for the coming crop year. Corn production is quite robust, leaving room for some potential downward production adjustments in future reports. Plentiful supply and growth in ending stocks for corn is assured for the coming year, which should benefit end users. Lower priced corn means ethanol producers could have a banner year, which could potentially give consumers of ethanol based gasoline some welcome price relief at the pump. Wheat supplies will slightly outpace demand globally in the coming year,  leaving a healthy global wheat balance sheet."

 

--Peter Meyer, PIRA Energy Group analyst says, "The increase in corn yield was a surprise but a deeper dig shows it’s almost all based on the southern crops which we knew would be good.  Most farmers in Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa have said that their crops lost anywhere from 20-30 bpa in the late August heat and drought yet Indiana at 166 bpa and Illinois at 165 bpa were left unchanged while Iowa “only” lost 1 bpa month over month.  Looking back at ‘12/’13, the Ending Stocks number below perceived pipeline of 700 million bushels signals a real problem for the Quarterly Stocks report on the 30th.  With the aforementioned Stocks Report on the docket, and the September FSA data on tap next week, I would not get too involved with the reaction to today’s report in corn.
 
In beans, everyone knows we have a problem but the extent of it has still not been seen yet.  I expect that when all is said and done, the 2013 soybean crop will be smaller than the 2012 crop and once again we will either export or consume every last bean produced."

 

--John Roach, Roach Ag, says "Corn planted and harvested numbers remain unchanged so expect the October report to square up that side of corn production. Demand numbers were also left completely unchanged."

 

 

 

Reminder: Keep in mind that the Farm Service Agency will update U.S. prevent plant acres.

 

What do you thinK?

 

Mike

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Have you seen this?   OptionEye reports that option selling is indicating the Report could be negative for the corn market.

 

VIDEO: http://www.agriculture.com/videos/video-index

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 2 cents lower at $4.70. The Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 6 cents lower at $13.52. Dec. wheat futures are trading 1/4 of a cent lower at $6.47 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $5.00 per short ton higher at $422.90. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.01 lower at $42.95. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.08 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 3 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 8:15am:

 

USDA's Weekly Export Sales were weak:

 

Corn= 273,200 mt vs. the trade's thoughts of 400,000-500,000 mt

Soybeans= 468,200 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 650,000-800,000mt.

Wheat=535,900 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 450,000-650,000 mt

 

Mike

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At 7:15am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 5-7 cents lower, and wheat 1-2 cents lower.

 

Also, the USDA Crop Production Report and September Supply/Demand Report will be released at 11am CT. Watch for trade reaction and the numbers right here. Any guesses on whether the USDA will print such lower soybean and corn yields that the market will be bullish? OR, does the gov't play it safe and release neutral numbers?

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.08 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading flat, ahead of U.S. Jobless Claims Report.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher, Europe stocks mixed.

 


More in a minute,

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
farmer46
Posts: 220
Registered: ‎09-27-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk September 12 (Report Day)

I believe the workers at the USDA  use good information and put together a fair report.  Then the leadership of the USDA adjusts the numbers.  So the question is,  What numbers are needed to be released?

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,590
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk September 12 (Report Day)

My opinion?    They have had the totals that they have wanted to make public for a quite awhile.  They will work all the numbers backwards to make it come out like they want it.      :smileywink:

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,180
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk September 12 (Report Day)

roarintiger1,

 

Oh, c'mon. You don't believe that do you?

 

Mike

Frequent Contributor
sd/pa
Posts: 38
Registered: ‎09-29-2010

Exports

Started the new market year last week. Already 70% of the target corn exports sold and 61% of the target soybean exports sold. Substantially higher than in the preceding 5 years. Wheat sales % for 2013-14 is higher than previous four years. I wonder why the export sales query shows export sales much higher than the full export sales, 1,209 MMt and 1,407 MMt? Anyway very nice start to the new market year...

 

 

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,257
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: Exports

indeed sd/pa

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,590
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: Exports

Mike,   No, but it sure seems that way sometimes.   Besides, somebody had to say it.   :smileywink:

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Senior Contributor
jec22
Posts: 420
Registered: ‎06-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk September 12 (Report Day)

Beans are down 10.  Why, because of a report coming out that is two weeks old?  When yield reports are in the 20's and 30's.  Those yield reports and what the boots on the ground are seeing will cause farmers to bin and hold--unless they have already over sold.  Just like 2003.  Will there be better yields, you bet.  But there will also be worse ones.

The traders with their billions are playing farmerville, which means hogs can eat paper beans.  Then there is the real world.

 

Their pockets are much deeper than all of the current corn and bean crop, so we are in uncharted territory.  Throw the old rules out.  They can hold much longer than most.

So. IA
Frequent Contributor
CitiFarmer
Posts: 68
Registered: ‎06-27-2012
0

Re: Options selling

Just saw a Tweet that ADM bought 1000 $4.90 DEC Corn calls this morning.  If it is on the internet, it has to be true.

If I knew for sure, I would not be working for a living.
Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,127
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk September 12 (Report Day)

[ Edited ]

WTF, just because of lower sales than expected this Soybean market is down or is it just repositioning?  I thought people were thinking this coming report was going to be bullish for BEANS.