09-17-2012 07:06 AM - edited 09-17-2012 02:27 PM
At the close:
The Dec. futures corn contract settled 34 cents lower at $7.48. Nov. soybean futures contract finished at the exchange's 'limit' down trading level of 70 cents at $16.69. Dec. wheat futures closed 46 1/4 cents lower at $8.78 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract ended $1.98 lower at $55.39. The Dec. soymeal futures contract ended $20.00 per short ton lower at $505.40.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.33 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 52 points lower.
Tomorrow's CME Group soybean trading limit will rise to $1.05. Can you imagine if we were to take $1.80 off of the soybean market in just two days? Whew! That is scary.
The Dec. futures corn contract 31 1/4 cents lower at $7.50 3/4. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 70 cents lower at $16.69. Dec. wheat futures are trading 35 1/2 cents lower at $8.88 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $2.17 lower at $55.20. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $20.00 per short ton lower at $505.40.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.21 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 33 points lower.
One analyst says the markets are getting 'trashed' today, due to lots and lots of spec-selling.
"All spec-sellers are trying to go through the same door at the same time. We are in harvest and so specs are trying to take money off the table, but are going to have a tough time. Demand guys are holding back and waiting now," he says.
Farmers are getting out into the fields and seeing what they have, he says.
"They (farmers) are inclined to let it (crop) go at harvest, because of the aflatoxin fungus in corn and due to price for both corn and soybeans," he says.
He adds, "I think we can move to $16.25, for Nov soybeans and $7.00 Dec corn, over time."
It's interesting to note that some yield reports are not as bad as they could have been, he says. "This implies that maybe we got a better crop than we all thought, which makes what could happen after harvest much more difficult to call! But, today is about big time spec-selling with no buyers."
Soybeans have dropped 62 cents, corn is down 27 cents. Look out for the harvest low!!!!!!
At the open:
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 19 cents lower at $7.63. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 43 cents lower at $16.96. Dec. wheat futures are trading 25 cents lower at $8.98 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.78 lower at $56.59. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $15.90 per short ton lower at $509.50.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.30 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 10 points lower.
USDA announces that 210,000 mt of U.S. soybeans sold to an 'unknown' buyer for 2012-13 delivery.
Since this is old-crop, the market might see this as friendly. What say you?
Tom White, a CME Group corn pit trader and analyst for FutureRoad.net, says it's worth looking back at the technical factors to understand this week's corn market. In his own words:
"The market traded from the short side through Wednesday after getting follow through on a trend line break. It traded the same distance on the other side of the trend line as it had traded above the line.
The rebound on Thursday and Friday had us testing the mid-line on this pattern. The area that held also coincided with our rule 2 intra-day gap extension point.
There is another pattern which has not yet been confirmed; but if we do get confirmation, we could come back to test the Andrews pitchfork mid-line at some point during the week (812).
From a “longer-term” perspective, we have not yet confirmed that the move lower over the last several months is corrective. We can revert back to the daily chart to see that the market could have been in a corrective ABC pattern as part of a fourth wave. We still have not made lower lows on the dailies. We will monitor this situation as we certainly have not shown significant upside momentum as yet on the move off Wednesday’s lows. Thus, we’ll take a wait and see approach on the “longer-term” view of the market with a bias still that the move lower was, in fact, corrective. We do not have a major opinion for Monday. But stay tuned again for potential moves and patterns as the trading week commences," he says.
Early calls: Corn 12-13 cents lower, soybeans 25-27 cents lower, and wheat 12-13 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading sharply lower.
Crude Oil=$0.30 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening lower with increased global growth concerns. Also, there is a simmering spat between China and Japan that is bothering the market. The fear is China will stop importing key products from Japan. Why? China is mad that Japan nationalized some islands that China has interests in.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks are mostly higher, while Europe's stocks are lower.
More in a minute,
09-17-2012 07:30 AM - edited 09-17-2012 08:42 AM
The talk is that the market wants to see more of this U.S. corn brought in before a rally (buying) could occur. For instance, this afternoon's Crop Progress Report could show U.S. corn 25% harvested, and soybeans 10% harvested, according to some analysts. When corn hits that halfway point, which could happen towards the latter part of the month, more buying interest could re-enter the market. Until then, harvest activity, technicals, and weaker exports could keep the bears roam the floor.
09-17-2012 08:57 AM
Thank you. This thread could not exist without all of you guys and gals. Let's keep it going! We are really getting some nice marketing discussions going. Know that we appreciate everyone's efforts to keep this Floor Talk thread successful. We know harvest season can be very busy. So, we appreciate anytime that folks can devote to posting what the yield monitor is reading and how their marketing decisions are unfolding. Here we go, five days of opportunity up ahead.........!!!!!!!!!!
09-17-2012 10:17 AM
Went to Husker Harvest days on Thursday the day after the "great dirt blizzard" they had to close the show early last wednesday due to the high winds. I talked to a guy That lives around Grand Island, operates a feedlot, farms some on the side. He said on the sandy ground he has heard reports of IRRIGATED corn not making over 150 bu/ac just to dry. course the good ground is still making good yields but the cost to get it was rediculous. One of my friends from some of lincoln got done with his dryland, averages around 50. worst he had was 15bu/ac
Its a 50 mile trip from my house to LIncoln Ne, I would say 75% of the corn is out along that stretch. both the river terminal at Nebr. CIty and my local coop are filling their outside bunkers. Now I'm assuming that someone thinks corn will go up later, cause they aren't doing that for the exercise.
We did get a nice 2 inch rain last week. Really made the mood a little brighter, out at HHD they only got .50
Talk to a guy from western nebraska, its been so dry out there that some grass didn't even green up this spring. They have been having fires out there. Some ranchers are not only losing the little bit of grass they do have but hay also got lost.
In my opinion if you have any extra room in your freezer go buy some beef, if you like it cause it has a very good chance of going higher.
Harvest pressure will be short this year in my opinion. One thing the trade has to consider is most farmers are geared up to handle 2-3 times the amount of grain they are handling this year, and we are starting a full month early.
In my opinion corn goes back up eventually and retest the $8.49 area. weather or not it goes through this level depends on South America.
09-17-2012 10:45 AM
What is the volume of trade. Are we doing this on thin trade? Or are the producers trying to get a lot priced?
I'm not able to watch it much today.
Our area is still working on contracted grain except for the owner side of the ledger.