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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,097
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk September 19

[ Edited ]

See Full Story: Brazil's soybean planting starts early

 

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At the close:

The Dec. corn futures contract closed 3 1/4 cents higher at $4.59. The Nov. soybean futures contract settled 8 cents lower at $13.39. Dec. wheat futures ended 10 cents higher at $6.57 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures settled $5.40 per short ton lower at $420.40. The Dec. soyoil futures settled $0.25 higher at $42.96


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.14 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 44 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 10:55am:

The United Soybean Board announced Thursday that more soyoil is going to be needed this year for biodiesel production. Here is just an excerpt of the Board's announcement:

 

"In order to meet federal biodiesel-usage requirements of 1.28 billion gallons this year, manufacturers will need 9 billion pounds of vegetable oils and animal fats. At least 4.8 billion pounds of that could be soybean oil. That’s the oil from 430 million bushels of U.S. soybeans."

 

Mike

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At 8:25am:

USDA announces Thursday that an 'unknown' bought 120,000 mt of U.S. soybeans for 2013-14 delivery.

 

Meanwhile, Jeff Coleman, The Trean Group analyst and CME Group floor trader, says higher markets today based upon demand. "The big three grain markets are all pointing to an upside day for the second straight day session as soybean and wheat futures are posting double digit gains this morning with corn futures up slightly as well."

 

Mike

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At 7:40am:

 

USDA released its Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday:

 

Corn= 437,400 mt vs. the trade's thoughts of 350,000-650,000 mt.

 

Soybeans=923,300 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 450,000-800,000 mt.

 

Wheat= 701,900 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 400,000-800,000 mt.

 

 

Mike

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At 7:00am:
GOOD MORNING!

 

Early calls: Corn is seen 5-7 cents higher, soybeans 10-12 cents higher, and wheat 10-12 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.65 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading higher, as investors welcome the Fed Reserve 'non tapering' announcement yesterday.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher, Europe stocks higher.

 


More in a minute,

 

Mike

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,440
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Floor Talk September 19

Mike ------ Riding with the bears is like riding with my grandma.  Minotinous and the same story over & over & over -

 

Riding with the bulls is just more fun, like your first ride in a corvette, no words to describe the accelloration  :smileyhappy:

 

 

Well lets see ---------- We're going to print $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ ?????   again??    How long before the 2014 crop estimate comes out ??

sw
Senior Contributor
jec22
Posts: 410
Registered: ‎06-03-2010

Re: Floor Talk September 19

While the beans yields are still early and a small sample, it looks like IA could miss the mark by a good chunk.  Given the pressure from corn, what are the calls for bean prices if the crop is 3.0, 2.9, or 2.8? 

Combines should start rolling in beans next week if the weather is good.  So we will know a lot more then.  Corn here is still 2-3 weeks away.  Maybe sooner if we stay warm like the long term forecast suggest.  But with margins shrinking, and corn on this farm already much below insurance levels, it would be a poor business practice to add expensive drying to the expense column.  Thankful we aren't looking at high moisture levels on top of all the other issues.  So will the basis in IA actually be stronger than IL this year?  Why is 2014 new crop corn bid higher than 2013? 

 

So. IA
Advisor
rayjenkins
Posts: 674
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk September 19

Why is 2014 Dec corn futures 37 cents higher than Dec 13 ??

 

Because the carryout is going to be large enough that "someone" will get paid to lug corn ahead into the next marketing year...

 

At least that is what the market is saying today......if you disagree, there are ways to express that bias in the marketplace

 

Ray J

Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,266
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Re: Floor Talk September 19

Ray - or it could be that some very well followed weather prognosticators are anticipating another year like this one, with very little summertime precip.  Solar Max still has not occured, and actually, the sun has gone rather quiet again.  Solar max may not happen this year.  It's not unprecidented by any means.  And after solar max happens, we still will have 3 more years of extra solar activity.  And, we also have to look at the possibility of a La-nina in the Pacific and how it could affect SA production.  There's more in those numbers than you're looking at at this point, in my view.

 

Jen

Senior Contributor
jec22
Posts: 410
Registered: ‎06-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk September 19

Ray,  with some e plants paying +50 or Dec 13 corn, I think I will just worry about this years crop first.  Going to be the smallest corn crop for me to market in a while, even with  higher acres. 

So. IA
Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,440
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Floor Talk September 19

The insentive to store.  Storage.     Your saying,  If I overproduce the market will pay me more to store it into next year? Wow we made a killing with that one in the 60's.    Isn't it just the price level at which buyers and sellers are willing trade this far ahead.  

I thought it meant those who sell grain are willing to take less for cash now, and are not willing to take what's offered next year at this time.  Besides usda hasn't told us how much we will have to sell in 2014 yet.

I'm sorry I just forgot ----- The sellers are not really in the picture.  It's "our" grain the minute it gets harvested,   or planted,   or   predicted????

 

Sorry Ray, but it is a "lofty" expression of a "controled" market attitude and a difficult swallow for those who think they have some involvement with supply.

sw