Marketing

[marketeye]

At the close:

The Dec. futures corn contract settled 3 cents higher at $7.49. Nov. soybean futures contract closed 3 cents higher at $16.21 3/4. Dec. wheat futures ended 17 cents higher at $8.97 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract settled $0.22 lower at $54.83. The Dec. soymeal futures contract settled $2.90 per short ton higher at $486.00.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.08 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 13 points higher.

Mike

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At 1pm:

Soybeans have dropped to negative territory, again. A whipsaw day for the bean market. A lot of back-and-forth.

Meanwhile, Informa, the private analyst firm, released new U.S. Acreage estimates Friday:

Corn=97.5 million acres, with 11.093 billion bushel production.

Soybeans=79.9 million, with 2.662 billion bushel production.

Wheat=57.1 million

What do you all think of these numbers? Pretty high, about right, or still too low?

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 4 cents higher at $7.50. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 3 3/4 cents higher at $16.22. Dec. wheat futures are trading 17 cents higher at $8.97 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.03 lower at $55.02. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $2.20 per short ton higher at $485.30.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.08 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 24 points higher.

Mike

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At 10am:

Soybeans have turned lower, corn is headed that way. Weakness sets in early.

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 5 3/4 cents higher at $7.51. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 4 cents higher at $16.23. Dec. wheat futures are trading 10 cents higher at $8.89 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.12 lower at $54.93. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $2.20 per short ton higher at $485.30.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.08 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 48 points higher.

Mike

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At 8am:

--USDA announces that S. Korea bought 140,000 mt of U.S. soybean cake and meal Friday for 2012-13.

Mike

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At 6:50am:

--S. Korea buyer purchases 133,000 mt of corn from optional-origins believed to be South America and Europe.

--Russia is sending mixed messages on limiting grain exports. The Prime Minister is saying absolutely not, while the Economic Minister says that maybe the country will have to limit grain exports.

Mike

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At 6:30am:

Early calls:  Corn 5-7 cents higher, soybeans 5-7 cents higher, and wheat 8-10 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.08 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher on Spain's proposed rescue plan that focuses more on structural support vs. fiscal.

World=Higher.

More in a minute,

Mike

[Mizzou_Tiger]

Sounds like Russia is the new China........sweet little lies.......

[marketeye]

Mizzou_Tiger,

You might be onto something. Are you a buyer when these markets break? That's what I'm told folks should be thinking.

Mike

[Mizzou_Tiger]

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/russia-may-curb-grain-exports-after-all--5014.html

corn is close to a consolidation.......soya is a head scratcher.........

IMO we have at least one more wild day that could end with a rally close............

at that point you buy or cover shorts.............

[llakmf]

Tiger, did you see the story on Agrimony about sow liqudation froze up. Just a tiny bit at the first of the summer than nothing. Looks like beans will be wild. Not enough to go around. Also look at the bean export numbers.

[Palouser]

The Russians were either going to run out of exportable supplies or run the price up to where they were non competitive, and both at the same time. The Russian government does have a reserve this time.

EVEN BETTER, supposedly Ukraine has agreed to supplying 3 Million tons of corn to China next for $3 billion of credit. Their economy is really hurting and loan sharks (mafia) play a role in funding farmers, and I guess it's not pretty.

And wheat is now at a premium to corn so feeding of wheat is probably going to stop (for now) in many places on the globe, like Japan, Korea and China.

[asparagusa]

some country feeding wheat

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/21/japan-wheat-feed-idUSL4E8KL2DC20120921

[Mizzou_Tiger]

first off Mike, informa numbers mean nothing........acres mean nothing...........corn production number 1B too high.......soya are close but too high.......

as for soya........

things to think about........things I am pondering.........

1.  I agree that livestock thing is funny........all I see and hear is barns going up.........some pull backs and a few subsititutes here adn there and they are still feeding........and I have read several articles about hog boyz getting ready for a push........as with every cycle squeeze in livestock, the independent small guy gets squeezed, the big boyz pick up the slack on the swing up and in the end it rarely kills demand as much as we think.......

2.  Production, still think soya yields are going to be sad.......

3.  SA, time will tell there..........hear flooding.......hear drought........who knows........

4.  China, they are playing cat and mouse, hand to mouth, and toying with ideas of using reserves to bridge the gap to SA........if I read right, we have 75% of our export goal for this year already ear marked...........

5.  Wheat is setting up an acreage battle........however dry weather is making it interesting............more wheat means some DC soya, but less full season soya.........but DC are risky if we stay dry..........either way, pressure on acres......

6.  Farm Bill..........who knows........

7.  Harvest pressure vs traditional basis..........

8.  Last years little stunt...........

[sw363535]

mt.

Since the mizz got a little rain off the hurricane,  will wheat go in behind the corn in that area? or are those thoughts reserved the dryer regions to the west??

[Mizzou_Tiger]

Wheat was popular last year and will likely be again this year.......most areas got a shot of rain off the hurricane.......but we are still dry, some areas close to 7 inches since labor day and the cracks are still there and ponds are low......I think we are still 10 to 12 inches below normal......

So at any rate, we need timely rains and several of them still......but yes wheat is grown in mizz every year.....and this year with good prices will be no different, we can DC soya and in a decent year get 20 or 30 so not bad......

After the heavy corn year in the state and the arse wooping it took.........wheat and soya will be big this coming year.........

IMO a guy needs to be think about 13 soya protection......and let corn ride as I think we got a good one brewing.....