09-24-2012 06:31 AM - edited 09-24-2012 03:09 PM
After the close:
USDA says the U.S. corn crop is 39% harvested and the soybean harvest is 22% complete.
---------At the close:
The Dec. futures corn contract settled 3 1/2 cents lower at $7.44 3/4. Nov. soybean futures contract ended 11 3/4 cents lower at $16.10. Dec. wheat futures finished 5 1/4 cents lower at $8.92 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract settled $0.66 lower at $54.17. The Dec. soymeal futures contract finished $1.80 per short ton lower at $484.20.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.96 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 11 points higher.
The farm markets remain lower. One analyst sizes things up this way, "Markets continue their seasonal post growing season, harvest correction. With the worst yielding crops harvested first, were seeing the better yielding crops now and talk of generally better yields than thought prior. This looks to possibly see better condition numbers on tonight's crop condition report. The market ignored the Midwest frost Sunday night/Monday morning, as were thought to be to be too far along in the growing cycle to be damaged.
Supply side fundamentals of production take a back seat to trading funds booking late month end profits before they enter lightly long ahead of the next crop report. Traders won't be aggressive buyers, prior the report, with upside more limited to short covering, as many believe the better rain in August and early September, followed by improved crop condition ratings, could lead to an increase in production numbers on the October 11 USDA monthly crop report. This week's price break will be early in the week, as Friday we have the grain stocks report.Traders are thinking the early harvest may have more grain showing up in inventory, as of September 1. The late week bounce could be minimal, as the early harvest was largley the worst of our corn that went to silage," he says.
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 7 1/2 cents lower at $7.40 3/4. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 16 3/4 cents lower at $16.05. Dec. wheat futures are trading 11 1/4 cents lower at $8.86 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.96 lower at $53.87. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $2.60 per short ton lower at $483.40.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.58 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 34 points lower.
On Friday, USDA will release its Quarterly Stocks and Small Gain Production Reports. The stocks report will be the ending stocks estimates for corn and soybeans for the 2011/12 marketing year, and will also show wheat use for the first quarter of its marketing year.
The small grain summary will be the final production numbers for wheat and other small grains. If you missed it, Informa released its estimates late last week, with all wheat production at 2.273 billion bushels, just 5 million higher than USDA’s last estimate of 2.268 billion.
At the open:
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 6 1/2 cents lower at $7.41. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 24 cents lower at $15.97. Dec. wheat futures are trading 8 cents lower at $8.89 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $1.08 lower at $53.75. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $4.60 per short ton lower at $481.40.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.08 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 49 points lower.
USDA had no fresh exports to report this morning. This afternoon, the USDA Crop Progress Report is expected to show that corn harvest has reached 46% and soybeans 23%.
Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 12-14 cens lower, and wheat 2-4 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.08 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening lower with weak global prospects. Greece may have a much worse debt problem than first thought. France and Germany can't seem to agree on a bank union.
More in a minute,
09-24-2012 07:05 AM
09-24-2012 07:25 AM - edited 09-24-2012 07:31 AM
So, how's harvest going? The market wants to know. If you don't mind, I thought I would offer up what I found this weekend. This southcentral Iowa farmer was harvesting in a cornfield that had corn as tall as the combine windshield, and corn that measured shorter than 6'0. What a great weather-day for harvesting:
Look at how tall this corn is!!! For a reference point, I know the farmer is 6'0 ft. tall. So, what do you think, 12-ft. tall corn? It was easily the tallest corn I had ever seen. It reminded me of sugarcane from Brazil. This field had a lot of deer damage. But, these ears were so tall, the deer couldn't get to them, the farmer says. The yield monitor bounced way over 200 through this patch.
Just an example of what happens when the deer knock the cobs off of the stalk and then the combine tire rolls over it. You could really see a lot of ears of corn in the tire rows.
I witnessed corn moisture tester being used. This is corn that was taken at the top of a hill. It was drier than that tall corn in the photo above that was at the bottom of the hill.
Here's the readout. The corn was 17.8%. Though dry enough, this part of the field was only averaging around 80 bu./acre.
And then some of this set in. 'Downtime' did slow progress for a bit.
But, in the end. This is what you really like to see. Corn going into the truck. The farmer says the local basis is strong. "Somebody wants this corn. The bid is pretty good compared to what it normally is at harvest," the farmer says.
09-24-2012 08:42 AM
No. It just grew that tall. He picked it as I was in the combine. It was thick with corn. But, it was a small part of the whole field. Overall, his yields were avg to below what he expected. He's filling contracts, with a little left. But, that's about the extent of it.
09-24-2012 01:12 PM
Do you think that since we started harvest early this year that some New corn stocks will be counted on the Old corn number?
When that happens does that tighten up the 2013 year?